River Flood Warning 161, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
519 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 442 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

A quick update has been sent to extend the period of categorical
pops to the very early evening, along the Mississippi River, where
the cold front is slowly moving through. A look at satellite shows
cooling near SE Iowa, and this lift will move up along the front
over the next few hours, which is handled by the HRRR. Additional
rains should be 0.10 or less.

ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

Rain has been tapering off from S/W to N/E this afternoon, as
low pressure shifts from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin. Still
a few bands of mainly light rain exist over eastern Iowa into
Illinois near a vort max, with some spotty drizzle elsewhere.
The storm system brought heavy rains of 1 to 2 inches along and
west of the Mississippi River, with amounts tapering off further
east into Illinois. This heavy rain will lead to renewed rises
on some area rivers. Please refer to the hydro discussion below
for more information on the heavy rainfall and potential impacts
on area rivers. The next storm system in this active pattern
will follow quickly on the heels of this departing storm, and
spread rain back across the region Monday afternoon/Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

Pockets of drizzle and light rain will continue to diminish through
the evening with the frontal passage and low departing. Weak
high pressure will then build in overnight into Monday morning,
and may be accompanied by a transitory period of partial clearing.
Forecast lows are in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees tonight, but
these will be sensitive to sky cover/trends.

Break from the rain will be rather short-lived, as the next system
to impact the area already located upstream over the Northern Rockies.
This system will shift into the Midwest during the day Monday, and
spread rain back into the region mainly in the afternoon. This rain
will be much, much lighter and likely around 0.25 inch or less in the
presence of weaker dynamics (positive tilt trough), and less moisture.
Forecast highs are in the range of around 50 to the lower 50s banking
on some filtered sun many areas for a time in the morning, and then
followed up by warm advective S/SE winds gusty at times by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

Monday night and Tuesday...As the main sfc low migrates
northeastward acrs central IN, the last wave of showers/rain
associated with an inverted sfc trof and under the passing upper
level trof axis, will move northeastward acrs the CWA Monday
evening. The precip should wind down by midnight if not earlier, as
wake system west-northwesterlies start to flow in acrs the region.
Temps should start to cool advect into Tue morning with some upper
30s possible in the west by 12z Tue. Tue now looks dry with the
region bathed in tight cyclonic LLVL flow south of multi-center
cyclone complex acrs the northern GRT LKS. Fcst soundings show a
mixing regime up to at least H9 MB Tue, tapping into robust
northwest flow aloft surging into the area. Sounding profiles by
both the 12z NAM and GFS suggest enough wind mix down momentum
transfer to drive sfc winds into wind advisory criteria on Tue,
while the 12z ECMWF is more in the way of 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to
38 MPH. Early highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, before the CAA wind
machine brings about falling temps as the afternoon progresses. even
with some clouds and lingering mixing winds, cold air advection
itself to produce chilly Wed morning lows in the lower 30s, with a
few upper 20s possible. Wed morning wind chills in the lower 20s and
even some teens.

Wednesday and Thursday...Strong Canadian ridge axis dumping down the
plains and lee side in-building pressure gradient will continue to
make for blustery raw conditions on Wed, with highs only in the
upper 30s to low-mid 40s for most of the area. With any kind of
clear out and some sfc wind drop off with the sfc ridge arrival, Wed
night lows will be widespread 20s. After a cool Thu with highs
having trouble getting out of the 30s in a few locations and cold
core long wave upper trof pattern starts to establish acrs the mid
CONUS, eyes turn to the low pressure and isentropic lift process
developing on the southern edge of this process by Thu night for a
snow making system. With the 12z medium range model runs, they
continue to trend deeper with rounding upper jet energy and thus a
deeper digging trof. This would shunt the bulk of the precip making
processes to the south of the CWA for the period of concern, with
the GFS shifting things to the lower MS RVR valley and the
southeast. Even the latest 12z run ECMWF which had been bullish on
accumulating snows of several inches for the local area for Thu
night, now clips the southeastern third to quarter of the CWA with
just a half inch or less of snow accums into early Friday morning.
Will continue to watch this period with additional model runs for
adjustments, but the trends have been noted enough to reduce POPs.

