Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Des Moines, IA

783 
WWUS53 KDMX 012151
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
451 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

IAC015-049-169-012215-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-180501T2215Z/
Story IA-Boone IA-Dallas IA-
451 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN STORY...BOONE AND NORTH CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTIES...

At 450 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Woodward, or 9
miles northeast of Perry, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported golfball sized hail in 
         Woodward at 448 pm. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Ames, Boone, Perry, Story City, Madrid, Ogden, Roland, Gilbert,
Woodward, Boone Speedway, Minburn, Bouton, Luther, Fraser, Perry
Municipal Airport, Boone Municipal Airport and Ledges State Park.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 121 and 126.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 9400 4181 9420 4221 9393 4220 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 220DEG 30KT 4191 9395 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Donavon

970 
WWUS53 KDMX 012207
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
507 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

IAC015-049-169-012215-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-180501T2215Z/
Story IA-Boone IA-Dallas IA-
507 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL STORY...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE AND NORTH CENTRAL DALLAS
COUNTIES...

At 505 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Madrid, or 8
miles southeast of Boone, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Ames, Boone, Madrid, Woodward, Boone Speedway, Bouton, Luther, Boone
Municipal Airport and Ledges State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 9394 4187 9406 4213 9390 4209 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 237DEG 40KT 4194 9381 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Donavon

035 
WWUS53 KDMX 012214
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
514 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

IAC015-049-169-012223-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-180501T2215Z/
Story IA-Boone IA-Dallas IA-
514 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL STORY...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE AND NORTH CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
515 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
portions of southeast Boone and Story counties until 6 pm.

LAT...LON 4178 9394 4187 9406 4213 9390 4209 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 219DEG 33KT 4200 9375 

$$

Donavon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
329 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

The primary concern will obviously be convective trends through
tomorrow. Water vapor imagery shows a jet segment through the
Rockies with weak lift on the nose of the jet spreading through the
MO Valley. The stronger 0-500m moisture convergence appears to be
across southeast NE at the moment, which is also coincident with
uncapped 2500 j/kg MLCAPEs. The latest satellite imagery and radar
mosaic suggest initiation is already starting just north of Omaha,
giving at least some credence to HRRR/ESRL HRRR solutions which
would bring an MCS into central IA 00-03z or earlier. Another
question will be whether later development over KS will reach Iowa
and to what degree. The latest convection allowing model /CAM/
consensus seems to suggest later initiation south and west with the
strength of the low level jet and Corfidi vector response pulling
convection later tonight more into MO than IA. At the moment, hail
and wind would seem to be our primary threats based on DCAPE and
Hail Cape with low level kinematic parameters on the low end. More
of a QLCS tornado concern may develop later this evening with the
low level jet as 0-1km and 0-3km shear increases. Although some
storms may produce locally heavy rain and amounts greater than an
inch, antecedent soil conditions as well as the magnitude of the
mean wind and Corfidi vectors should keep storms fairly progressive
and heavy rain and flash flood threat reduced somewhat. Temperatures
in the warm sector south of the front will remain rather mild with
the potential for lows approaching or exceeding record high mins.

Any convection should reflect typical convective diurnal minimums
into tomorrow with the attention on where the boundary will re-
develop into peak heating. Some CAMs push a mesoscale boundary well
into MO early tomorrow, but regardless there is generate agreement
lift the warm front back into the heart of Iowa during peak heating
as short waves and lift eject out of what is currently the Baja
trough. Thus have fairly high confidence in another round of
convection later tomorrow afternoon driven by increased synoptic
forcing and would not be surprised to see the SPC outlook probs
lifted farther north with time.  Forcing, MLCAPEs and deep shear
should all be higher than are presently in place.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

Bottom Line up Front...
Severe weather and heavy rainfall potential continue to remain
hazardous threats for Wednesday night through Thursday night this
week.

Synoptics...
Not much change in overall synoptic-scale pattern for Wednesday
through Thursday, followed by the new pattern beginning to set up
into this weekend...a pattern which might be in place for at least
the first half of May. Longwave trough to be over the Four
Corners region by 00z Thu, propagating to NW Iowa by 00z Fri and
the Great Lakes Region shortly thereafter. The thermal ridge
builds over the intermountain west this weekend, extending well
into Canada and towards the Arctic Circle by Sunday.

Wednesday Night...
We are starting to see model agreement on multiple impulses
ejecting off this low, with the first one propagate northeastward
through Iowa between 00z Thu and 06z Thu. The structure of this
impulse should be reflected down to the surface, as it is well
phased with a 50kt LLJ that will serve to transport a surge of
moisture into central to southern Iowa. Meanwhile, the boundary
described in the short-term AFD above should very slowly drift
south, more or less remaining in place Wednesday night.
Kinematic/isentropic ascent processes well-phased and in play,
0-6km mixing ratios are a widespread 6 g/kg along and south of the
boundary, with a pocked of 8.0 g/kg over SW IA... SFC omega even
makes it above 1 microbar, paired with warm-cloud depths well
over 3500m. Models show a pocket of PWATs nearing 1.75 inches
racing across Iowa from the 00z to 06z Thu time-frame, and given
all of the above, rainfall efficiency should be very high. At
this time, it appears reasonable for 1.5 to 2 inches of rain to
fall somewhere over southern/SW IA during a 6 hour time period
from 00z Thu to 06z Thu. Convective instability should be waning
with the loss of daytime heating, so processes related to this
impulse shouldn't directly lead to an increase of severity to
ongoing storms, per se.

