Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
716 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Severe weather event getting ready to unfold across southwest
Kansas late this afternoon and evening. As of mid afternoon,
surface low pressure was centered over southeast Colorado near
KSPD. A stationary front/outflow boundary extended from the low
into west central and central Kansas. Farther south, a dryline was
becoming more pronounced from the low into the Texas Panhandle.

The atmosphere continues destabilize across the area this
afternoon per the SPC Mesoanalysis page. MUCAPE values are
increasing to 2000+ j/kg. In addition, 0-6 km shear has been
slowly ramping up to around 40 kts. A special 19z sounding from
KDDC is verifying this and is also showing a capping inversion at
700 mb which was a little more pronounced than the RAP13 soundings
were depicting it earlier today. Per recent runs of the HRRR/RAP
models, storms should develop along the front and dryline mainly
after 4 pm. Storms will initially be discreet with a greater
threat for large hail. Think there will be a window of opportunity
for a few storms developing along the old outflow boundary in
west central Kansas to become briefly tornadic given the enhanced
low level shear along and north of the boundary. The models have
been consistent in showing the storms growing upscale into a
convective line as they move out of far southwest Kansas and the
northeast Texas Panhandle early this evening with the severe
weather threat will switch from large hail to strong/damaging
winds as the storm cluster moves northeast.

Most of the thunderstorm activity will be moving out of central Kansas
around or after midnight. The HRRR has been hinting at storms redeveloping
over southwest Kansas later tonight. Not real confident this will happen
but it will have to be watched.

On Saturday the stationary front is progged to move into south central
Kansas as the remains of the upper low move out into far northwest Kansas.
A fairly cold airmass aloft related to the upper system will keep some
instability in place over the region. A stronger cold front is expected
to move southeast through western Kansas during the afternoon with
widely scattered thunderstorms developing along it. A few severe
storms could develop along the front over south central and parts
of southwest Kansas along the front, as well as some storms up along
I-70 under the colder air aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The medium range models are showing another upper low developing over
the western states early next week. This will keep the central High
Plains under a general southwesterly flow aloft pattern through mid
week. The models show subtle disturbances moving out over the region
but the strength and timing of these features is uncertain. Forecast
Builder has some slight chance to chance pops through the week
which looks good for now. An upper level ridge builds over the
central CONUS later next week which should result in daytime high
temperatures back up into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and move
northeast across portions of southwest into central and south
central Kansas through this evening. The Dodge City and Hays
terminals will likely be the most impacted by these storms with
hail up to golf ball size and strong winds at Dodge City. Strong
thunderstorm wind gusts and heavy rain may the be main impacts at
Hays. Conditions should be improving across the area after 04-06z.
Some MVFR stratus could impact Hays and possibly Garden City later
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  82  51  73 /  50  20  20  10
GCK  57  78  48  71 /  40  20  10  10
EHA  56  81  47  73 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  60  82  49  74 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  61  79  51  70 /  60  20  20  10
P28  66  91  57  78 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
319 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
319 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 /219 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
evening time frame along and east of dryline oriented north to
south along the Highway 83 corridor. The main threat will be large
hail up to baseball sized and damaging winds over 60 mph along
with a couple of tornados being possible. West of the dryline,
there will be significant fire weather with relative humidity
values about 17-18 percent and strong south winds gusting up to
35 mph.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Severe weather threat will return Monday through Thursday with
large hail over two inches and damaging winds over 60 mph possible
during this time. Fire weather risk will be elevated Tuesday
through Thursday west of a dryline for the western counties where
relative humidity values will be around 20 percent and increased
south winds up to 25-30 mph.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  No hazards.

* Tuesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 4PM along and east of line
through the highway 83 corridor late this afternoon and evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
738 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE DODGE CITY        37.76N 100.0W
05/18/2018                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOW OFF A BUILDING AT THE FORD CO
            SHERIFFS OFFICE COMPLEX.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
745 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             INGALLS                 37.83N 100.45W
05/18/2018  E1.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
748 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E DODGE CITY          37.76N 99.97W
05/18/2018  M64 MPH          FORD               KS   ASOS

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
804 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     HAIL             3 E SHALLOW WATER       38.37N 100.85W
05/18/2018  E0.75 INCH       SCOTT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             1 SSW GRIGSTON          38.47N 100.72W
05/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
819 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SSE FRIEND            38.22N 100.88W
05/18/2018                   FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF