Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Des Moines, IA

308 
WWUS53 KDMX 010218
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
918 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

IAC001-077-121-010228-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-180701T0215Z/
Madison IA-Guthrie IA-Adair IA-
918 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...
SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE AND ADAIR COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4151 9470 4158 9437 4159 9425 4158 9424
      4151 9424 4150 9417 4139 9407 4124 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 234DEG 38KT 4156 9416 

$$

Beerends

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
640 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Main concern is the next 18 hours as a boundary and decent
shortwave pass through the state. Currently, convection is
developing near the surface front in northern Iowa. Strong
instability exists in the warm sector with MUCapes of 4000-5000
j/kg and Downdraft Capes of 1300-1500. Severe convection is
expected for the next several hours with damaging winds and large
hail the main threat. While a tornado threat does exist, inflow
would need to back more substantially to make this more of a
concern. None the less, a brief spinup remains a possibility given
the impressive Cape values. Heavy rain become the primary threat
with time and this aspect will be covered in the hydro section
below. While the frontal convection continues to eventually press
south and east tonight, there will be some decrease in coverage
and intensity by late evening. However, the main shortwave will
arrive toward daybreak with increased dynamic forcing in the mid
levels across the northern half of the state. This should
reinvigorate convection overnight with another round of heavy
rainfall. Location of this heavy rain will be difficult to
pinpoint as CAMs vary considerably in placement given the previous
convection from the evening. However, the strong forcing be
sufficient to produce convection behind the surface boundary where
flow above the surface will still be supplying plenty of moisture.
Therefore, have continued high pops through the night.

System will pass across the state on Sunday with any remaining
convection confined to the far eastern portions of the state by
late morning. Otherwise, cooler and drier air will make conditions
much more comfortable than the past couple of days. Beyond this
timeframe, the east coast ridge will retrograde across the United
States during the upcoming week. Iowa will be on the extreme south
of the westerlies with temperatures generally above normal and
some threat for convection, although the bulk of it should remain
just north of the state.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Thunderstorms should be widespread in coverage through the night
across Iowa except the southeast corner. Will keep thunder in TAFs
through the night ranging from VCTS to actual T in TAF. Storms
should end Sunday morning followed by a MVFR ceiling for a few
hours then VFR after 18z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Major concern for the night will be the threat of heavy rainfall.
Plenty of moisture is available with PWATS approaching 2" in many
locations near the boundary. The will be ample moisture transport
and inflow as upper system works across the Plains and toward the
state by Sunday morning. Several rounds of convection can be
expected in portions of northern into central and western Iowa
through 12Z on Sunday. Deep warm cloud layers will also promote
efficiency along with good but not overwhelming updrafts. The WPC
moderate risk outlook is good although some concern that recent
models QPF has sifted slightly SE. Overall rainfall of 1 to 3
inches seems reasonable along with isolated locations possibly up
to 5-6 inches. The recent rainfall, moist soils and river/streams
running at or near capacity all indicate a strong potential for
flash flooding along with renewed and/or aggravated river
flooding. Have continued the flash flood watch and even expanded
to the southeast some to incorporate the new model guidance.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>026-033>037-044>048-057>060-070>073-081-082.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ027-028-037>039-
048>050-059>062-072>075-083>086-094>097.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Johnson
HYDROLOGY...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
409 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-044>048-057>060-070>073-081-
082-012115-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-
Hardin-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-
Polk-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Adams-Union-
409 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with heavy rains
and flash flooding possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect. There
is also an Enhanced Risk of severe weather this evening into
tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Minor to moderate river flooding will also continue along parts of
the Des Moines River Basin. Expected heavy rains may produce
additional flooding or exacerbate ongoing flooding. Please refer
to the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines
for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Intermittent chances for thunderstorms linger Sunday morning and
continue off and on infrequently through the work week. The
severe weather potential is low at this time.

Flood Warnings are expected to continue for portions of the Des
Moines River Basin into next week. Please refer to the National
Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed for severe weather and flash flooding
later this afternoon and tonight.

IAZ027-028-038-039-049-050-061-062-074-075-083>086-092>097-012115-
Butler-Bremer-Grundy-Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-
Marion-Mahaska-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-
Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
409 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely tonight. Some may be severe with locally
heavy rains. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Intermittent chances for thunderstorms linger Sunday and continue
off and on infrequently through the work week. The severe weather
potential is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
827 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE ALLEMAN           41.78N 93.59W
06/30/2018                   POLK               IA   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE OF FLOODING ALONG THE
            FOURMILE.

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
829 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MAXWELL                 41.90N 93.40W
06/30/2018  E5.00 INCH       STORY              IA   PUBLIC

            SINCE 5:45 PM TODAY. STANDING WATER IN THE
            AREA.

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
832 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WATERLOO                42.49N 92.35W
06/30/2018                   BLACK HAWK         IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KWWL REPORTS FLASH FLOODING ALONG 4TH STREET
            IN DOWNTOWN WATERLOO.

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
836 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE DALLAS CENTER     41.69N 93.97W
06/30/2018                   DALLAS             IA   PUBLIC

            WATER STANDING AND PARTIALLY BLOCKING
            ROADWAYS ON THE WEST SIDE OF DALLAS CENTER.

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
842 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     ZEARING                 42.16N 93.30W
06/30/2018  E60 MPH          STORY              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM RELAYS TRAINED SPOTTER REPORT OF 60 TO 70
            MPH WINDS BETWEEN 630 AND 800 PM.

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
843 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MENLO                   41.52N 94.40W
06/30/2018                   GUTHRIE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT LEAST 2
            INCHES DIAMETER, A FEW 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

AK