Gale Watch 21, NWS Detroit, MI

672 
WHUS73 KDTX 032003
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
403 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALES DEVELOPING TOMORROW...

.Small Craft Advisories will be allowed to expire as northwest flow 
and resultant high wave action subsides steadily late this afternoon 
into this evening. Light winds overnight will increase from the 
southeast on Sunday as low pressure organizes to the west. A Gale 
Watch remains in effect for a large portion of Lake Huron open 
waters as well as the nearshore waters along the Thumb region from 
late Wednesday into Wednesday night as gusts to gale force will be 
possible as the pressure gradient strengthens in advance of this low 
and gust potential remains elevated given modest instability over 
the Great Lakes. The greatest potential for gale conditions will 
hold off until Sunday evening and then persist overnight. Gales will 
be possible again during the middle of next week as a strong low 
pressure system tracks through the region. This system will also 
bring widespread rainfall.

LHZ441-442-040815-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0073.000000T0000Z-181103T2000Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.181104T2100Z-181105T0900Z/
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
403 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 26 knots from the southeast with gusts up to 34 knots. 
  The largest expected significant waves will be 8 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 11 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Sunday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-462-463-040815-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.181104T2100Z-181105T0900Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
403 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 28 knots from the southeast with gusts up to 36 knots. 
  The largest expected significant waves will be 10 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EDT Monday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

AA

579 
WHUS73 KDTX 040154
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
954 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...Gusty winds develop Sunday afternoon and evening...

.Light winds overnight will increase from the southeast on Sunday
as low pressure organizes to the west. A Gale Watch remains in 
effect for a large portion of Lake Huron open waters as well as 
the nearshore waters along the Thumb region from late Wednesday 
into Wednesday night as gusts to gale force will be possible as 
the pressure gradient strengthens in advance of this low and gust 
potential remains elevated given modest instability over the Great
Lakes. The greatest potential for gale conditions will hold off 
until Sunday evening and then persist overnight. Gales will be 
possible again during the middle of next week as a strong low 
pressure system tracks through the region. This system will also 
bring widespread rainfall.

LHZ421-422-041400-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0074.181104T1700Z-181105T0900Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
954 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Small Craft Advisory which is in effect from noon Sunday to 4 AM
EST Monday. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Small Craft Advisory, expect 
  sustained winds up to 26 knots from the southeast with gusts 
  up to 32 knots. The largest expected significant waves will 
  be 7 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 10 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ443-041400-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0074.181104T1700Z-181105T0900Z/
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
954 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Small Craft Advisory which is in effect from noon Sunday to 4 AM
EST Monday. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Small Craft Advisory, expect 
  sustained winds up to 23 knots from the southeast with gusts 
  up to 30 knots. The largest expected significant waves will 
  be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EDT Sunday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ444-041400-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0074.181104T1700Z-181105T0300Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
954 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Small Craft Advisory which is in effect from noon to 10 PM EST
Sunday. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Small Craft Advisory, expect 
  sustained winds up to 17 knots from the southeast with gusts 
  up to 25 knots. The largest expected significant waves will 
  be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 1 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EDT Sunday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-441-442-462-463-041400-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.181104T2300Z-181105T0900Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
954 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

The Gale Watch is now in effect from Sunday evening through late
Sunday night. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 28 knots from the southeast with gusts up to 36 knots. 
  The largest expected significant waves will be 10 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 2 AM EDT Monday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

SC

055 
WHUS73 KDTX 040857
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...Gusty winds develop this afternoon and evening...

.Fresh southeast wind will develop over Lake Huron late today into 
early Monday. Relative stability will limit wind gust potential to 
nothing more than occasional near-gales or very brief gusts to 
marginal gales near the Mackinac Bridge. Small craft advisories for 
wind and elevated waves are in effect through this time. A strong 
low will lift through the central Great Lakes on Tuesday. Widespread 
southwest gales are likely Tuesday through Wednesday with some 
potential for a period high end gales conditional on intensity of 
the low. After a brief reprieve on Thursday, gales potentially 
return for the end of the week.

