Winter Storm Warning 13, NWS Duluth, MN

619 
WWUS43 KDLH 041526
WSWDLH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
926 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SNOW CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...

.Snow was occurring across much of northern Wisconsin this morning
and it will continue north and west through the late morning and
afternoon. The heaviest snowfall amounts are expected over the 
eastern tip of the Arrowhead region, with lesser amounts expected 
over the rest of the Arrowhead region. Much of northwest Wisconsin
will receive between 2 to 5 inches with a few locations near 6
inches. Strong easterly winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible
near Lake Superior, which could lead to blowing snow over the 
Arrowhead region.

MNZ021-042300-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0013.181104T2000Z-181105T1200Z/
Southern Cook/North Shore-
Including the city of Grand Marais
926 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches is possible, with the heaviest amounts possible in the 
  highest elevations above 1600 feet. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Southern Cook/North Shore County.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult, 
  especially this afternoon and evening. Some limited visibility 
  will be possible due to gusty easterly winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

WIZ006>009-042300-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T0000Z/
Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
Including the cities of Grantsburg, Spooner, Hayward, 
and Phillips
926 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

WIZ001>004-042300-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T0000Z/
Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-
Including the cities of Superior, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, 
and Hurley
926 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches expected with locally higher amounts to 6 inches 
  possible.

* WHERE...Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

MNZ012-020-042300-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.181104T2000Z-181105T1200Z/
Northern Cook/Northern Lake-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, and Silver Bay
926 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches expected, with heavier amounts up to 8 inches possible 
  east of Eagle Mountain.

* WHERE...Northern Cook/Northern Lake County.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/Duluth

713 
WWUS43 KDLH 042130
WSWDLH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
330 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SNOW CONTINUES BUT WILL DECREASE SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT...

WIZ006-042230-
/O.CAN.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T0000Z/
Burnett-
Including the city of Grantsburg
330 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

A rain and snow mix is expected late this afternoon and little
addition snowfall is expected.

$$

MNZ021-050930-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181105T1200Z/
Southern Cook/North Shore-
Including the city of Grand Marais
330 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations late this
  afternoon into tonight will range from 3 to 6 inches. Much 
  lighter amounts will occur close to Lake Superior. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph will also occur into the evening.

* WHERE...Southern Cook/North Shore County.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

WIZ007>009-050000-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T0000Z/
Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
Including the cities of Spooner, Hayward, and Phillips
330 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations late this
  afternoon and early evening will be up to an inch.

* WHERE...Sawyer, Price and Washburn Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

WIZ001>004-050000-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T0000Z/
Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-
Including the cities of Superior, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, 
and Hurley
330 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations late this
  afternoon and early evening will be up to two inches.

* WHERE...Iron, Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

MNZ012-020-050930-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T1200Z/
Northern Cook/Northern Lake-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, and Silver Bay
330 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations late this afternoon
  and tonight will range from 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Northern Cook/Northern Lake and Southern Lake/North 
  Shore Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/Duluth

728 
WWUS43 KDLH 042354
WSWDLH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
554 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...SNOW CONTINUES BUT WILL DECREASE SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT as rain
becomes the dominant precipitation type...

WIZ007>009-050100-
/O.EXP.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T0000Z/
Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
Including the cities of Spooner, Hayward, and Phillips
554 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

Snow has largely changed over to rain ending the need for this
winter weather advisory.

$$

WIZ001>004-050100-
/O.EXP.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T0000Z/
Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-
Including the cities of Superior, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, 
and Hurley
554 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

Snow has largely changed over to rain ending the need for this 
winter weather advisory.

$$

MNZ021-051200-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181105T1200Z/
Southern Cook/North Shore-
Including the city of Grand Marais
554 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Cook/North Shore County.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

MNZ012-020-051200-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T1200Z/
Northern Cook/Northern Lake-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, and Silver Bay
554 PM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Northern Cook/Northern Lake and Southern Lake/North 
  Shore Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/Duluth

296 
WWUS43 KDLH 050848
WSWDLH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
248 AM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CANCELLED...

.Latest radar returns have decreased early this morning over the
Minnesota Arrowhead, along with some warmer temperatures moving 
into the region, trending precipitation type more to rain or 
drizzle. Thus, the winter weather headlines have been dropped. 
Some snowflakes may still mix in with the rain and drizzle, but no
additional accumulation is anticipated.

MNZ021-051000-
/O.CAN.KDLH.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-181105T1200Z/
Southern Cook/North Shore-
Including the city of Grand Marais
248 AM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

MNZ012-020-051000-
/O.CAN.KDLH.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181105T1200Z/
Northern Cook/Northern Lake-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, and Silver Bay
248 AM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/Duluth

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1145 PM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

Some significant changes were made to Sunday's forecast. We
increased snow amounts over northwest Wisconsin and over parts of
the Arrowhead.

