Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Duluth, MN

181 
WWUS83 KDLH 041749
RFWDLH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1249 PM CDT Fri May 4 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-050000-
/O.CON.KDLH.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180505T0000Z/
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-
1249 PM CDT Fri May 4 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...

* Affected Area...In Minnesota, Koochiching, North St. Louis, 
  Northern Cook/Northern Lake, North Itasca, Central St. Louis, 
  Southern Lake/North Shore, Southern Cook/North Shore, North 
  Cass, South Itasca, South Cass, Crow Wing, Northern Aitkin, 
  South Aitkin, Carlton/South St. Louis and Pine.

* Winds...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...In the upper 60s to low 70s.

* Impacts...Any fires which develop may spread quickly through 
  dry vegetation and quickly grow out of control.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

897 
WWUS83 KDLH 042359
RFWDLH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
659 PM CDT Fri May 4 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-050100-
/O.EXP.KDLH.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180505T0000Z/
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-
659 PM CDT Fri May 4 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 010, 011, 012, 018, 019, 020, 021, 025, 026, 033, 
034, 035, 036, 037 AND 038...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
352 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

Today the main concern is for fire weather today, followed by
precipitation chances for Saturday. The upper level shortwave and
surface low over southwest Wisconsin as of 3AM has produced a
large area of rain with a little embedded thunder extending from
northern Iowa northeast through Wisconsin into Upper Michigan.
This has been affecting Price county this morning with some very
light rain, but so far less than a tenth of an inch has been
reported at Phillips. This area of rain should move out of the
forecast area by 12z, and have put in a dry forecast for the rest
of the day. The main concern for today though is how dry and
breezy it will get this afternoon on the back side of this system.
We have been dry lately, and with little/no evapotranspiration to
speak of yet to help boost low level moisture, we have to look at
upstream conditions to help balance out the model's tendency to
overdo low level moisture this time of year. With the deep mixing
and the dry airmass moving in, do not expect we will have any
trouble getting RH values down into the 15 to 25 percent range
over a large portion of the forecast area, and perhaps even drier
in areas that have been chronically dry lately. The deep mixing is
likely to also bring down gusty winds, and while things are
somewhat marginal in the models, this kind of airmass the models
are likely to underperform on gust speeds and have bumped them up
into the high end of guidance, putting gusts in the 20-25mph
range. This increases our fire weather threat, and will be
coordinating any changes to headlines in the next few hours.
Saturday a weak upper level shortwave and weak cold front slide
through the region, bringing some chances for showers and even
thunderstorms, which increase as the wave gets farther south where
there is more moisture available. Enough instability develops
there for some isolated thunder as well. Highs both today and
Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s for most locations, though
the tip of the Arrowhead is looking a bit cooler Saturday with
cloud cover to keep them in the 60s and even high 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across our
southern zones Saturday evening as a cool front moves through the
Northland. High pressure builds into the area in the wake of the
front with dry and quiet conditions into early next week.
Afternoon humidity values will be in the 25 to 35 percent range
Sunday and Monday, continuing the recent stretch of very dry
afternoons. Winds will be a bit stronger on Monday and may
approach critical fire weather conditions. Have continued with a
blended approach to the wind forecast and later iterations may
raise wind speeds if confidence increases.

An upper level trough will move out of the Dakotas and into the
Upper Midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible again as early as Tuesday morning.
Better support for precipitation arrives Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday as a weak area of surface low pressure takes
shape in the Dakotas and slides east into central and southern
Minnesota. Confidence in precipitation and coverage is low to
medium at this time. Convective evolution upstream Monday night
and Tuesday will likely play a role in where the strongest
vorticity and height falls will occur. Have kept POPs in the
“chance” range for now. The slow moving system may loiter through
Wednesday night before sliding east.

Temperatures will be near normal on Sunday and will trend much
warmer on Monday with highs reach the 70s, except along the north
shore where a lake breeze will limit temps to the 60s. With cloud
cover and rain chances Tuesday through Thursday, temperatures
will trend cooler each day. Highs start out in the upper 50s
along the north shore with 60s inland on Tuesday. By Thursday low
50s to low 60s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as high
pressure begins to build into the region. Mid and high level
clouds from a system well to the south will continue to affect
KDLH and KHYR overnight before clearing out after sunrise Friday
morning as the system moves away. Gusty northwest surface winds
are expected to develop Friday morning and persist through the
afternoon before diminishing during the early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  43  67  38 /   0  10  20  10
INL  69  39  66  35 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  73  45  73  41 /   0  10  20  10
HYR  75  44  74  39 /   0  10  30  30
ASX  73  42  68  36 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...BJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
407 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-051130-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
407 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Low relative humidities, dry vegetation, and gusty northwest
winds will lead to a period of critical fire weather conditions
this afternoon over much of northeast Minnesota, with near
critical conditions for northwest Wisconsin. Afternoon humidity
values between 15 to 25 percent are forecast with winds gusting to
25 mph. With dormant vegetation across the Northland, fires will
be able to start and spread easily. Red Flag Warnings are in
effect for areas with the greatest risk of extreme fire behavior.
Please refer to that product for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon, mainly
over northwest Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-051130-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
407 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

LE/Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)