LEZ444-042100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0074.181104T1700Z-181105T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.A.0022.181106T1500Z-181108T0600Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a Gale
Watch which is in effect from Tuesday morning through late
Wednesday night. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 23 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 32 knots. 
  The largest expected significant waves will be 4 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 11 AM EST 
  Tuesday with the largest waves expected around 6 AM EST 
  Wednesday. 

the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462-463-042100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.181104T2300Z-181105T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.A.0022.181106T1500Z-181108T0600Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a Gale
Watch which is in effect from Tuesday morning through late
Wednesday night. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 29 knots from the west with gusts up to 41 knots. The 
  largest expected significant waves will be 10 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 1 AM EST 
  Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 2 AM EST 
  Wednesday. 

the Gale Watch has been cancelled. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ362-041000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.181104T2300Z-181105T0900Z/
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Gale Watch. 

$$

LHZ361-042100-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.181104T2300Z-181105T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0026.181105T0000Z-181105T0900Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a Gale
Warning which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
Monday. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Warning, expect sustained 
  winds up to 32 knots from the southeast with gusts up to 35 
  knots. The largest expected significant waves will be 11 feet 
  with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EST Monday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ441-442-042100-
/O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0074.181104T1700Z-181105T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.181104T2300Z-181105T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.A.0022.181106T1500Z-181108T0600Z/
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Small Craft Advisory which is in effect from noon today to 10 AM
EST Monday. a Gale Watch has also been issued. This Gale Watch is
in effect from Tuesday morning through late Wednesday night. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Small Craft Advisory, expect 
  sustained winds up to 26 knots from the southeast with gusts 
  up to 30 knots. The largest expected significant waves will 
  be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 11 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Sunday. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 25 knots from the west with gusts up to 38 knots. The 
  largest expected significant waves will be 6 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 1 AM EST 
  Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EST 
  Wednesday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ421-443-042100-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0074.181104T1700Z-181105T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.A.0022.181106T1500Z-181108T0600Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a Gale
Watch which is in effect from Tuesday morning through late
Wednesday night. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 24 knots from the west with gusts up to 37 knots. The 
  largest expected significant waves will be 6 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 1 AM EST 
  Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 2 AM EST 
  Wednesday. 

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from noon today to
10 AM EST Monday. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Small Craft Advisory, expect 
  sustained winds up to 26 knots from the southeast with gusts 
  up to 30 knots. The largest expected significant waves will 
  be 7 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 10 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EST Sunday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ422-042100-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0074.181104T1700Z-181105T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.A.0022.181106T1500Z-181108T0600Z/
Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a Gale
Watch which is in effect from Tuesday morning through late
Wednesday night. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 21 knots from the west with gusts up to 33 knots. The 
  largest expected significant waves will be 3 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 12 AM EST 
  Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 11 AM EST 
  Wednesday. 

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from noon today to
10 PM EST this evening. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Small Craft Advisory, expect 
  sustained winds up to 24 knots from the southeast with gusts 
  up to 27 knots. The largest expected significant waves will 
  be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EST Sunday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LHZ464-042100-
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.A.0022.181106T1500Z-181108T0600Z/
Lake St Clair-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
357 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a Gale
Watch which is in effect from Tuesday morning through late
Wednesday night. 

* WIND AND WAVES: During the Gale Watch, expect sustained winds 
  up to 24 knots from the west with gusts up to 35 knots. The 
  largest expected significant waves will be 6 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. 

* TIMING: The maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EST 
  Tuesday with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EST 
  Tuesday. 

Refer to the latest marine forecasts for greater detail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

CB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1254 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.AVIATION...

Low VFR cloud will persist through the night with lower
disorganized/sct coverage, but any MVFR cig is forecast to be highly
transient in nature. Wind will back to the WNW through early Saturday
with boundary layer growth contributing to persistence or
redevelopment of low VFR cigs and low end wind gusts.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for cigs aob 5kft

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

DISCUSSION...

The system which brought light to moderate rainfall overnight is now
over the eastern Great Lakes, while taking with it the strong
deformation forcing that supported the overnight rain showers. The
precipitation chances that remain for this afternoon and evening will
be mainly across the northern and eastern portions of the Thumb and
towards portions of I-69 east of Flint. Light rain showers and
drizzle conditions will be able to linger under the modest northerly
flow off of Lake Huron. The shallow precipitation will be supported
by higher near surface lapse rates and a moist boundary layer. The
lack of low level dry air advection into the region will keep mostly
cloudy conditions through the rest of today and mitigate any strong
diurnal temperature response. High temperatures today remain on track
to top out in the mid 40s. Rain chances decrease further overnight
and remain confined closer to the northern and eastern shorelines of
Huron County as winds back out of the northwest. Overnight low
temperatures across southeast Michigan will dip into the low to mid
30s.

