Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Duluth, MN

889 
WWUS53 KDLH 240639
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
139 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

MNC001-035-240700-
/O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180524T0700Z/
Aitkin MN-Crow Wing MN-
139 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL AITKIN AND NORTHEASTERN CROW WING COUNTIES...

At 139 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Cuyuna, or 19
miles northeast of Brainerd, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Crosslake, Emily, Cuyuna, Mission, Wolford, and Pine Knoll. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4651 9394 4659 9409 4677 9401 4660 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 215DEG 10KT 4659 9398 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Melde

152 
WWUS53 KDLH 240653
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
153 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

MNC001-035-240702-
/O.EXP.KDLH.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180524T0700Z/
Aitkin MN-Crow Wing MN-
153 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL AITKIN AND
NORTHEASTERN CROW WING COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small 
hail and gusty winds to 45 mph are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4651 9394 4659 9409 4677 9401 4660 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 220DEG 10KT 4661 9395 

$$

Melde

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 719 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Showers were percolating just south of the Brainerd Lakes region
at 7pm. A few thunderstorms were located southwest of these
showers toward Alexandria. This activity was occurring on the
leading edge of a good push of warm air advection, and a coupled
jet structure between 850-250mb. Look for the showers and storms
to continue to develop and spread northeastward through the
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Chances for showers and thunderstorms should rapidly increase
tonight from south to north across the Northland, as a 30-35 knot
low level jet impinges on a fairly strong WNW-ESE gradient of low
level moisture and instability currently located across southern
MN. Deep layer shear is pretty weak tonight along this northward-
retreating warm frontal zone, but the low level forcing should be
moderately strong, and aided by some 925-850 mesoscale
frontogenesis forcing for ascent. Thus, it's not entirely out of
the question that a few storms later tonight could become rather
strong with some small hail and gusty winds.

Some storms are likely to linger into the day Thursday, especially
across northern/northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin where
the residual low level jet will still be focused through midday
along the warm frontal zone. The warm sector should reload during
the afternoon, with initiation of additional storms along a mass
convergence axis that is forecast to set up in the eastern
Dakotas. Deep layer shear once again will not be particularly
strong, but will likely be sufficient for a few strong/severe
storms Thursday evening to our west, which should then organize
into a cluster of storms that will move eastward across central
and northern Minnesota Thursday night and Friday morning.
Additional storms could also develop along the Canadian border
region Thursday evening if the warm frontal zone does not move as
far northward into Ontario as currently forecasted by the model
mass fields. The best chance for strong or severe storms across
the Duluth CWA is expected to be Thursday night when strong wind
gusts and large hail could accompany the strongest storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
early part of the Memorial Day weekend as a warm and rather humid
airmass remains in place across most of the region, and a series
of weak disturbances move across the region. Given available
guidance, it appears that chances for precip will diminish from
west to east Saturday night and Sunday as weak cold front moves
thought the area followed by high pressure.

Warmer and more humid conditions may then return to the region by
the middle part of next week, and this could be accompanied by
more showers and thunderstorms as a large scale trof moves toward
the region from the Rocky Mountain region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

High pressure will be nearby through the forecast with VFR. However,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through
12Z in the vicinity of the terminals and have a VCSH mention. LLWS
will affect BRD from 09-13Z as a low level jet clips the
terminal. Gusty surface winds will develop by mid to late morning
as the showers and storms end.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  81  61  85 /  60  20  50  30
INL  58  86  61  83 /  50  40  40  40
BRD  61  87  62  87 /  50  30  50  10
HYR  60  87  64  86 /  50  20  50  30
ASX  51  86  62  84 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...JTS
AVIATION...GSF/JTS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1036 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-241030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1036 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

SCattered thunderstorms are possible from the Siren area, west to
northwest to the Aitkin, Brainerd Lakes, and Walker areas. A
chance for thunderstorms will occur across the rest of the
Northland late tonight. No severe weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few thunderstorms will remain possible Thursday and they could
be strong during the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will be likely across much of the Northland
Thursday night through Friday night. Some of these storms could
be strong to severe, possibly producing damaging winds and large
hail. The best chances of showers and storms during this time
frame will be Thursday night and Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-241030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
1036 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Lake
Superior tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Chances of thunderstorms will be possible over western Lake
Superior Thursday through Friday night. Some thunderstorms could
be strong to severe, with gusty winds, large hail, and lightning
as the main threats. The best chances of thunderstorms will be
during the Thursday night and Friday morning time frame.

GSF

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1217 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

MNZ034-036-240545-
Crow Wing-South Aitkin-
1217 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AITKIN
AND SOUTHEASTERN CROW WING COUNTIES...

At 1216 AM CDT, an area of strong thunderstorms was near Ironton, or
8 miles northeast of Brainerd, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half-inch hail, heavy downpours, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Brainerd, Crosby, Aitkin, Ironton, Deerwood, Cuyuna, Upper South Long
Lake, Merrifield, South Long Lake, Cedar Lake, Bay Lake, Wolford,
Riverton, Trommald, Woodrow, Ripple Lake, Cuyuna Country State Park,
Farm Island Lake, Legionville, and Pine Knoll.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4629 9406 4644 9421 4667 9386 4646 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 233DEG 20KT 4642 9405

Melde

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1253 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

MNZ034-240630-
Crow Wing-
1253 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTY...

At 1253 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Ironton, or 10 miles
northeast of Brainerd, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, nickel-size hail, heavy downpours, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crosby, Crosslake, Ironton, Deerwood, Cuyuna, Merrifield, Mission,
Wolford, Riverton, Trommald, Woodrow, Cuyuna Country State Park,
Upper Mission Lake, Edward Lake, and Lower Mission Lake.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4668 9410 4655 9381 4653 9381 4638 9408
      4647 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 222DEG 11KT 4648 9408

Melde