Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Des Moines, IA

458 
WWUS53 KDMX 182013
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
313 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

IAC001-049-077-121-182045-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0292.000000T0000Z-180918T2045Z/
Madison IA-Guthrie IA-Adair IA-Dallas IA-
313 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE...CENTRAL ADAIR AND
SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTIES...

At 312 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stuart, or 9
miles north of Greenfield, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 300 PM, a wind gust of 60 mph 
         was reported about 2 miles southeast of Adair by the Iowa 
         DOT.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Greenfield, Stuart, Earlham, Redfield, Dexter, Casey, Diamondhead
Lake, Menlo, Greenfield Municipal Airport and Nodaway Park.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 80 and 104.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Des Moines.

&&

LAT...LON 4135 9467 4162 9448 4163 9404 4120 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 286DEG 29KT 4144 9441 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MF

396 
WWUS53 KDMX 182024
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
324 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

IAC001-049-077-121-182045-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0292.000000T0000Z-180918T2045Z/
Madison IA-Guthrie IA-Adair IA-Dallas IA-
324 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE...NORTHEASTERN ADAIR
AND SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTIES...

At 324 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stuart, or 11
miles northeast of Greenfield, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Greenfield, Stuart, Earlham, Redfield, Dexter, Diamondhead Lake,
Menlo, Greenfield Municipal Airport and Nodaway Park.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 86 and 104.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Des Moines .

&&

LAT...LON 4133 9461 4145 9447 4162 9439 4163 9404
      4120 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 286DEG 29KT 4141 9428 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MF

255 
WWUS53 KDMX 182035
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

IAC001-049-077-121-182045-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0292.000000T0000Z-180918T2045Z/
Madison IA-Guthrie IA-Adair IA-Dallas IA-
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...
SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE...NORTHEASTERN ADAIR AND SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4133 9461 4145 9447 4162 9439 4163 9404
      4120 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 286DEG 29KT 4139 9418 

$$

MF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

...Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

A more active pattern will emerge today into tonight as the
westerlies drop a bit farther south through the Midwest today.
Surface front currently resides near the IA/MN border early this
morning with the warm sector in place across Iowa. Elevated
convection has developed across central Minnesota near the 850mb
boundary with additional convection rolling from central into
eastern South Dakota this morning. The CAM models have been overly
aggressive with bringing precipitation into the state overnight.
The NAM and Euro have been a bit better in keeping pcpn north of
the state for much of the night but eventually sagging pcpn south
into Iowa after daybreak. This seems more logical given recent
radar trends as convection from South Dakota will likely arrive in
northern Iowa after 12Z along with additional convection in the
warm advection zone in MN dropping south as well. Models drop this
convection southeast through northern and eventually eastern Iowa
by early afternoon. Confidence in the evolution of convection
beyond this time is tenuous at best.

All models increase the low level moisture transport this evening
into the overnight into far northern IA and southern MN.
Convection is likely to break out late afternoon/evening in SE
South Dakota and eventually move east southeast in the mean flow
across northern Iowa tonight. Given the high precipitable water,
relatively deep warm cloud layer and generally not overpowering
updrafts, warm cloud processes appear likely in rain formation
with efficient production. Heavy rainfall appears likely across
the north tonight with training possible along and north of the
surface front which will be stretched across the state. WPC has
this area highlighted as well for the potential of excessive
rainfall later tonight and a watch for flash flooding may be
needed for this time. Any severe threat would likely be during the
evening and primarily from large hail and possibly a strong wind
gust.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

The main synoptic boundary will be lifting northward early on
Wednesday primarily into Minnesota with much of Iowa in the warm
sector. This should take the main focus for storm development to
the north of the state, although lingering convection on Wednesday
morning is likely in the north. Another unseasonably warm day is
expected along with dewpoints near 70 which may cause issues for
outdoor sports and activities and will highlight this potential in
various products. The bulk of thunderstorms on Wednesday night
will be north of the state into Minnesota where the boundary will
reside and the low level moisture transport will be focused
although any deviation of the frontal position to the south would
put northern Iowa in a worse position.

