Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Happy Fourth of July! Wish we could say it would be free of storms
to people could safely enjoy the weather, but thunderstorms could
threaten festivities today.

It will be a warm and humid day with southerly winds. Temperatures
are expected to climb well into the 80s, and dew point
temperatures into the lower 70s. A vertically stacked low in
southern Canada will increasingly become occluded and its cold
front will accelerate towards and through the Northland. This
front will put the Northland at risk of the development of
thunderstorms in this unstable and muggy environment during the
afternoon and evening as it moves through the region. However,
complicating the forecasting of the storms associated with the
cold front later today is how storms early this morning, currently
in the Dakotas, will affect the Northland and its environment for
storm potential later with the cold front. The models are not too
helpful with a range of scenarios, including this morning's linear
complex of storms in the Dakotas dissipating on the doorsteps of
the central MN later this morning, or even making it all the way
to the Arrowhead and Duluth area by early this afternoon. How the
models handle this morning's storms is one thing, and then there
is a range of scenarios for this afternoon and evening with the
cold front. Believe the 4 km NAM is decently portraying the
current storms in the Dakotas, so prefer its scenario taking these
storms and additional development with shortwaves lifting into
the region, all the way towards the Arrowhead by early this
afternoon. These storms should weaken a bit coming into the
Northland with the weakening of the nocturnal low-level jet, but
there could be strong wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain considering
up to a few thousand J/kg of MUCAPE, 25 to 35 knots of 0 to 6 km
wind shear, and 1.5 to 2 inches of precipitable water values.
These storms will work over the Northland's environment a bit,
and may delay the timing of additional development with the cold
front until late this afternoon and this evening when the
environment has enough time to recover instability. The later in
the day storms could develop in the environment with up to several
thousand J/kg of MUCAPE, 20 to 30 knots of of deep layer wind
shear, and nearly 2 inches of precipitable water. Strong to severe
weather is possible, but the wind shear will be a limiting factor
to what otherwise could be a more threatening scenario given the
plentiful instability and very moist atmosphere. Anticipate
damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain being the main threats.

A Flood Watch is in effect through this evening for much of
central into northeast MN considering recent rainfall has led to
wet soils, which may not be able to handle more rainfall well. The
storms today should be moving relatively quickly over any given
area, which limits the overall flooding threat. However, given
we cannot rule out flooding from additional storms today, will
keep the Watch going in order to covey there is still potential
for ponding and minor flooding.

High pressure will be building into the Northland Thursday. Expect
a warm, but sunny and drier day with northwest winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland during
the first part of the long term period, with no precipitation
expected during the period from Thursday night through Saturday.
Heights will begin to build across the region during this period,
as return flow establishes itself again on Saturday. The models
are actually in good agreement concerning the evolution of return
flow and the development of a strong low level jet by Saturday
night and Sunday. An upper level shortwave and a developing
frontal boundary will move through during that time as well,
resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
region. High pressure should temporarily bring a break in the
precipitation by Monday afternoon and evening, but there will be
various chances of precipitation at times from Sunday into Tuesday
next week. Chances of precipitation do not look particularly high
at this time, though. One thing is for sure, the warm mid summer
weather will continue through the period, with high temperatures
generally in the 80s. Lows will generally be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

A cold front will move eastward across the region today and
tonight, generating showers and thunderstorms for the TAF sites.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe, with strong winds
and large hail. While conditions will be largely VFR, there will
be periods of time where there are IFR/MVFR conditions due to
showers and thunderstorms. As the cold front moves east tonight,
we should see a gradual decrease in precipitation from west to
east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  61  78  54 /  60  50   0   0
INL  84  57  73  52 /  70  30   0   0
BRD  86  62  78  56 /  50  40   0   0
HYR  87  65  81  53 /  50  50  10   0
ASX  87  62  79  52 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Flood Watch through this evening for MNZ010-011-018-019-025-026-
     033>035.

LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
355 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-050900-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
355 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today and this evening,
especially later in the day. Damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, and
lightning will be the main threats. There could be isolated
flooding in areas of central into northeast Minnesota, where a
Flood Watch is in effect through early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible at various times from Saturday night
through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotters may be needed today and this evening to report
hail, wind damage, and rainfall with potentially strong to severe
storms.

LSZ121-140>148-050900-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
355 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Some storms could be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible at various times from Saturday night
through Tuesday night.

DAP/Grochocinski

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

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