Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
548 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Another round of storms and rain showers expected late this
afternoon and into the over night hours due to another passing
upper level disturbance circulating around a deep trough across
the desert southwest. Expect northern counties to be the start of
where storms start according to the short term models after 4PM.
These will be where the most prolonged storms will be through the
morning time frame with flooding being a major concern for these
northern tiers of counties that already received substantial
amount of rainfall the last couple of days, especially last night.
Expect these storms to expand in coverage backbuilding to the
southwest through the evening time frame towards sunset, making
its way to the Oklahoma border later tonight. 850mb moisture
advection looks very prominent for western Kansas helping to aide
in the aforementioned flooding concerns. 1-3 inches are expected
in these northern counties with localized areas up to 5 inches
possible. All other areas will see around 1 inch to less than that
towards the Colorado and Oklahoma borders. There is still the
possibility of damaging winds up to 60mph and hail up to quarter
size due to the substantial enough amount of instability with cape
values pushing into the 2000J/kg range. Lapse rates and shear
values don't look too impressive, so confidence in these look to
be minimal at best with flooding being the major concern.

Otherwise, expect another seasonal afternoon with high
temperatures pushing into the mid to upper 80s but feeling warmer
with the ample low level moisture, as mentioned before. Dewpoints
will stay in the 60s all day pushing 70 in some areas giving
minimum relative humidity values in the 50 percent range. Under a
weak pressure gradient, winds will stay out of the south in the
10-15 mph outside of the aforementioned thunderstorm wind
concerns. Mid level clouds will expand and increase in coverage
through the evening time frame and storms beginning to develop
before improving once again towards and after day break Monday
morning. Over night low temperatures will mainly be in the 60s
with any storms left pushing out of the CWA to the north and
northeast. Winds will stay out of south and be relatively light
once again with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 80s
once again. Thunderstorm and rain shower development looks to
begin once again Monday afternoon after the 4-5PM time frame
looking at some of the same concerns with flooding but with
minimal severe weather threats with winds only up to 40mph and
small hail dime size at best.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Any storms left over Monday night will soon dissipate and push out
of the CWA by day break and morning hours. Low temperatures will
start Tuesday off in the mid to upper 60s with high temperatures
pushing into the low 80s across the entire area due to the
abundant cooler moisture pool at the surface. Increasing clouds
throughout the day once again with winds out of the southeast
10-15mph. Storm chances increase again late in the afternoon into
the evening and over night hours with northern and eastern
counties having the best chances. Flooding concerns will once
again be on the lookout for the northern tiers of counties with
additional precipitation expected on an already moistened rich
soil from all the previous rains the past few days. No severe
weather is expected at this point but smaller hail and winds could
still be possible amongst the many storms expected to inhibit
southwest Kansas. Otherwise expect low temperatures Tuesday night
to only be in the mid 60s, light southeasterly winds, and
improving conditions by day break.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be similar in set up with another
couple rounds of shortwave disturbances propagating through
western Kansas bringing rain chances and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon and evening time frames. High temperatures will be in
the upper 70s to low 80s and winds still out of the east to
southeast 10-15 mph. Upslope moist flow will help aid in ample
low level moisture needed for fuel to these rain showers and
thunderstorm chances. Low temperatures will still only be in the
60s with storms ending and pushing out of the CWA by sunrise.

Drier conditions expected to start on Friday and into the weekend
as the upper level ridge extends across the Rocky Mountains and
western high plains giving a quieter weather pattern out of the
northwest. Minimal chances for eastern counties getting any
precipitation Friday through Sunday. High temperatures will be
back on the rise with upper 70s Friday, low to mid 80s Saturday,
and upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday. Morning low temperatures will
be more seasonable for this time of year starting off in the
upper 50s to just above 60 and winds staying out of the south to
southeast not much above 10 mph helping to aid in possible fog and
stratus development during this time due to all the recent rain
and upslope low level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

VFR conditions will prevail during the entire TAF period. Winds
currently in the 8-12kt range out of the south under a fairly weak
pressure gradient with high pressure to the east and low pressure
to the west. Another upper level disturbance progged to push
through the CWA later this afternoon and throughout the night time
hours once again. Currently, active storms near HYS and look to
push southward later in the night after 06Z at the other TAF sites
through daybreak around 12Z. After, expect improving conditions
before another onset of storms after the end of the TAF period 00Z
with possibility for before. Models haven't done the best on
location and timing, so opted out of putting any storm development
at the end of the period before 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  83  66  82 /  60  40  50  30
GCK  64  82  64  83 /  60  40  40  30
EHA  63  82  62  84 /  50  30  40  20
LBL  65  83  65  84 /  50  40  40  30
HYS  66  81  67  81 /  90  40  60  40
P28  70  85  69  81 /  60  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ031-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
332 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-030845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
332 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018 /232 AM MDT Sun Sep 2 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There are chances of thunderstorms through tonight. The best
chance of strong to severe storms is from mid afternoon through
the evening hours. Hail as large as half dollars and winds to 60
mph can be expected with the strongest storms. Locally heavy rains
are expected, with the best chance for the heavy rain along the
Interstate 70 corridor.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There are good chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday,
with smaller chances Thursday and Friday. The storms Monday
through Wednesday will contain locally heavy rain.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through the
evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

jf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 NNE HAZELTON          37.17N 98.37W
09/02/2018                   BARBER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER LOCATED 4 S ATTICA LOOKING WEST
            REPORTED A FUNNEL THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
719 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSZ031-046-030115-
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
719 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RUSH AND SOUTHERN ELLIS
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 719 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near La Crosse, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Crosse, Bison, Schoenchen, Rush Center, Liebenthal, Loretta,
Nekoma, Hargrave, Pfeifer, Munjor and Antonino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 9904 3843 9921 3845 9951 3881 9954
      3884 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 187DEG 17KT 3853 9933

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
756 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW TREGO CENTER       38.82N 99.96W
09/02/2018                   TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

            4-6 INCH TREE BRANCHES SNAPPED.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
817 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW PAWNEE ROCK       38.20N 99.00W
09/02/2018  M1.17 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION LRDK1, 4 SSW PAWNEE ROCK.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
854 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LARNED                  38.18N 99.11W
09/02/2018  M3.44 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KLLMS, LARNED.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
956 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW PAWNEE ROCK       38.20N 99.00W
09/02/2018  M1.42 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION LRDK1, 4 SSW PAWNEE ROCK.

&&

GT