Surface wave will move quickly north on Thursday through Minnesota
and Wisconsin with cold front trailing through Iowa. Airmass will
remain warm and humid ahead of the front producing one more day of
well above normal temperatures across the southeast half of the
forecast area. Winds should be strong from the southwest ahead of
the boundary with around 40 kts at the top of the mixed layer so
near advisory winds may occur ahead of the front. Convection is
expected to develop ahead of the boundary by early to mid
afternoon as the capping eventually weakens. Decent instability of
1500-2500 J/KG with a strong unidirectional wind profile should
produce some strong linear convection with the threat of large
hail and damaging winds. This convection will slide east by
Thursday night with much cooler air arriving as a Canadian high
slides into the Midwest. This will provide relatively quiet
conditions through the weekend with warming temperatures again by
Sunday. Convection appears likely again by later Monday into
Tuesday of next week as the next boundary arrives.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon/
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

TAFs incredibly messy this forecast period. For the next few hours
KDSM and KOTM will be dealing with scattered thunderstorms and
strong wind gusts. Have removed precip from these sites after this
thunderstorm activity has passed... will need to monitor closely
throughout the evening in case need to add thunder returns.

Northern TAF sites have SHRA forecast. There may be a few rumbles
of thunder, but at this time, have predominately left out
thunder... will need to monitor for potential to add thunder back
in as well. Precip begin and end times will likely need fine-
tuning, along with vsbys.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cogil
LONG TERM...Cogil
AVIATION...Kotenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
405 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-190915-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-
405 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight, with the potential
for a few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall and
associated water issues. The main severe weather risk will be for
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for thunderstorms are expected to continue Wednesday and
Thursday. The risk Wednesday will be best over far northern Iowa,
then more widespread Thursday. There will be the potential for
strong and severe storms Thursday, including the potential for
damaging winds, large hail, and periods of heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports are welcome, though spotter activation is not
anticipated at this time.

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-190915-
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-
Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-
Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-
Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
405 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A few thunderstorms may move through portions of central and
eastern Iowa through the afternoon and evening, with a marginal risk
for strong to severe storms. The main risk will be for hail and
periods of locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Storm chances will remain across northern Iowa Wednesday, then
spread across the state Thursday. There will be the potential for
strong and severe storms Thursday, including the potential for
damaging winds, large hail, and periods of heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports are welcome, though spotter activation is not
anticipated at this time.

CURTIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE KLEMME             43.03N 93.56W
09/18/2018  M3.19 INCH       HANCOCK            IA   PUBLIC

            MEASURED AT HOME WEATHER STATION.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1112 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     HAIL             KELLOGG                 41.72N 92.91W
09/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       JASPER             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1125 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

IAZ058>062-070>075-081>086-181730-
Wapello IA-Guthrie IA-Poweshiek IA-Marion IA-Jasper IA-Polk IA-
Union IA-Madison IA-Cass IA-Adams IA-Clarke IA-Lucas IA-Adair IA-
Mahaska IA-Monroe IA-Dallas IA-Warren IA-
1125 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

...Storms with Gusty Wind Continue to Move through Central Iowa...

At 1121 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking the leading edge of
outflow and wind from strong thunderstorms along a line extending
from 13 miles southeast of Atlantic, to Saint Charles, to 8 miles
east of Oskaloosa. Movement was south southwest at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms. The wind shift and gusts may occur ahead of the storms
and precipitation with gusts during the rain and storms as well.
Rainfall amounts up to one inch will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Des Moines, West Des Moines, Ankeny, Urbandale, Johnston, Clive,
Newton, Indianola, Altoona, Waukee, Oskaloosa, Pella, Grinnell,
Norwalk, Pleasant Hill, Grimes, Creston, Knoxville, Winterset and
Osceola.

LAT...LON 4151 9232 4151 9241 4133 9241 4090 9262
      4091 9493 4105 9493 4181 9453 4182 9230
      4155 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 028DEG 22KT 4129 9478 4136 9371 4130 9249

Small

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1135 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 AM     HAIL             5 WNW VALERIA           41.75N 93.41W
09/18/2018  E0.75 INCH       POLK               IA   PUBLIC

            BRIEF PENNY SIZED HAIL 3 NE OF BONDURANT.
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

BSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
246 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

IAZ058-071-182045-
Guthrie IA-Adair IA-
246 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

...Strong Thunderstorm over Western Iowa...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southwest of Guthrie Center, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, Dexter, Casey, Diamondhead
Lake, Menlo, Greenfield Municipal Airport and Nodaway Park.

LAT...LON 4131 9470 4160 9470 4160 9472 4165 9472
      4156 9424 4116 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 295DEG 28KT 4150 9468

Small

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE ANITA             41.50N 94.73W
09/18/2018  M60 MPH          CASS               IA   MESONET

            IDOT RWIS SITE ALONG I-80 WEST OF ADAIR.

&&

BSS