Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 AM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

A few showers were occurring from north central Minnesota through
the Range toward Siren. We updated the forecast to reflect these
isolated showers this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Warm and humid weather returns to the Northland today, as well as
the threat of thunderstorms. A mid-level ridge will shift from
the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest by late today, and a warm
front will lift into the region. Expect partly cloudy skies and
breezy southerly winds. Some models suggest there could be light
precipitation. Capping will likely prevent any significant
convection, but there may be some high based showers and weak
storms during the day. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s and
low 80s, but 60s and lower 70s from the Twin Ports and along the
North Shore because of a strong lake breeze.

The chances of thunderstorms increases tonight when potentially
multiple shortwaves lift into the region on the back-end of the
passing mid-level ridge. There is considerable model disagreement
on the timing and location of this shortwave-triggered convection,
so leaned on the smoother SREF for precipitation chances. There
could be up to a couple thousand J/kg of MUCAPE with these storms
tonight, but the lack of deep layer wind shear will keep the
threat of severe weather very low. However, these storms could be
capable of small hail, as well as heavy rain considering
precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches.

There will likely be lingering showers and storms Saturday
morning, and then renewed development Saturday afternoon. A
surface trough will move into northeast Minnesota by the late
afternoon, which will help trigger storms. Some of these storms
could be strong considering up to a few thousand J/kg of MUCAPE,
but once again, the lack of deep layer wind shear will limit the
threat of severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely Saturday evening over
much of the Northland ahead of a surface cool front and with
trough and shortwave over the region. PWAT values will be around
1.65 inches per the GFS and NAM. A southwesterly low level jet
around 45 knots will be over our eastern areas and will shift out
of the Northland overnight. The better instability (western areas)
is out of phase with the stronger shear (eastern areas) Saturday
evening. That said, conditions will still be favorable for at
least a low threat for severe storms Saturday night with large
hail, damaging wind, and heavy rainfall the main threats.

More showers and storms are possible Sunday with the surface cool
front moving into central to eastern Minnesota by late afternoon.
There will be a chance for more showers/storms, especially in the
afternoon and highest over far eastern Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin. There will again be a threat for some strong to severe
storms.

Weak high pressure and northwest flow aloft will develop Monday
into Tuesday bringing mainly dry conditions for most areas through
mid week. There may be a few showers/storms at times but coverage
should be low.

The GFS/ECMWF diverge on their solutions Thursday/Friday. Despite
the differences, chances for showers/storms will remain rather
low.

Highs through much of the extended period will be in the mid
seventies to lower eighties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Continued warm air/moisture advection has led to a few showers
from north central Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin this
morning and an area of low VFR and MVFR ceilings will move north
through the region today as well. The coverage of the showers this
morning should be isolated with additional chances in spots this
afternoon. An increasing low level jet tonight will aid in
producing a chance for showers/storms tonight and could lead to
some low level wind shear. Later updates may include a mention of
the showers/storms in some of the TAFs. Some additional MVFR
ceilings will be possible tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  62  78  64 /  20  30  50  70
INL  80  64  80  62 /  10  30  70  40
BRD  82  68  78  64 /  10  40  50  60
HYR  79  67  82  65 /  20  30  50  70
ASX  80  64  84  67 /  20  30  40  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for WIZ001.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ004-009.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ144-145.

&&

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1134 AM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-041130-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1134 AM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Strong northeast winds will increase the threat of rip currents
today through this evening for areas near the Twin Ports,
including the beaches of Duluth and Superior. A Beach Hazards
Statement has been issued for these areas.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of central and
east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. A
few storms may be strong to severe with large hail, torrential
rainfall, and brief gusty winds the main threats.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected tonight over much of
the Northland. A few of the storms may be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are likely Saturday and there is a chance of
thunderstorms on Sunday. A few severe storms are possible with
large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size, wind
damage, and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-041130-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
1134 AM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Increasing northeast winds will create hazardous conditions for
small craft over far western Lake Superior. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for this afternoon and evening. See the latest
Nearshore Marine Forecast and Marine Weather Message for more
details.

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight over
portions of the nearshore waters. Small hail, occasional cloud-
to-water lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy rain, which will
reduce visibility, are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible at various times throughout the long
term period. The best chance of thunderstorms will be from
Saturday through Sunday evening. There is only a small chance of
severe thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. The main threats would
be large hail and damaging wind.

Huyck/Grochocinski/Melde

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             1 WSW LEADER            46.51N 94.67W
08/03/2018  E0.25 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KLH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2018

WIZ008-031730-
Sawyer-
1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SAWYER COUNTY...

At 1212 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Exeland, or 16 miles
south of Chippewa Flowage, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 30 mph and half-inch hail can be expected with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Sawyer
County, including the following locations: Deer Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard-topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4580 9136 4576 9094 4564 9100 4564 9144
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 286DEG 29KT 4570 9130

Wolfe