Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
706 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

...Updated for Near Term Weather Trends and 12z Aviation
Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

Have cancelled the remainder of the severe thunderstorm watch
with strongest part of the storms moving east of our forecast
area. Have seen some stronger wind gusts behind the main line
under the stratiform rain area, which is likely gusts behind
entrained to the surface vs a wake low as ambient winds behind
this area have returned to light and from the south or southeast.
Another area of storms is moving into northwest Iowa with GLM
showing a persistent core, but severe risk should be low with
these storms moving into a worked over environment. SPC
mesoanalysis shows weaker shear than earlier of 25 to 30 knots,
but still plenty of MUCAPE to work with. With less than stellar
CAM performance, Will maintain some PoPs across the north as this
moves eastward this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Saturday/
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

Severe thunderstorms complex over southeastern South Dakota has
entered northwest Iowa at 3am. These storms have been in an area of
weaker inhibition, high instability, and high shear per recent SPC
mesoanalysis. GOES-East clean infrared channel showed an increase in
overshooting tops from 5 to 7z with latest imagery showing
temperatures with these tops of -65 to -70C. Trends in GLM are
overall downward, though continue to maintain a high number of
flashes with the western end of the bow entering Iowa at 330am. As
these storms move farther into Iowa, they will be moving into an
environment of stronger inhibition with weaker instability as the
best shear moves to the northeast. Primary concern will be gusty
winds with hail threat waning. Latest run of convective allowing
models (CAMs) are not handling the current situation as well as the
previous run or two. The HRRR and ESRL HRRR along with the NBM PPI01
had a fairly good handle and used those to populate PoPs from now
through midday.

Otherwise today, next series of shortwave troughs will be
approaching from the central Rockies this morning reaching Iowa by
this afternoon. With lingering convective cloud debris and showers
or storms from overnight complex, this should foster a cooler
environment over northern Iowa. Meanwhile farther south over
southern Iowa, a more sunny sky with southerly winds will boost
temperatures well into the 90s. With contrast in temperatures, will
have a baroclinic zone/warm front with models indicating this
generally over northern Iowa. Depending on degree of recovery,
should have at least moderate instability with MLCAPE values between
1500 and 2500 J/kg with deep layer shear increasing this afternoon
into this evening as low level jet ramps up. With speed shear
increasing and directional shear already in place, may have a small
window of a tornado threat this afternoon over northern areas.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail, though, will be the primary
threat throughout the afternoon into the evening. There will also be
heavy rainfall with good moisture transport into the state, deep
warm cloud depths of 11,000 feet and precipitable water values of
1.5 to 2 inches tonight. Mean layer flow is 20 to 30 knots, but with
orientation quasi-parallel to the boundary, will see some training.
Global models minus the NAM and CAMs show northern Iowa as the
favored location for the highest rainfall amounts, which will be
generally between 0.75 to 1.75 inches with a few localized higher
amounts by Monday morning. Widespread flash flooding concerns are
mitigated by recent dry weather and mature crops that could use some
rainfall. Any flash flooding would be limited to an urban area.
Unfortunately, drought stricken southern Iowa will have only paltry
rain amounts if any.

Showers and storms will linger on Monday as mid-level shortwaves
pass over the state and surface front slowly drops southeastward.
Modest instability will develop by the afternoon with strong deep
layer shear of 40 to 50 knots in place. Overall severe risk is
uncertain with SPC lowering from slight over northeast Iowa to
marginal over central and southern Iowa. This is due to uncertainty
in the location of the front and the lingering morning
precipitation.

Beyond Monday, flow will begin to transition to northwest on Tuesday
as the shortwave troughs exit to the east, which will allow for
subsidence and an end to the active pattern. As the ridge amplifies
over the western US and northwest flow is established over the area,
will have sporadic showers or thunderstorms, but challenging to
define those well this far out. Best chance may be on Thursday as
upper level forcing drops through the region. Toward late this week
into next weekend, the ridge over the west will begin to translate
eastward with signs of troughing entering the Pacific Northwest late
next weekend. This will mean rising temperatures toward the end of
the week just in time for the state fair with highs in the middle
80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning/
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

Overnight line of thunderstorms will exit the area in the next
hour to two hours with attention turning to northwest Iowa where
a new area of thunderstorms is already arriving. These may bring
impacts to MCW later this morning, but uncertainty if they will
maintain as they move through the area that just had storms.
Later today expect additional showers and storms to develop over
northern Iowa and sink southward overnight. For now, have handled
with VCTS to start with SHRA/VCTS during the most likely time of
storms at MCW/FOD/ALO. Future TAFs will likely adding DSM to this
group and adjust for any expected impacts.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

