Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Dodge City, KS

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WWUS53 KDDC 252328
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

KSC051-195-260000-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0325.000000T0000Z-180726T0000Z/
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
628 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES...

At 627 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Riga, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Ogallah, Yocemento, Riga, Toulon and Munjor. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9976 3913 9932 3879 9915 3879 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 334DEG 23KT 3908 9960 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JJOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
314 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

...Updated short and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

A cold frontal boundary was pushing south through northern and
northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado early this afternoon,
partially aided by outflow from overnight/early morning thunderstorms
across Nebraska. Strong heating has pushed temperatures into the
mid 90s across much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints
mixing out into the upper 50s to low 60s. Resulting MLCAPEs have
increased to 1000-2000 j/kg especially across the western half of
the forecast area. In addition, deep layer (0-6km) shear has
increased into the 30-40 knot range mainly over central and parts
of west central Kansas.

Isolated thunderstorms were forming over north central Kansas early
this afternoon in an area of enhanced low level convergence.
CAMs show this trend continuing with storms developing farther
west into west central Kansas and southeast Colorado. Given the
instability and shear, thunderstorms will initially be capable of
producing hail up to golf ball size along with damaging wind
gusts to 70 mph. As we move into the evening hours, thunderstorms
should continue to become more numerous and move south across the
remainder of southwest Kansas overnight. Strong to damaging winds
will become the main severe weather threat, especially if storms
are able to become organized into bow/line segments. Think that by
midnight, the severe threat should be diminishing considerably as
the front/outflow pushes through the region. There will be a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms into the late night
hours as a mid level shortwave disturbance moves out over the
High Plains.

Thursday will be quite a bit cooler as a cooler airmass pushes
into the central High Plains behind the front. Chances for
additional showers and thunderstorms will be fairly small to
negligible as the stable airmass overspreads the region. Highs on
Thursday should top out in the low to mid 80s, depending on how
much lingering cloud cover there is.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Thursday night will be noticeably quieter across western Kansas.
The greatest instability will be shifted west into the Colorado
Front Range where afternoon thunderstorms will initiate. Don't
have a lot of confidence they will reach the Kansas border but
will maintain some slight chance pops in the far southwest just in
case. There could be some lingering showers and possible
thunderstorms along the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas as
well.

On Friday, the surface high pressure slides off to the east with
moist low level return flow setting up across the western High
Plains. Another weak fast moving shortwave disturbance is progged
to move out of the northern Rockies out over the central High
Plains late Friday. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to suggest
afternoon thunderstorm development over the eastern slopes that
organizes into a convective complex that move out over western
Kansas Friday night.

The upper level pattern of somewhat cyclonic northwest flow aloft
continues through the weekend which will keep conditions favorable
for repeated nighttime thunderstorm complexes. By early next week,
the upper ridge builds back toward the central High Plains which
should bring a decrease in the wet weather pattern across the
central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

VFR conditions along with southerly winds gusting to 25-30 knots
at times are expected at the terminals through this afternoon. An
outflow boundary from overnight storms in Nebraska is approaching
west central Kansas and could result in variable winds at Hays.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the I-70 corridor later this afternoon and continue to
develop and become more numerous into southwest Kansas this evening.
Wind gusts at 25 to 45 knots, and possibly stronger, will be the
main threat from these storms. Large hail will also be possible
especially around Hays. The severe threat should diminish at all
terminals by 04-05z with showers and thunderstorms gradually
diminishing through the remainder of the night and early Thursday.
There could also be some MVFR cigs developing later tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  83  63  84 /  60  30  10  20
GCK  66  82  62  83 /  70  20  10  20
EHA  64  83  64  85 /  60  20  20  20
LBL  65  84  65  85 /  70  20  20  20
HYS  66  81  63  84 /  70  20  10  10
P28  70  84  66  87 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
255 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018 /155 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening and
tonight. Storms will begin across the northern counties during the
5-7 pm timeframe, and propogate southward through midnight. The
strongest storms will be severe, producing hail up to golfball
size and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Locally very heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning can be expected.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm hail: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday.
Models continue to focus the most widespread activity, and the
highest risk of flooding rains/damaging winds during the Friday
night/Saturday morning time frame. Additional thunderstorm
complexes are expected periodically through the weekend.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected to be required, mainly across the
northern counties, this evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

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