Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Des Moines, IA

600 
WWUS53 KDMX 012223
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
523 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2018

IAC081-012232-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-180801T2245Z/
Hancock IA-
523 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

LAT...LON 4283 9361 4285 9370 4291 9366 4291 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 282DEG 21KT 4289 9352 

$$

IAC197-012245-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-180801T2245Z/
Wright IA-
523 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL WRIGHT COUNTY...

At 522 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Belmond, or 14
miles south of Garner, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Belmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4283 9361 4285 9370 4291 9366 4291 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 282DEG 21KT 4289 9352 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hagenhoff

337 
WWUS53 KDMX 012230
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
530 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2018

IAC197-012240-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-180801T2245Z/
Wright IA-
530 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WRIGHT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

LAT...LON 4283 9361 4285 9370 4291 9366 4291 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 282DEG 21KT 4288 9346 

$$

Hagenhoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
351 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Relatively quiet weather continues throughout much of the
forecast with a few isolated storms still possible this afternoon
into the evening with the cold frontal passage. Otherwise, the
focus of the forecast was on the heat building back into the
region and a periodic storm chances over the weekend into early
next week.

Cold front slowly creeping into northwest Iowa late this afternoon
will continue progress southeast this evening. The latest hires
models, especially the HRRR and ESRL HRRR, have the best handle on
the current radar trends and depictions through late this
evening. There is limited instability due to the weak shower/cloud
cover from southwest to northeast Iowa through the day and shear
remains low or even non existence. Not much going for severe
weather chances later this afternoon into the evening, but still
cannot rule out an isolated threat for now.

Surface high pressure builds into the state tonight into Thursday
providing cool and dry conditions. This high shifts east through
the day Friday and return flow begins to develop from west to
east across the forecast area. The ECMWF is a bit stronger and
faster with a shortwave to cut across the region late Saturday
into Saturday evening. Certainly looks to be a breezy and warm day
Saturday and confident to nudge up wind gusts a couple of knots.
Winds near the mix layer range from 28-36 knots but with forecast
soundings suggesting some high clouds, this should limited some of
the deep mixing. Regardless, the surface pressure gradient
increases and mixing is likely to be enough for wind gusts around
25 mph or slightly higher Saturday afternoon. 850mb temperatures
still progged to range from +20C to +22C Saturday afternoon and
Sunday afternoon, and thus warm temperatures on track for the
weekend. Surface dew points remain in the lower to middle 60s and
not anticipating significant heat index values over the weekend.

Sunday night into Monday, the ECMWF and GFS are in decent
agreement with another shortwave riding the westerly flow into
the region. Timing and location looks to be b/t 00-12z Monday and
over central to northern Iowa. Severe potential remains uncertain,
but instability increases Sunday afternoon there is decent shear
present Sunday night into Monday. Certainly something to continue
to monitor if models continue to converge on timing and location.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Convection has yet to increase...with mainly light showers north
sites at this time. Front expected to focus convection from
northwest Iowa to central Iowa between 20z and 03z...weakening
with time. Winds mixing to near 18kts through 23z otherwise light
northwest winds aft 05z. Hires models now more adamant in bringing
in MVFR/possible IFR stratus following the boundary from 08z
through 15z north and northeast sites KFOD/KMCW/KALO/KDSM...though
less confidence on extent of IFR conditions...have lowered cigs to
MVFR most locations aft 08z. /rev

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...REV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
325 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-022030-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
325 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon over northern Iowa. A few of the storms may reach severe
levels across northern Iowa late this afternoon and toward central
Iowa into the evening. The primary threats are large hail and strong
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional intermittent chances for thunderstorms are forecast
Saturday through Monday. The severe weather threat is uncertain
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed briefly this late this afternoon
and into the evening.

REV