UPDATE...Ansorge
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
502 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>084-092>094-061015-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
502 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather with the
primary threats being damaging wind gusts and large hail. An
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out over northern Iowa
this afternoon. Locally heavy rain will also be possible late this
afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Chances for strong to perhaps severe storms will be possible later
Monday with the best chances over central to southern Iowa. Otherwise,
there will be isolated and sporadic chances for storms later in
the week with the severe weather potential yet to be determined.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed Sunday afternoon through early Monday
morning.

IAZ085-086-095>097-061015-
Monroe-Wapello-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
502 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints in the low 60s will
create heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

A few strong storms will be possible late tonight into early
Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Chances for strong to perhaps severe storms will be possible later
Monday with the best chances over central to southern Iowa. Otherwise,
there will be isolated and sporadic chances for storms later in
the week with the severe weather potential yet to be determined.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed late tonight through early Monday morning.

Ansorge

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
510 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

IAZ045>047-057>059-051100-
Guthrie IA-Boone IA-Audubon IA-Greene IA-Carroll IA-Dallas IA-
510 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 510 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles west of Gowrie to Manning. Movement was
southeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Boone, Carroll, Perry, Jefferson, Audubon, Guthrie Center, Madrid,
Ogden, Manning, Coon Rapids, Glidden, Woodward, Lake Panorama, Boone
Speedway, Grand Junction, Scranton, Bayard, Churdan, Templeton and
Bagley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4202 9509 4214 9493 4221 9471 4221 9380
      4186 9382 4160 9483 4181 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 303DEG 37KT 4223 9444 4193 9508

Beerends

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
541 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

IAZ037-047>049-059>061-051115-
Story IA-Boone IA-Jasper IA-Polk IA-Hardin IA-Marshall IA-Dallas IA-
541 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE...

At 541 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northeast of Roland to near Ames to
near Madrid. Movement was southeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Des Moines, Ames, West Des Moines, Ankeny, Urbandale, Marshalltown,
Johnston, Clive, Newton, Altoona, Waukee, Pleasant Hill, Grimes,
Nevada, Windsor Heights, Bondurant, Polk City, Huxley, Saylorville
and Madrid.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4169 9301 4151 9374 4151 9380 4194 9405
      4206 9365 4221 9352 4221 9346 4228 9346
      4240 9336 4202 9277 4199 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1041Z 307DEG 52KT 4229 9333 4201 9357 4192 9388

Beerends

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
608 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

IAZ027-028-038-039-049-050-051145-
Black Hawk IA-Bremer IA-Tama IA-Grundy IA-Marshall IA-Butler IA-
608 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE...

At 608 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Nashua to near Dike to 6 miles north of
Marshalltown. Movement was east at 60 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waterloo, Cedar Falls, Waverly, Grundy Center, Toledo, Evansdale,
Tama, Jesup, La Porte City, Hudson, Sumner, Denver, Traer, Reinbeck,
Dysart, Tripoli, Shell Rock, Dike, Elk Run Heights and Waterloo
Municipal Airport.

LAT...LON 4230 9230 4191 9230 4189 9232 4210 9294
      4251 9266 4291 9257 4291 9208 4230 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1108Z 269DEG 51KT 4290 9250 4251 9258 4213 9290

Beerends

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
719 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

IAZ075-084>086-095>097-051315-
Wapello IA-Appanoose IA-Wayne IA-Lucas IA-Davis IA-Mahaska IA-
Monroe IA-
719 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

...Wind Gusts Between 30 to 40 MPH Possible...

At 717 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorm over Eddyville, or 9 miles south of Oskaloosa, moving
southeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 to possibly 40 mph will be possible with this
storm with the winds occurring ahead of any rain.

Locations impacted include...
Ottumwa, Centerville, Albia, Bloomfield, Eddyville, Ottumwa
Industrial Airport, Lake Sundown, Rathbun Lake, Eldon, Fremont,
Seymour, Moravia, Agency, Moulton, Mystic, Cincinnati, Blakesburg,
Pulaski, Drakesville and Kirkville.

LAT...LON 4100 9318 4117 9265 4134 9242 4133 9241
      4116 9241 4116 9218 4060 9218 4058 9309
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 318DEG 37KT 4116 9263

Ansorge