Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Lingering rain showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing north of
I-70 and in western counties out of the CWA in the next hour or
two. These morning storms may help in inhibiting severe activity
later this afternoon and evening in expanse of the areas affected
along with severity itself. Right now, short term models indicate
development in the Liberal area after 1600L and spreading up
towards Dodge and Hays after 1700L. There is good shear
indications ahead of a passing shortwave trough pushing through
the CWA, giving chances of quarter sized hail and gusty winds up
to 50-60mph. Models have been jumping around as to exact time and
location of thunderstorm development, but this will happen at some
point late this afternoon and into the evening hours ending before
midnight due to nocturnal cooling inhibiting the instability with
these storms and lifting to the north and northeast of the CWA.
Storm totals will be around .5-1 inch from Liberal through Dodge
to Hays where most thunderstorm development will be, with local
amounts pushing into the 2-4inch range as indicated by some short
term models. Again, however, confidence is not too high with
models jumping around on this forecast not doing the best job and
all depends on where and for how long these storms last to know
the higher rainfall amounts will be located.

Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures will not be as hot as the
previous couple of days only reaching the upper 80s to low 90s due
to the cloud cover and aforementioned rain showers from this
morning. Mid 90s will still be present along the Oklahoma border
in the southeastern counties where there will only be scattered
clouds this afternoon allowing still for a good warm up. Winds
will stay out of the south around 10-15mph not near as windy as
yesterday due to a more relaxed pressure gradient ahead of the
aforementioned upper level disturbance. Tonight's low
temperatures will drop into the low 60s to low 70s northwest to
southeast with cloud cover improving into the morning hours with
lighter winds out of the south less than 10mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

The long term pattern will be quite active over the next several
days as a series of short waves propagate through the high plains
out of the southwest. This will bring cooler temperatures and
daily chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
through Thursday under a fairly zonal pattern to the north and a
deep trough across the southwest. Afternoon high temperatures will
be in the upper 70s to low 80s through Friday before a warm up
into the mid to upper 80s Saturday with upper level ridging
setting in place over the Rocky Mountains into western Kansas.
Morning low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s
throughout the week. Precipitation chances will come to an end
Thursday night and into Friday and the weekend due to a more
northwest flow pattern in the upper levels with the aforementioned
ridge set up to the west. Winds will have an more humid easterly
component throughout the entire week from the southeast to the
northeast helping to aid in the ample low level moisture needed
for a more showery precipitation period throughout the week. The
fifth wettest August on record in Dodge City looks to start the
month of September on the same note helping in keeping the drought
obsolete for southwestern Kansas. Two week to month outlooks look
to be on the wetter side as well, according to NCEP modeling,
looking a lot different than it was this time last year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Thunderstorms near LBL moving north and northeast of the area but
more is in store between 02-06Z along with DDC and GCK associated
with an upper level disturbance propagating through the CWA.
Ongoing thunderstorms on station at HYS restricting visibility as
well as lower ceilings. All sites are still VFR and will continue
so through the period with only 4SM and 3500 feet expected in
thunderstorms. Winds will variably gust in thunderstorms, but
otherwise, they will be out of the south around 8-12kts with a
fairly weak pressure gradient across southwest Kansas. Improving
conditions with lifting ceilings and scattering out of clouds by
daybreak around 12Z lasting throughout the day before a chance for
more rain showers and isolated storms after the end of the period
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  66  84 /  60  40  60  40
GCK  64  86  64  83 /  60  30  60  40
EHA  64  86  63  83 /  70  20  50  30
LBL  67  87  65  84 /  60  30  40  40
HYS  68  86  66  82 /  70  50  70  50
P28  73  89  70  85 /  20  40  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
319 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-021000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
319 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018 /219 AM MDT Sat Sep 1 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible early this morning. A few
of these storms this morning will be capable of producing
lightning, wind gust in excess of 40 mph and moderate rainfall.

Another round of thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
continue tonight. These storms may be severe and produce hail up
to the size of half dollars along with wind gusts of 60 mph.

Periods of heavy rainfall can also be expected which may result in
some ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day from
Sunday through Friday. A few of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday
may produce periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 3 pm northwest of a line
from Meade to Greensburg to Stafford. Rainfall reports are also
encouraged.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             9 NNW CATHERINE         39.04N 99.30W
09/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH SOME WINDS AND GOOD
            RAIN (UNSURE OF SPEED OR AMOUNT).

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
537 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             7 NW CATHERINE          39.00N 99.30W
09/01/2018  E2.00 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            2 INCH HAIL REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

RML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

KSZ030-031-045-046-020000-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
559 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN
TREGO...NORTHWESTERN RUSH AND ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Ness City to 7 miles east
of Emmeram. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Victoria, Walker, Catherine, Schoenchen, McCracken,
Liebenthal, Brownell, Emmeram, Yocemento, Cedar Bluff, Munjor,
Pfeifer, Toulon, Antonino and Riga.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 9904 3845 9998 3901 9961 3913 9936
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 208DEG 26KT 3854 9982 3899 9900

TATRO

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>