Beach Hazards Statement 3, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Please see the 06Z Aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Increased pops over the western third of the forecast area as
showers and isolated thunderstorms begin to push into the region.
This is in response to strong vorticity maxima slowly moving
through northwest Minnesota. Other minor adjustments made to pops
overnight as well as the QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

The forecast area is sandwiched between high pressure to the
northeast and an area of low pressure to the west this afternoon.
The pressure gradient resulting from this is causing winds to
become gusty especially in the western portion of the forecast
area. Otherwise, it's a fairly pleasant June day out there.

A fair amount of change in the forecast regarding a building
cluster of storms in North Dakota. This cluster is forecast to
move east through our forecast area overnight. This could bring
showers and storms to the area with the strongest storms mainly
south of a line extending from Duluth to Bemidji. Storms are not
anticipated to be severe. In this package, raised PoPs and QPF
considerably in light of the most recent model data. The storms
will likely be decaying as they move through MN as the instability
reservoir vastly weakens into WI; however, a compact area of 0-3
km bulk shear translates eastward faster than the mean flow and
may help to increase the longevity of any cells on the eastern
edge of convection come Saturday morning. Afterwards, the air mass
should be worked over, but lingering instability may spawn some
showers throughout the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

The forecast area is between systems on Sunday before a stronger
more organized system drives a convective line through the
region.

A deepening upper level low begins to move east off of the Rockies
and becomes negatively tilted. This will eject a cold front
eastward with potential to generate wide scale convection on
Monday afternoon/evening. A limiting factor in our neck of the
woods will be how much convection to our south saps the
instability stream leaving little to work with up here as the
triple point of the low is progged to be near southern MN. For
now, this should keep the main severe potential to our south.

This same upper low slowly makes its way east, but a dry slot
following the cold front should keep most of Tuesday dry. As the
upper low moves overhead on Wed into Thu another round of weakly
forced showers and storms are possible.

Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Main concerns overnight are the showers/storms moving in from
north central Minnesota. These will gradually spread in MVFR to
IFR ceilings. Leaned heavily on the RAP/HRRR guidance as other
guidance has performed poorly with this activity. This is a result
of a shortwave moving in across western Minnesota. Anticipate
the shower activity to diminish Saturday morning. Skies will clear
a bit which will gradually lift ceilings to VFR levels. There are
some hints that additional shower/storms will develop Saturday
afternoon, but guidance is all over the place. Therefore
confidence is lower than normal Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  51  68 /  40  30  10  10
INL  55  73  56  79 /  60  30  10  10
BRD  57  76  60  77 /  60  20  10  10
HYR  54  75  57  76 /  40  50  10  10
ASX  48  67  50  69 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...WL
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...WL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1029 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-091030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1029 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Monday night. Some of
these storms could be strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-091030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
1029 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

GSF

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

MNZ033-090530-
South Cass-
1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN CASS COUNTY...

At 1125 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Sebeka, or 36 miles
southwest of Walker, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half-inch hail, heavy downpours, and occasional cloud to ground
lightning can be expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leader and Esterdy.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4662 9478 4654 9462 4638 9473 4638 9476
      4640 9477 4639 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 313DEG 16KT 4663 9495

GSF