Beach Hazards Statement 6, NWS Detroit, MI

554 
WHUS43 KDTX 241423
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1023 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018



MIZ048-049-055-063-241530-
/O.CAN.KDTX.BH.S.0006.000000T0000Z-180625T0000Z/
Bay-Huron-Sanilac-St. Clair-
1023 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Beach Hazards Statement. 



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
317 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A compact mid level wave now rotating across metro Chicago will
traverse the southern Mi border this morning. There will be a region
of enhanced deformation across Central Lower Mi on the northern
flank of this wave. This will occur within an axis of mid level
moisture (700mb dewpoints around +3C). Despite little in the way of
elevated instability, the enhanced forcing will be efficient in
sustaining a region of rain during the morning. Model soundings
within the mid level moist axis indicate a deep moist adiabatic
profile, with precip water values around 1.6 inches. So even though
thunder chances look minimal, locally high rainfall totals (in
excess of an inch) are of concern. Mid level dry air will advance
across the southern two thirds of the forecast area (south of the I-
69 corridor) this morning with the passage of this wave. This will
limit the rainfall through much of the morning to the Saginaw
Valley/thumb region.

The departure of the upper wave to the east this afternoon will
cause the mid level deformation to fall apart. The remnant moist axis
will then be forced south across the area supporting some scattered
showers. Daytime heating will cause weak destabilization across the
southern half of the forecast area, warranting a chance of a
thunderstorm. There will be some enhancement to the sfc
troughing/frontal boundary over Se Mi. By late morning this front is
forecast to bisect the area. The expected rain and increasing
north/northeast winds off Lake Huron will hold temps in the 60s
across the Saginaw Valley and thumb. Diurnal heating south of the
boundary will however allow afternoon highs to rise well into the
70s across metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south. As the front
pushes south during the afternoon, post frontal northerly winds will
offer a cooling trend into the evening hours.

High pressure now over northern Ontario will strengthen as it gets
driven into Great Lakes region tonight into Monday under an
amplifying mid level ridge across the area. This will send nighttime
temps down into the 50s (perhaps some upper 40s in the thumb).
Diurnal mixing under ample sun and dry air will boost Monday highs
into the 70s away from Lake Huron. This ridge will break down Tues
with the approach of a deep upper wave from the west. An influx of
moisture and instability will accompany this wave, supporting a good
chance for convection late Tues into Wednesday. Although the mid
level wave is forecast to weaken a bit, the upper trough is
currently forecast to pass across Se Mi sometime Wednesday. This
wave will have a decent wind field associated with it. If timing
lines up to where the upper trough slides across Se Mi during peak
heating on Wed (as shown by both GFS and ECMWF) severe convection
will be of concern.

The medium range model suite are in strong agreement in showing the
subtropical ridge expanding across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
during the end of the work week, then across the eastern Great
Lakes/Mid Atlantic over the weekend. This will result in hot and
humid conditions across Se Mi.

&&

.MARINE...

Broad and diffuse low pressure will continue to depart to the east
of the region today as high pressure builds in its wake. A
tightening pressure gradient will lead to moderate northeasterly
flow across much of the local waters, and especially across central
and southern Lake Huron including Saginaw Bay. Gusts will approach
25 knots at times today across the Lake Huron nearshore waters
leading to hazardous conditions for small craft. Scattered showers
will continue to be possible for much of today as low-level moisture
lingers. Drier weather will move in on Monday with slightly
diminished northeasterly flow below 20 knots as the high pressure
crests over the region. Winds will veer southeasterly Tuesday as a
low pressure system and attendant warm front approach the region
from the upper Mississippi River Valley. This system will bring
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms for the midweek
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered to locally numerous showers, and possibly a thunderstorm,
will continue to be possible for much of today mainly north of the I-
69 corridor. Slow movement and training of the shower activity will
lead to locally heavy rainfall possibly in excess of an inch of
accumulation. The locally heavy rainfall will lead to the potential
for some poor drainage flooding, and possibly localized flash
flooding where the heaviest rainfall totals occur. No river flooding
is anticipated due to low water levels. South of the I-69 corridor,
scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will also be possible
with rainfall amounts generally under a quarter of an inch. Drier
weather will move in this evening and continue into Monday as high
pressure builds across the region. Rain and thunderstorm chances
return Tuesday and continuing into the midweek period as a low
pressure system approaches from the upper Mississippi River Valley.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

AVIATION...

The surface trough centered roughly over PTK at midnight weakly
separates predominantly VFR to the south from a mix of MVFR and IFR
to the north. Open sky over SW Lower Michigan likely reaches the DTW
corridor before sunrise which should some light fog development
given the rainfall that occurred there last evening. Farther north,
IFR ceiling at MBS will be reinforced by northerly flow from the
northern Great Lakes and by increasing coverage of showers toward
sunrise and through the morning. These conditions will settle
southward with the associated cold front during the afternoon. IFR
is less likely at DTW with the frontal passage late in the daytime
heating cycle.

For DTW... VFR mixed with MVFR ceiling and light fog are the only
concerns through sunrise. Increasing coverage of low clouds and
showers will then be possible as a cold front moves through the
region during the afternoon. Thunderstorm potential remains low.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less during the night becoming
  high during the morning through afternoon.

* Low for thunderstorms during afternoon.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MIZ048-049-055-063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Monday
     for LHZ441>443.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......IRL
HYDROLOGY....IRL
AVIATION.....BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1057 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083-240745-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
1057 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron, Lake St Clair and southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of heavy rainfall in the Tri Cities and northern
Thumb region late tonight. This will be due to another round of
showers developing across central Lower Michigan that will have very
slow movement. There is only a slight chance of thunderstorms with
this activity and no hail or damaging wind is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a continued chance of heavy rainfall in the Tri Cities and
northern Thumb region down toward the I-69 corridor during Sunday
morning. Showers expected to develop over central Lower Michigan
late tonight will continue through Sunday morning. There is only a
slight chance of thunderstorms with this activity and no hail or
damaging wind is expected.

The next low pressure system is projected to track across the region
Tuesday and Tuesday night and bring the next chance for
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LHZ361>363-240745-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
1057 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Huron.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The next low pressure system is projected to track across the region
Tuesday and Tuesday night and bring the next chance for
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SOUTHGATE               42.20N 83.21W
06/23/2018  M1.34 INCH       WAYNE              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAILY RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

IRL