Severe Thunderstorm Warning 382, NWS Dodge City, KS

361 
WWUS53 KDDC 301438
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
938 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSC047-097-301446-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0382.000000T0000Z-180830T1500Z/
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
938 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL KIOWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

Hail up to one half inch remains possible.
Wind gusts to 40 mph remain possible.

Very heavy rainfall and localized flooding will continue with this 
storm. Frequent dangerous lightning will continue. 

LAT...LON 3771 9946 3785 9954 3796 9925 3772 9913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 257DEG 9KT 3780 9938 

$$

TURNER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

As of 07z convection was developing across portions of western
Kansas. Latest HRRR and NAM appears to have a decent handle with
this continuing through 12z to 14z, mainly near and north of
Garden City and Dodge City. Near term models also showing some fog
developing towards daybreak as well. Confidence at this time is
not high that there will be areas of dense fog but visibilities
falling to less than one mile will be likely. Given the light
southeast flow and dewpoints in the 60s the potential does exist
north of the Arkansas River for dense fog so will continue to
monitor trends and adjust forecast if needed.

Gusty south to southwest winds are expected to develop this
afternoon as a surface boundary lifts north as a warm front across
western Kansas. Westerly downslope flow, the forecast warming
trend in the 850mb to 700mb temperatures, and afternoon late
August sunshine continues to support highs climbing back into 90
to 95 degree range across western Kansas. Could even see a few
upper 90s by the end of the day near the Oklahoma panhandle
border.

Tonight lows will be mainly in the 70 to 75 degree range.Lows in
the 60s will be possible again west and north of Garden City.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

A surface cold front will drop south across the Northern Plains
on Friday. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue across
western Kansas which will be located near the 850mb temperature
axis that will exist just south of the cold front.

This surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas Friday
night as an upper level trough crosses the Central Rockies and
moves out into the Western High Plains. Given the moisture and
lift ahead of this upper level system along with the location of
the surface cold front there will be improving chances for
convection across western Kansas late friday and Saturday. A few
storms Friday night currently appears to have the potential to
produce strong gusty winds and possibly some small hail

The chances for thunderstorms will continue from late this
weekend through early next week as subtle upper level waves
embedded in a south/southwesterly flow crosses the West Central
High Plains. Only real question will be how far east these chances
for precipitation will be given the differing solutions of where
the better moisture return will be and how the eastern United
States upper high evolves. As for temperatures early next week
will continue to keep them below the seasonal averages for the
first few days of September given the expected moisture/cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

As of 10z Thursday a few strong thunderstorms had developed this
morning across southwest Kansas. One of these storms will impact
mainly the Dodge City area before weakening/dissipating between
13Z and 15Z. The other thunderstorms should stay between Garden
City and Hays. In addition to these storms there will also be some
widespread low IFR and LIFR stratus across early this morning
along with some patchy fog. Ceilings below 300 ft AGL will be
possible at Dodge City and Hays through 14z and then begin to
gradually improve. Visibilities early this morning should vary
from 1/2 to 1 inch at times for the next few hours. At Garden City
and Liberal there will be a chance for some scattered low clouds
and patchy fog also but visibilities will not be a low as what is
expected at Dodge City or Hays.

Southeast winds at less than 10 knots this morning will become
more southerly by noon as the wind increases to near 15 knots and
skies clear. Gusty south to southwest winds will then increase to
near 20 knots between 18z and 21z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  73  98  70 /  20  10   0  20
GCK  94  70  99  67 /   0  10  10  40
EHA  96  71  98  67 /  10  10  10  40
LBL  98  72  99  68 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  90  73  98  70 /  20  10   0  20
P28  94  74  99  73 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-311045-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018 /442 AM MDT Thu Aug 30 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible early this morning
across portions of southwest Kansas. Main hazards this morning
will be hail up to the size of quarters. Patchy fog can also be
expected early this morning across southwest and north central
Kansas. Visibilities will fall to less than one mile at times
early this morning.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fog: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms Friday night and again late Saturday. The main
hazards currently appears to be wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph and
quarter size hail.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
631 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ077-078-087-088-301230-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
631 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FORD...NORTHEASTERN
MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 730
AM CDT...

At 630 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Ensign, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneola.

LAT...LON 3749 10030 3760 10024 3763 9991 3734 10003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1130Z 277DEG 11KT 3754 10024

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
733 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ045-301330-
Ness KS-
733 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY UNTIL
830 AM CDT...

At 732 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ransom, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bazine, Ransom, Brownell and Arnold.

LAT...LON 3849 10005 3869 10004 3869 9962 3842 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1232Z 272DEG 19KT 3861 9996

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
740 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ064-078-301345-
Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
740 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

At 740 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Wright, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spearville and Bellefont.

LAT...LON 3787 10002 3798 9998 3794 9960 3772 9967
TIME...MOT...LOC 1240Z 292DEG 25KT 3790 9994

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
826 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ064-065-079-301415-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
826 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HODGEMAN...WEST CENTRAL
PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 825 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles southeast of Jetmore, moving east at 15 mph.

Hail up to one half inch in diameter and wind gusts to near 40 mph
are possible from this storm.

Localized flooding is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gray, Jetmore and Hanston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 9991 3813 9996 3823 9956 3795 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1325Z 258DEG 11KT 3806 9985

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
833 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ078>080-301415-
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
833 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 833 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Ford, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Ford...northwestern Kiowa and southwestern Edwards Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 9970 3771 9972 3776 9945 3760 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 258DEG 11KT 3764 9967

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
906 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ064-065-078>080-301500-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
906 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...NORTHERN
KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN...SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND EDWARDS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

At 905 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Gray to 3 miles west of
Greensburg. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Hail up to one half inch is possible.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible.
Localized flooding is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kinsley, Lewis, Offerle, Rozel, Fellsburg and Centerview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 9935 3769 9906 3758 9946 3809 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 1405Z 242DEG 19KT 3805 9956 3761 9936

TURNER