Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Dodge City, KS

410 
WWUS53 KDDC 260054
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
754 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

KSC135-145-165-260115-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0330.000000T0000Z-180726T0115Z/
Ness KS-Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
754 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTIES...

At 754 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southwest of
Rush Center, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
La Crosse, Bison, Rush Center, Timken, Alexander, Ash Valley, Nekoma,
Hargrave and Shaffer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 9955 3849 9904 3828 9904 3828 9968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 336DEG 26KT 3843 9938 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJOHNSON

062 
WWUS53 KDDC 260106
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
806 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

KSC135-145-165-260116-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0330.000000T0000Z-180726T0115Z/
Ness KS-Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
806 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHERN
PAWNEE AND SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central, central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3858 9955 3849 9904 3828 9904 3828 9968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 334DEG 34KT 3834 9932 

$$

JJOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

A cold frontal boundary was pushing south through northern and
northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado early this afternoon,
partially aided by outflow from overnight/early morning thunderstorms
across Nebraska. Strong heating has pushed temperatures into the
mid 90s across much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints
mixing out into the upper 50s to low 60s. Resulting MLCAPEs have
increased to 1000-2000 j/kg especially across the western half of
the forecast area. In addition, deep layer (0-6km) shear has
increased into the 30-40 knot range mainly over central and parts
of west central Kansas.

Isolated thunderstorms were forming over north central Kansas early
this afternoon in an area of enhanced low level convergence.
CAMs show this trend continuing with storms developing farther
west into west central Kansas and southeast Colorado. Given the
instability and shear, thunderstorms will initially be capable of
producing hail up to golf ball size along with damaging wind
gusts to 70 mph. As we move into the evening hours, thunderstorms
should continue to become more numerous and move south across the
remainder of southwest Kansas overnight. Strong to damaging winds
will become the main severe weather threat, especially if storms
are able to become organized into bow/line segments. Think that by
midnight, the severe threat should be diminishing considerably as
the front/outflow pushes through the region. There will be a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms into the late night
hours as a mid level shortwave disturbance moves out over the
High Plains.

Thursday will be quite a bit cooler as a cooler airmass pushes
into the central High Plains behind the front. Chances for
additional showers and thunderstorms will be fairly small to
negligible as the stable airmass overspreads the region. Highs on
Thursday should top out in the low to mid 80s, depending on how
much lingering cloud cover there is.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Thursday night will be noticeably quieter across western Kansas.
The greatest instability will be shifted west into the Colorado
Front Range where afternoon thunderstorms will initiate. Don't
have a lot of confidence they will reach the Kansas border but
will maintain some slight chance pops in the far southwest just in
case. There could be some lingering showers and possible
thunderstorms along the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas as
well.

On Friday, the surface high pressure slides off to the east with
moist low level return flow setting up across the western High
Plains. Another weak fast moving shortwave disturbance is progged
to move out of the northern Rockies out over the central High
Plains late Friday. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to suggest
afternoon thunderstorm development over the eastern slopes that
organizes into a convective complex that move out over western
Kansas Friday night.

The upper level pattern of somewhat cyclonic northwest flow aloft
continues through the weekend which will keep conditions favorable
for repeated nighttime thunderstorm complexes. By early next week,
the upper ridge builds back toward the central High Plains which
should bring a decrease in the wet weather pattern across the
central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity is expected to
affect all terminals this period. Best time frame will be mid to
late evening hours. After midnight (05Z), much of the activity
will be shifting to the south with an overal weakening trend,
although some scattered showers/weak thunderstorms may continue
through about 08-10Z. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will become
northeast late in the period behind all the storms. Stratus will
also probably exist in the cooler/moist airmass, although there is
not a high degree of confidence in extent and ceiling. Some
MVFR/IFR may be possible Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  83  63  84 /  80  30  10  20
GCK  66  82  62  83 /  80  30  10  20
EHA  64  83  64  85 /  60  20  20  20
LBL  65  84  65  85 /  80  20  20  20
HYS  66  81  63  84 /  60  40  10  10
P28  70  84  66  87 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
255 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018 /155 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening and
tonight. Storms will begin across the northern counties during the
5-7 pm timeframe, and propogate southward through midnight. The
strongest storms will be severe, producing hail up to golfball
size and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Locally very heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning can be expected.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm hail: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday.
Models continue to focus the most widespread activity, and the
highest risk of flooding rains/damaging winds during the Friday
night/Saturday morning time frame. Additional thunderstorm
complexes are expected periodically through the weekend.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected to be required, mainly across the
northern counties, this evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
707 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELLIS                   38.93N 99.56W
07/25/2018                   ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF POWER LINE DOWN.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
713 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             5 W TREGO CENTER        38.90N 99.99W
07/25/2018  E0.88 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W TREGO CENTER        38.90N 99.99W
07/25/2018  E60 MPH          TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE MANNING           38.60N 100.69W
07/25/2018  E60 MPH          SCOTT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
729 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W ANTONINO            38.77N 99.50W
07/25/2018  E50 MPH          ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            2-3 IN DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BROKE.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
731 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 N ELLIS              39.11N 99.54W
07/25/2018                   ELLIS              KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS OF A SHED BLOWN ONTO VEHICLES AND 8
            IN. DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES BROKE.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
735 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE ELLIS              38.94N 99.55W
07/25/2018                   ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO A
            SCHOOL AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

GT