Friday through next Sunday...The latest suite of medium range models
continue to set up a winter-like regime as high amplitude cold core
upper trof gets re-enforced from the northern plains to the GRT LKS
opening up the upper Midwest to the coldest air of the season so
far. Incoming thicknesses indicated by several longer range models
suggest highs mainly in the 30s and lows in the 20s-teens this
weekend period. While no real bi snow maker storms would be evident
in this regime, the area may be open up to more of a clipper system
scenario with one or two systems possible from Friday through the
weekend in or near the local fcst area with at least some swaths of
light snow accumulations possible. Trying to time and locate a path
north or south of such a system problematic at this juncture, but
both the 12z GFS and ECMWF generally target Sat night with a clipper
system either acrs the area or just to the north with the capability
of producing an inch or two along it's prime forcing wing.   ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

Only a narrow window of time will separate the decaying rain
event from tomorrow's new storm system. Tonight, light rains will
slowly end from near the Mississippi River eastward through 10 PM.
A gradual improvement from MVFR to VFR is expected overnight as
dry air arrives on west winds. However, but 18Z Monday, the next
storm arriving will bring light rain, and MVFR cigs back to the
entire area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches along and west of the
Mississippi River from late Saturday through today, will produce
considerable rises on some IA tributary rivers, with some eventual
rise impacts on the Mississippi River as well during the coming
week. The most impacted is the Iowa River basin which will have
forecast points experience rises to bankfull, above action stage,
and some spots may even surpass the flood stage during the coming
week. With still some limited confidence in lingering rainfall and
run-off effects, for now have issued River Flood Watches for four
points on the Iowa River with some chance of reaching or surpassing
the flood stage...Marengo, Lone Tree, Wapello, and Oakville. Routed
water as well as localized rainfall will produce rises on the Wapsi,
with De Witt now expected to rise to just under flood stage by
Tuesday afternoon.

On the Mississippi River...tributary input and local run-off will
halt the falling levels, producing rises on most of the stretch from
Dubuque on down to Gregory Landing during mid week through next
weekend. Current projections suggest that sites such as Rock Island
LD15, New Boston LD17, Keithsburg, and Gregory Landing to rise above
action stage by late week or next weekend. Even a few sites possibly
to reach or exceed the flood stage such as Gladstone LD18 and
Burlington next weekend. With some time to monitor the rise trends
and routed flow over the next few days, have held off a river flood
watch for these sites for now.

In northwest IL...expected rainfall and run-off today may produce
rises well above action stage through next weekend at Freeport on
the Pecatonica River, and Joslin on the Rock which may near the
flood stage by week's end.

Another storm system will then look to produce more rains across the
area from Monday into early Tuesday. Current indications suggest
only minor additional rainfall amounts of a quarter inch or less at
most sites by Tuesday morning, which should not add too much to the
projected river level trends.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Ervin
SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
303 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-052115-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
303 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Strong northwest winds are expected on Tuesday, with gusts
to 40 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
141 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW COU FALLS         41.82N 91.69W
11/04/2018  M1.30 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN HAD ENDED AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW NORTH LIBERTY     41.76N 91.62W
11/04/2018  M1.40 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EVENT TOTAL.

0653 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EDGEWOOD                42.64N 91.40W
11/04/2018  M1.55 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EVENT TOTAL.

0652 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW DAVENPORT          41.56N 90.61W
11/04/2018  M1.38 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EVENT TOTAL.

0450 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW CENTER JUNCTION    42.08N 91.11W
11/04/2018  M1.90 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0316 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N OAKDALE             41.71N 91.59W
11/04/2018  M1.52 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS