Beach Hazards Statement 18, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

At 315 PM, skies were partly sunny across the Northland.
Temperatures were generally in the 70s. There were a few lingering
showers across the tip of the Arrowhead, but those appear to have
moved out in the last several minutes.

The focus for tonight is on low temperatures and cloud trends.
High pressure will continue to build into the region overnight,
resulting in a clearing trend across the region. Overnight lows
should range from the 40s in the north to the 50s in the south.
Cannot rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm late this afternoon
or very early in the evening across the far tip of the Arrowhead
or across our eastern Wisconsin zones, but chance is very small.

Labor day is shaping up to be a dry day across the region, but
high pressure will quickly be replaced by rain moving in Monday
night. Still, it looks like any Labor Day daytime festivities will
go off without a hitch, with plenty of sunshine and highs in the
70s across the Northland.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

A prolonged period of rain Tuesday, then high pressure builds in
leading to dry conditions and seasonable, more fall-like
temperatures mid to late week. Saturday should be dry as southerly
flow develops ahead of a cold front, with a chance for rain on
Sunday as the front moves from west to east across the Upper Midwest.

Early week rainfall forecast remains on track as rich moisture from
the Gulf, favorable along-front storm motions, and broad-scale lift
from an approaching mid-level shortwave trough combined to produce
and incredible amount of rainfall across parts of southern MN into
northern Wisconsin, with northwest Wisconsin being on the northern
edge of the threat for very heavy rainfall. Monday night into
Tuesday afternoon there will be scattered showers/storms associated
with an initial warm front lifting north across the region then a
cold front coming in from the west, but the real threat for very
heavy rainfall and flooding will come Tuesday night when training
thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall rates will develop. The
threat looks to be greatest across northern Wisconsin - in the
Duluth CWA, greatest in Price County with a lower threat for
adjacent counties. There will be a sharp northern gradient in the
rainfall, so it is possible a place like Superior or even Siren sees
little rainfall while Price county might experience 1-2"+ in just a
few hours Tuesday night. The location is certainly subject to change
depending one exactly where the front develops, but the best chance
at this point is across Price county and to the south.

After the Tuesday night rainfall, high pressure gradually builds
over the Upper Midwest. On Wednesday night with the high directly
overhead, lows will fall into the 30s in far northern Minnesota,
with a few of the usual cold spots possibly experience a frost. In
general the frost threat seems limited, but certainly possible given
the high pressure directly overhead. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70
each day, with a chance for rain returning towards Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

High pressure will keep skies clear tonight and winds very light. There
should be some MVFR to IFR fog early in the morning at some TAF
terminals, especially at KHIB and KHYR. The high will still be
over the area tomorrow, with mainly clear skies and winds becoming
east at or below 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  73  58  70 /   0   0  60  70
INL  43  76  56  70 /   0   0  20  60
BRD  50  76  63  74 /   0   0  60  70
HYR  54  77  63  75 /  10  10  70  80
ASX  54  73  58  74 /  10   0  60  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...JTS
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...CLC/JTS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
328 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-032030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
328 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible Monday night through Tuesday night. Very
heavy rainfall rates may lead to flooding in northwest Wisconsin on
Tuesday night, with the threat greatest across Price county.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or
tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-032030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
328 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible Monday night through Tuesday night. A few
strong storms are possible.

Increasing easterly winds Tuesday will lead to building waves across
the north shore, creating conditions that may be hazardous to small
craft.

DAP

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)