Excessive Heat Warning 2, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
308 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Severe MCS that started out in eastern NE early this morning and
has made it all the way into our southern cwa. This cluster of
storms has produced 60-80 mph winds all the way across eastern NE
and southern IA, but recently has shown signs of weakening
somewhat. Otherwise, large area of cirrus blow-off was across the
remainder of the cwa. Mid-afternoon temperatures were in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Headlines: Have replaced the heat advisory with an excessive heat
warning for Friday and Saturday with heat index values 105-110.

Tonight: MCS will continue to push rapidly eastward and should be
east and south of the dvn cwa by late afternoon. Then forecast
soundings indicate a strengthening cap at mid levels which should
suppress any convection the remainder of the night. Otherwise this
will be a warm and muggy night with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday: The big story will be hot and very humid conditions and an
excessive heat warning will be in effect beginning at 10 am. The
heat dome builds into the Midwest with 850 mb temperatures of +24
to 26c. With the gulf moisture combined with evapotranspiration
from the corn crop dewpoints will push to the mid to upper 70s.
Highs should rise into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values
soaring to 105 to 110. Needless to say this will be dangerous
heat for anyone outside or without air conditioning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This weekend: Hot and humid continues on Saturday with heat index
values once again at least 105. Therefore, the excessive heat
warning will continue through the day on Saturday. A cold front
will be approaching from the northwest with clouds and a chance of
thunderstorms arriving in our nw cwa Saturday evening, and then
probably weakening overnight. SPC has a marginal risk in our nw
for this severe potential Saturday evening.

I have noticed the past couple of model runs that they have slowed
the southeast progression of the cold front, as it runs into the
ridge to our east. This brings the front across the cwa on Sunday,
with another round of thunderstorms, possibly severe. With more
clouds and storms highs will be in the 80s.

Next week: Models suggest that a prolonged heat wave will be
setting up across the cwa as the center of the upper ridge sets
up shop in the Midwest, and the storm track shifts into Canada.
Appears that highs will be in the 90s for much of the first week
of July with minimal convection opportunities. See climate section
below for week 2.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

VFR conds for most areas through this taf cycle. Severe storms
should impact southeast IA and northeast MO this afternoon and may
impact KBRL, but for now have mentioned VCTS. Southeast to south
winds around 10 knots through this period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Overall, this mornings river forecasts have indicated either no
change or slightly lower levels than previous forecasts. Most of the
CWA has remained dry for the past 24 hrs.  Some storms moved across
parts of NE Missoui, extreme SE Iowa and adjacent portions of west
central Illinois earlier this morning, but this will not impact any
river forecasts.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Keokuk;
where it is forecast to rise two tenths of a foot over flood stage
Monday into Tuesday.  This was two tenths lower than the previous
forecast.  Flood warnings remain in place at Dubuque and from Fulton
to Gregory Landing with no flood category changes.

A slight secondary rise is expected on the Rock River at Joslin and
Moline over the next 12 to 24 hours before recedeing after 36 hours.
The Wapsi at De Witt will fall below flood stage tomorrow. The
Cedar River at Conesville will begin to crest tonight.

Will continue to watch the Iowa River at Wapello and Oakville
closely; as both sites approach flood stage over the next day or two.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Week 2...Longer range models indicate the heat wave to continue
into the middle of July with above normal temperatures and below
normal rainfall.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday
     for Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-
     Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-
     Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday
     for Bureau-Carroll-Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-
     McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-
     Whiteside.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday
     for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase
HYDROLOGY...14
CLIMATE...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
858 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-291400-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
858 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, southwest of a North English to
Keokuk line. A marginal risk exists southwest of a Waterloo, Iowa
to Woodhull, Illinois line. The main threat is damaging wind up to
70 mph.

There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon in southeast
Iowa and northeast Missouri. Thunderstorms are possible across
Illinois this evening and overnight.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Friday morning along
and east of the Mississippi River. At this time, severe weather
is not anticipated.

Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees are expected Friday
and Saturday, with Friday being the hottest day. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon.

Thunderstorms are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning,
mainly west of the Mississippi River. A few strong storms are
possible with heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning the
main threats.

There is a chance of thunderstorms again on Tuesday. It is too
early to determine the risk for severe weather.

Flooding will continue on area rivers. Please see the latest
Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon, mainly in
southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri.

Haase

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.59N 91.84W
06/28/2018                   CLARK              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED. 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWNED
            BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KEOKUK                  40.40N 91.39W
06/28/2018                   LEE                IA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN POSSIBLY 4 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT MADISON            40.62N 91.35W
06/28/2018                   LEE                IA   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN ON AVENUE F.

&&

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