Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

858 
WWUS53 KDDC 190135
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
835 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

KSC119-175-190145-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180319T0200Z/
Seward KS-Meade KS-
835 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD AND
NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Dodge City.

LAT...LON 3709 10085 3747 10057 3736 10012 3700 10064
      3700 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 214DEG 39KT 3736 10050 

$$

GERARD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
633 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

An upper level low, currently over southeastern Colorado will
slide into southwestern Kansas this evening enhancing lift.
Towards the surface, an area of low pressure and associated
frontal boundary will move into far western Kansas this evening
then along the KS/OK border overnight. A few storms are expected
to form across far southwestern Kansas late this afternoon and
spread northeast this evening. A few of these storms may become
strong to severe before midnight with wind and hail being the main
concern. Continued showers are expected overnight as the upper
level feature oozes eastward with wrap around moisture across
western Kansas. The best chance of precipitation will be across
central Kansas overnight where around an inch of precipitation is
possible. Far southwestern Kansas will have the least chance of
precipitation and some places may not receive any at all. Light
showers look to continue tomorrow due to wrap around moisture from
the aforementioned system. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies
with some clearing across far western Kansas in the afternoon.
Strong northerly winds are also expected to continue tomorrow. As
for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the mid 30s with
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow only look to
reach into the 40s with around 50 degrees across far southwestern
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A dry weather pattern returns through Friday as an upper level
ridge starts out over the western United States then into the
Plains by Friday. There looks to be a disturbance to move through
the Northern Plains Friday, but will be to far north to affect
western Kansas. Models then suggest a disturbance to move through
the area this weekend. Confidence on timing and location are still
low and will watch future model runs for a better pattern to
emerge. As for temperatures, highs will start out in the 50s
Tuesday with low 80s possible Friday. We then return into the 70s
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread northeast
across southwest into central Kansas through the late afternoon
and evening hours. A few of the storms may impact the area terminals
with brief heavy rain, 1/2" hail and gusty winds. Prevailing winds
will be gusty from the east to Southeast through the evening but
will switch to the north by around and become gusty as a surface
low pressure system moves from southeast Colorado into northern
Oklahoma. Cigs will drop into the MVFR to possibly IFR category
with the northerly winds. Cigs will be improving later in the
period as the storm system moves east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  45  28  58 /  90  50  10   0
GCK  36  46  26  58 /  70  40  10   0
EHA  36  51  27  60 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  37  49  26  60 /  60  20   0   0
HYS  36  42  27  55 / 100  80  30   0
P28  42  49  32  58 /  90  50  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061-074-084.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
524 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-191030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
524 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 /424 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will develop early this evening
south of the Arkansas River between Liberal and Ashland. The strongest
storm will be capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts and hail to quarter
size. Critical fire weather conditions are expected from Elkhart to
Johnson to Syracuse this afternoon.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
Strong north winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to around 45 mph, are
expected Monday. Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely
Tuesday afternoon and again later in the week as the next very warm
airmass develops.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Snow: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
734 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

KSZ077-086-087-190115-
Seward KS-Gray KS-Meade KS-
734 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SEWARD...CENTRAL
MEADE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Kismet, or 7 miles south of Plains, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meade, Plains, Fowler, Kismet, Missler, Meade State Lake and The
Hobart Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Meade Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 10076 3759 10047 3741 10011 3740 10011
      3702 10058
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 217DEG 40KT 3715 10061

GERARD