Thursday Afternoon Through Friday Morning...
The location of the boundary will be the key determiner of where
svr wx will be. Medium-range models still having some issues with
its location... issues which will generally not be resolved until
Wednesday's convection plays out. The GFS is furthest north with
the boundary location, the ECMWF furthest south, and other models
somewhere in between. As longwave trough/closed low mentioned
above, an accompanying sfc reflection low will be pushing eastward
through Iowa. For the past two days, indicators have been there
may be one last moisture surge in the warm sector and a similar,
though slightly weaker setup than the Wednesday night system. A
pocket of PWATs of 1.5 inches may be advected into southern
Iowa... though southern to southeastern Iowa is more favored.

Overall, severe weather still possible, with large hail the main
threat and a tornado or two/damaging winds secondary threats.
Thursday's severe weather potential certainly less than Wednesday's,
and may be focused more in the afternoon versus the evening. Heavy
rain/flooding potential may be most important hazard to key on by
Thursday afternoon... depending on how much rain has already fallen
over a given location. Worth mentioning that southern Iowa can
handle more rain relative to the rest of the state given their
ongoing drought conditions, but at some point local streams and
flood-prone areas may begin to experience adverse impacts.

Friday and beyond...
Dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence will rapidly clear
skies Friday across Iowa. As mentioned above, the thermal ridge
quickly builds over the intermountain west, so there will
effectively be nil CAA into this weekend. So, have been nudging
temps upward closer to persistence through early next week. Within
the western/northwestern flow, there will likely be impulses
ejecting through the upper Midwest, bringing brief warm-ups and
slight precip chances. In all, Friday and beyond looks to be
fairly dry and warm. This pattern may hold through the middle of
the month and into the end of May... effectively making May a dry
month with June-like temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon/
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

The primary concerns through the period will be convective trends
and possible LLWS into the night south and east. Shower and storm
chances should increase west to east early this evening. Have
tried to highlight the most likely period with VCTS wording
bordered by VCSH either side. Confidence in location and timing is
not there for stronger wording and also avoids prolonged thunder
or precip mention. A strengthening low level jet will also
increase south and east of an approaching frontal boundary
inducing LLWS near KDSM and KOTM. MVFR stratus may also develop
behind the precip later tonight, with a return to VFR into
Wednesday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Kotenberg
AVIATION...Small

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
341 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-022045-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
341 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through this
evening. A few storms may become severe with the main threats
being large hail and damaging winds with an isolated tornado
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is the potential for isolated severe storms along with
locally heavy rain, mainly during the late afternoon into evening
hours each day Wednesday and Thursday. The main threat of any
strong to severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

River flooding is expected to continue along the upper reaches of
the Des Moines River Basin. Flood Warnings remain in effect for
these areas. Please refer to the National Weather Service website
at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely later today into this evening.

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-022045-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
341 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop through this evening with
some severe storms likely. The severe threat includes large hail
and damaging winds with even a few isolated tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday afternoon and
evening with another threat of a few severe storms. Once again,
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to form Thursday
afternoon into the evening. Additional severe storms will be
possible during this time.

Localized heavy rain will be possible each day which may lead to
stream and bank rises with flooding possible in flood-prone
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely later today into this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1148 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

IAZ060-061-011715-
Jasper IA-Polk IA-
1148 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

...Nickel Sized Hail and Gusty Winds...

At 1147 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasant Hill, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Des Moines, Newton, Altoona, Pleasant Hill, Carlisle, Bondurant,
Mitchellville, Colfax, Prairie City, Prairie Meadows, Iowa State
Fairgrounds, Adventureland Amusement Park, Iowa Speedway, Runnells,
Mingo, Lambs Grove, Valeria, Prairie City Krohn Airport and Newton
Municipal Airport.

LAT...LON 4149 9338 4150 9338 4149 9340 4150 9340
      4149 9341 4149 9342 4151 9342 4150 9344
      4151 9347 4160 9358 4186 9329 4186 9327
      4168 9301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 226DEG 38KT 4160 9342

Curtis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
433 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             3 S JAMAICA             41.81N 94.31W
05/01/2018  M0.75 INCH       GUTHRIE            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL LASTED ABOUT 15 TO 30 SECONDS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
434 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             2 ENE YALE              41.79N 94.32W
05/01/2018  M0.50 INCH       GUTHRIE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&