The latest models remain in decent agreement lifting a surface low
north into southern Iowa by 12Z Sunday, through western Wisconsin to
western Lake Superior by 12Z Monday. A period of strong forcing will
accompany the low due to FGEN, upper level divergence with the jet,
and with a strong negatively tilted shortwave. The column will be
cold enough for snow initially with the boundary layer temperatures
being the main driver in precipitation type through much of Sunday
before warmer air aloft arrives south to north later in the
afternoon through the evening. We lowered surface temperatures
over northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota for much of
Sunday which will lead to more snowfall. Surface temperature
differences of 1 to 3 degrees will make a big difference in
precipitation type. We have increased confidence of snowfall
amounts from 2 to 5 inches over much of northern Wisconsin and we
issued a Winter Weather Advisory from Sunday morning through 6 pm
Sunday. Snow will taper off quickly west with little accumulation
from Aitkin to the Iron Range and points west. The North Shore
and Arrowhead will also see snow accumulation but the
precipitation will arrive later which will allow temperatures to
rise a bit further than southern areas. That said, once the
precipitation commences, surface temperatures will cool some. We
may need an advisory for portions of the North Shore as well but
will wait for now. We did issue a Winter Storm Watch for the tip
of the Arrowhead, mainly for eastern Cook County, which has the
potential for snowfall of 6 inches or more from Sunday afternoon
through late Sunday evening.

The precipitation will diminish in intensity from south to north late
Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours but linger longest over
far northeast Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

Fairly active through the extended with several opportunities for
precipitation and a cold air outbreak late in the week.

A trough will be lifting out of northern Minnesota Monday into
Ontario while another trough digs into the Central Plains. The
surface low associated with the first trough will lift into Ontario.
This will gradually bring precipitation to an end from southwest to
northeast. This break in precipitation will be short lived however
as low pressure develops across the Mid Mississippi River Valley.
This will gradually spread precipitation into the region from
southwest to northeast Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance continue the trend of bringing the low center
moving further east in comparison to previous runs. This will bring
the region less in the way of precipitation and snowfall
accumulation. 850 hPa flow will become northwesterly and advect cold
air into the region. This will begin the downward trend of the
temperatures for the rest of the week. Highs on Monday range from
the upper 30s to the low 40s. Highs on Tuesday range from the mid
30s to the low 40s.

The low and trough associated with the low moving through on Tuesday
will lift into Ontario Tuesday afternoon into the evening. A
shortwave trough will dig from the Northern Plains into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley by Tuesday evening. This combined with the
continued cold air advection will result in scattered snow showers
Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Locations in northwest Wisconsin
May see a rain/snow mix during the afternoon. Highs on Wednesday
will be in the 30s.

Yet another trough will dig into the region from Central Canada on
Thursday. This will bring scattered snow showers. There still is
some discrepancy on the exact timing, evolution and intensity of the
trough digging in. This has implications on the thermal structure
with the GFS/GEM being colder than the ECMWF and how widespread
shower activity will be. These details will need to be refined in
future updates. Lowered high temperatures in comparison to the
previous forecast as am anticipating colder air to advect into the
region. Highs on Thursday range from the mid 20s to the low 30s.
Confidence becomes quite low late in the extended as models continue
to diverge on the handling of the trough moving through which cuts
off. Either in Ontario (GFS/GEM) or over us (ECMWF). Either solution
will bring precipitation to the region, but the ECMWF would bring
much more in the way of snowfall accumulation with the low rotating
around the region. Expect the coldest readings of the extended on
Friday with 850 hPa temperatures between -15 to -20 degrees Celsius.
Highs will generally be in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

VFR for the first half of the TAF period, but a system will
approach from the south and will bring increasing chances for IFR
especially south as snow begins to filter in. Late in the TAF snow
is much more likely with potentially heavy rates at KHYR which
should bring IFR conditions. There is a bit of uncertainty for
KDLH for snow amounts namely because the temperatures will be
straddling the freezing mark. Less is expected at the western
terminals since the storm just brushes these areas with light
precipitation. Gusty winds Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  37  33  40 /  10  90  70  20
INL  23  42  32  40 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  33  42  32  43 /  30  60  20  10
HYR  29  35  34  42 /  30 100  80  20
ASX  28  37  36  43 /  10 100  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CST Sunday for
     WIZ007>009.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     WIZ002>004.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for MNZ012-021.

LS...Gale Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM CST Sunday for LSZ140>147.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday
     night for LSZ121-148.

&&

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Wolfe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
324 PM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-041130-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
324 PM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Snow will develop from south to north through northern Wisconsin
and eastern Minnesota on Sunday. The snow will mix with rain and
diminish south to north later Sunday afternoon into the overnight
hours. Snowfall from 2 to 4 inches will be possible over northern
Wisconsin with locally higher amounts. 1 to 2 inches is expected in
far eastern Minnesota. The North Shore could see higher amounts,
especially in the Arrowhead where a Winter Storm Watch has been
issued.

Accumulating snowfall is anticipated Tuesday through Thursday. It is
still to early to discern specific amounts as the forecast track
continues to shift east.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Snow spotters are requested to report their snowfall measurements
to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-041130-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
324 PM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Easterly winds will strengthen and become northeasterly on Sunday.
The combination of strong winds and resultant waves will create
conditions hazardous to small craft. Gale Warnings and Small Craft
Advisories have been issued for the nearshore waters of Western Lake
Superior. Please see the latest Nearshore Marine Forecast and Marine
Weather Messages for more details.

Strong northwest winds will strengthen on Tuesday into early
Wednesday morning. The combination of strong winds and resultant
waves may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft.

Melde/WL

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)