A narrowing trough will pass to the east of Michigan overnight and
make way for rising mid and upper level heights tomorrow. This quick
passing shortwave ridge is in response to a strengthen trough
moving out of the Rockies during the day. Expecting a dry day with
winds shifting from northwest to the west by the afternoon. Wind
shift will help maintain lake moisture in the low levels, though a
some dry air will be present in the mid layers. Should be able to
see some sunshine tomorrow, though remaining cool with most
locations seeing afternoon highs in the 40s.

The aforementioned trough moving into the central plains will result
in a strengthening surface low that will be move into the western
Great Lakes by Sunday evening. This will result in a some warm air
advection as a warm front is drawn northward. Will maintain slight
chance PoPs during the first half of Sunday for the western portions
of the CWA as some scattered showers may be able to develop within
the region of warm air advection. Greatest areawide rain chances
will begin increasing towards the later part of Sunday and through
the overnight. The increasing southeasterly gradient flow throughout
the day will bring breezy conditions during the afternoon with high
temperatures able to climb into the 50s.

Dry weather is expected throughout most of the day on Monday as
temperatures remain seasonal with daytime highs peaking in the 50s
across the CWA. A highly dynamic low pressure system will strengthen
and move northeast from Illinois into northern lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening, which will have several
impacts across SE MI. A highly amplified negatively-tilted trough
will enter Tuesday morning through afternoon as an open low pressure
system closes in the mid-levels across northern lower Michigan.
Onset of rain chances will enter from south to north late Monday
into early Tuesday morning as WAA ahead of low pressure pushes into
Michigan, with forcing further enhanced by left-exit dynamics aloft.
Several PV anomalies will wrap around the closed low Tuesday morning
into afternoon and will aid in producing persistent rainfall,
moderate to heavy at times, as the low tracks north. Additionally, a
strong pressure gradient and strong low-level winds (925mb 40-45
knots at 12Z Tue - 00Z Wed per GFS) will aid in producing very windy
conditions at the surface, with persistent 30 - 35 mph, isolated 40
mph gusts.

Flow will quickly turn westerly behind the low as cool Canadian air
is advected in across Michigan, noted by h850 temperatures dropping
from 9C Tue 12Z to -2C 00Z Wed. CAA will increase mixing depths and
will allow gusty conditions to persist well into Wednesday as strong
low-level winds hold across Michigan. Temperatures, which are
forecasted to peak in the 50s to lower 60s by the late morning to
early afternoon hours on Tuesday, will quickly crater throughout the
afternoon and evening, diminishing down to the lower 40s early
Wednesday morning. Lingering lake effect rain chances will be
possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday before dry air in the low
to mid-levels diminishes lake effect chances.

A second low pressure system will bring additional precipitation
chances late Thursday into Friday. Too much uncertainty regarding
temperature to advertise precipitation type with high confidence,
however, at this time forecasted lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s
would be cold enough to support snow for northern counties and
perhaps more rain/snow across the northern Detroit area.
Temperatures will again hold to below normal values, with forecasted
highs in the low to mid-40s Thursday onwards.

MARINE...
Decreasing northerly winds will bring an end this evening to small
craft advisories in the nearshores of Lake Huron.  High pressure
will bring relatively light winds tonight through Saturday night. An
approaching strong low pressure system will increase winds from the
southeast during the day Sunday and Sunday night.  This will likely
bring small craft advisory winds and waves to Lake ST clair and the
nearshores of Lake Huron and Erie.  Gusts to gales will also be
possible in the open waters of Lake Huron Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...AA/AM
MARINE.......DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
354 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-032000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
354 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong low pressure system developing and moving through the Great
Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday will bring moderate to heavy rainfall
along with very breezy conditions. Gusts to 30-40 mph will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-032000-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
354 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Small craft advisories are in effect through this evening for the
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, including Outer Saginaw Bay. Refer to
latest marine forecast for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A series of low pressure system will bring unsettled boating
conditions Sunday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Gales will be likely these
days for the open waters and some nearshore zones.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

AA