Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Des Moines, IA

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Sac County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Wright County, IA

474 
WWUS83 KDMX 280001
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
701 PM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Diminishing...

.Although there are still some gusts from 30 to 40 mph, the wins
are forecast to subside through the rest of the evening. Plus,
temperatures look to cool off and allow the relative humidity to
increase. 

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-280115-
/O.EXP.KDMX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180428T0000Z/
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
701 PM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS....

Winds look to begin to diminish across central to south central
Iowa as the sun sets. There remains a concern for uncontrolled
fires, but the relative humidity is expected to slowly increase
with the temperatures cooling off the rest of the evening. 

$$

KLP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Considered upgrade to Red Flag Warning (25mph+ sustained and RH
<=25 percent), but conditions seem marginal with widespread
conditions not being met or expected. Have been monitoring
dewpoints upstream in the NW winds and there seems to be little
different in mixing either side of the wind shift. There is still
very high fire danger weather conditions however.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

A cool front will cross the area from north to south today. The
frontal passage will be dry with no precipitation forecast, and
ahead of the boundary temperatures will still warm into the lower
70s across much of the area south of Highway 20. Forecast soundings
show a fairly deep mixed layer developing during the day and winds
at the top of the layer peaking in the 30-35 KT range around midday.
As the front moves through and is followed by cold air advection, it
is expected northwest winds will increase substantially, and for a
couple hours we may see gusts to 30+ KT realized especially in our
northern areas where the boundary will be through during the window
of highest winds aloft. While these speeds are below advisory
criteria, they will contribute to a very high fire danger today, as
relative humidity will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range by the
afternoon and surface fuels are largely cured and dry. Will
highlight this very high fire danger today in outgoing messaging
products.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Saturday will be the coolest day of the period as cold advection
drops south Friday night and lingers into Saturday as a cool
Canadian high pressure system arrives. High temperatures will be
mainly in the 50s. Despite good mixing, the wind is expected to
diminish through the day as the mixed layer winds decrease. Warm
advection will arrive Saturday night and Sunday as the area of
high pressure moves to the southeast and good return flow
develops. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid to upper
60s with a few low 70s possible. A few thunderstorms are possible
Sunday night into early Monday as the low level jet increases and
brings another wave of theta-e advection across the state. An
elevated mixed layer is expected to become established by Monday
afternoon and will end any convective potential. Gusty south winds
are possible on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have 40 kts or
greater in the mixed layer at times by Monday afternoon. Not all
of this wind will reach the surface considering it is a warm
advection regime but certainly windy conditions may occur. High
temperatures should be well into the 70s and potentially a few low
80s.

Additional thunderstorms are possible over far northwest Iowa late
Monday night then across then shift east across all of central
Iowa on Tuesday as a boundary moves east into the state. There
will be the potential for a few severe storms along the boundary
as the instability increases through the day. The boundary will
linger over Iowa into Wednesday before departing Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Additional severe storms could occur during
this period along with locally heavy rainfall with Gulf moisture
lifting north into the boundary. Still way too early to get too
precise but certainly will be an active period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

VFR conditions are in place across central IA at 18z and
confidence is high they should remain in place into Saturday
morning. Patchy mid level cloudiness central and east should exit
into the evening leaving behind mostly clear skies. Gusty NW winds
will persist through sunset before diminishing quickly this
evening and gradually becoming N to NE into Saturday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...Small
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Small

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
425 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-280930-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
425 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is a very high fire danger today...especially this afternoon
as the wind increases and relative humidities lower.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Thursday. A few severe
storms will be possible with the best potential Tuesday and
Wednesday.

River flooding due to snow melt is expected to continue or
develop along the upper reaches of the Des Moines River Basin, as
well as the Cedar River near Cedar Falls. Flood Warnings remain in
effect for these areas. Please refer to the National Weather
Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through this weekend.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1111 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-272300-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
Including the cities of Estherville, Algona, Forest City,
Lake Mills, Northwood, Manly, Emmetsburg, Garner, Britt, Kanawha,
Mason City, Clear Lake, Pocahontas, Laurens, Rolfe, Fonda,
Gilmore City, Humboldt, Eagle Grove, Clarion, Belmond, Hampton,
Parkersburg, Clarksville, Shell Rock, Greene, Aplington, Allison,
Dumont, Waverly, Sac City, Lake View, Odebolt, Wall Lake,
Schaller, Early, Rockwell City, Manson, Lake City, Pomeroy,
Fort Dodge, Webster City, Iowa Falls, Eldora, Ackley,
Grundy Center, Reinbeck, Conrad, Dike, Wellsburg, Waterloo,
Cedar Falls, Denison, Carroll, Jefferson, Boone, Ames,
Marshalltown, Tama, Toledo, Traer, Dysart, Gladbrook, Audubon,
Exira, Guthrie Center, Panora, Bayard, Casey, Perry, Waukee,
Adel, Des Moines, Newton, Grinnell, Atlantic, Greenfield, Stuart,
Adair, Fontanelle, Winterset, Earlham, Indianola, Norwalk,
Carlisle, Pella, Knoxville, Oskaloosa, Corning, Creston, Osceola,
Chariton, Albia, Ottumwa, Bedford, Lenox, New Market, Mount Ayr,
Lamoni, Leon, Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, Humeston, Centerville,
and Bloomfield
1111 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...Very High Fire Danger Today...

Gusty wind and dry conditions will lead to a very high fire
danger today, particularly during the afternoon hours. West winds
will turn toward northwest and gradually increase as a cool front
drops across Iowa. Winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts
to near 35 mph at times before diminishing toward sunset. In
addition, relative humidity will be very low this afternoon, in
the 25 to 35 percent range, and most surface grasses are dry.
This will allow any fires that ignite to spread rapidly, and
burning is discouraged.

Small