Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
635 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

12Z meso models are not doing well with the convection earlier
this morning. The only model that seems to be trending towards a
more correct solution is recent versions of the HRRR. As such,
confidence in this forecast is medium at best. Vis satellite shows
a boundary across SE portions of the forecast area. This boundary
may have retreated back north all the way to KDDC as we have SE
winds now. Therefore, feel the best chance of severe is Dodge City
and points E and SE. Upscale growth should occur fairly rapidly
with this boundary. Main threats will be marginal severe wind and
hail. Any tornado potential would be located across the far SE,
if that. Again, confidence is lower this forecast... we will have
to see how this evolves. Heavy rain of 1-3" could be possible as
well, particularly towards Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

There is a slight chance of storms mainly across the southern
zones tomorrow. Depending how short term convection evolves will
also determine what happens tomorrow. Confidence is low.

Beyond Wednesday, a dry and warm weather pattern is indicated by
the EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Scattered convection near HYS and east of DDC next few hours.
Thunderstorms expected to clear SW KS by 09z Wed. Additional
activity in SE Colorado may approach GCK overnight. Consensus of
short term models suggests IFR stratus will impact HYS and GCK by
12z Wed. Winds mainly light and variable outside of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  89  63  92 /  50   0  20   0
GCK  59  88  61  92 /  10   0  20  10
EHA  60  88  60  95 /  10  10  40   0
LBL  61  89  63  94 /  10   0  30   0
HYS  59  88  63  91 /  70   0  10  10
P28  64  90  67  94 /  80   0  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
331 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
331 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018 /231 AM MDT Tue May 29 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through early
tonight. Tennis ball size hail or larger along with wind gusts of
60 to 70 mph and periods of very heavy rainfall will be possible
from these storms late today and early this evening. An isolated
tornado or two will also be possible.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible near the Oklahoma
border Wednesday evening. Main hazards Wednesday night will be
heavy rainfall, hail up to golf balls, and wind gusts up to 60
mph.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 1 pm along and east of
highway 283.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
643 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             3 SE ELLIS              38.90N 99.52W
05/29/2018  E1.00 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             1 W GREENSBURG          37.61N 99.30W
05/29/2018  E2.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 1 W
            GREENSBURG. 2 INCH HAIL PUBLIC REPORT.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
656 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             2 NNE HOPEWELL          37.83N 98.99W
05/29/2018  E1.25 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             YOCEMENTO               38.91N 99.42W
05/29/2018  E1.50 INCH       ELLIS              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMED PING PING SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

RML

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