Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

First winter storm of the season is still on track for parts of
southwest Kansas. Not much change from previous thinking on the
evolution of the storm. Rain will quickly change to snow through
the mid morning hours from northwest to southeast...with the far
southeast zone potentially seeing a rain/snow mix occurring later
in the afternoon.

The upper level low looks to track through the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles with the frontogentic zone and best lift still on
track to be roughly around the I-70 corridor. Omega values and
saturation of the dendritic zones were highest in the Hays
sounding from late this morning into the afternoon. Overall
snowfall in the northern zones could range from 2-4 inches. Where
ever the heavier band of snow develops could potentially drop a
locally higher amount of 6 inches. Further south and east the
snowfall totals should quickly diminish to roughly an inch or
less. South of the Highway 50 corridor will get little to no
accumulations. Winds will also howl out of the north at 20-35 mph
which could also add blowing snow concerns in the heavier snow
bands.

Tonight as an area of high pressure moves in from the northwest
the snow should quickly taper off around 10 PM with clouds
clearing after midnight. A hard freeze (colder than 28 degrees)
is likely for much of the area by morning with mostly clear skies
and light winds. The exception for the hard freeze looks to be the
far southeast around Medicine Lodge with temperatures around 32
for a low.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Quieter conditions in the long term with the exception of possibly
some light rain on Thursday.

Monday an unseasonably cold air mass continues to hang in the
central plains. With the high pressure moving through southwest
Kansas it should lead to clear skies and light winds with highs in
the low to mid 40s which would be a good 30 degrees below normal.
We certainly could see record cold for high temperatures that
day. (47 for Garden City and 45 for Dodge City).

Tuesday the air mass should moderate more with highs reaching to
near 60 degrees with quiet conditions.

Wednesday into Thursday a slow moving upper level low in the
desert southwest should start to progress eastward. Pacific
moisture will be across much of Texas and southern Oklahoma which
will slowly move northward. Depending on how quickly the cooler,
dry air mass moves out of the central plains will determine if
rain can make it into southern Kansas. The latest GFS thinking is
that much of the rain will stay out of the state until late
Thursday night. The EURO thinks this moisture will move in during
the afternoon on Thursday. Decided to keep POPs in for Thursday at
this time.

Friday into Saturday an upper level trough from the north will
bring in another cold front and sweep out any moisture in the
area. Temperatures could once again be unseasonably cool to start
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Low ceilings (LIFR to IFR), lowered surface visibilities, strong
winds, and rain changing to snow will highlight the TAF time
period. A strong cold front will move through western Kansas
starting as early as 09Z with the significant changes in the wind
direction and speed occurring for all the TAF sites around 12Z.
Rain will also develop as the front passes through combining with
the wind could lower surface visibilities. As the colder air
progresses this rain will change to snow starting at HYS first and
then GCK followed by DDC. The potential for highest snow
accumulations looks to be around HYS and as such with the wind
there could be some blowing snow to also reduce surface
visibilities. Surface visibilities, lowered wind speeds, and
precipitation should all start to improve near the end of the TAF
time period at 06Z. Cloud ceilings should also start to increase
with the potential for clouds breaking up either at the end of the
TAF time period or shortly after.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  27  42  28 /  90  50   0   0
GCK  38  24  40  25 /  90  50   0   0
EHA  37  26  41  27 /  80  40   0   0
LBL  43  27  42  27 /  80  40   0   0
HYS  36  25  41  26 / 100  50   0   0
P28  49  32  47  31 /  90  40  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
Monday for KSZ031-045-046-062>065-074>079-084>087.

Hard Freeze Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>088.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Monday for
KSZ030-043-044-061.

Freeze Watch from this evening through Monday morning for KSZ066-
081-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
305 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

KSZ043-044-140900-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
305 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCOTT AND LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 400
AM CDT...

At 304 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Modoc, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Dighton, Grigston, Healy, Scott State Lake, Modoc,
Shallow Water, Manning, Pendennis, Amy and Shields.

LAT...LON 3870 10031 3827 10035 3834 10113 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 267DEG 31KT 3855 10110

UMSCHEID