Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
119 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Tonight...Agree with the Storm Prediction Center slight risk area
roughly north of a Lusk to Scottsbluff to Alliance line, where CAPES
are 1500 to 2500 J/kg with shear values near 40 knots. Anticipate
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through this evening, some
strong to severe, mainly east of Interstate 25, as a shortwave
trough rotates across our counties. Clearing skies late this
evening and overnight.

4th of July...Cooler and more stable in the wake of a cold front.
Expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms along the Laramie Range and
nearby locations with moist upslope easterly winds.

Wednesday night...Isolated evening thunderstorms dissipating with
clearing skies thereafter.

Thursday...Despite ridging aloft, we should see isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon developing
along and near the Colorado state line in moist flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Friday...Warming trend continues as the ridge aloft strengthens and
700 mb temperatures increase. Perhaps a few thunderstorms in the
afternoon over and near the mountains, otherwise dry.

Saturday/Sunday...Mostly dry and hot weather prevails under strong
ridging aloft.

Monday/Tuesday...Will see a slow decrease in high temperatures as
the ridge aloft weakens somewhat. Models indicate an increase in
moisture on Tuesday which may produce an increase in afternoon and
evening shower and thunderstorm coverage, though for now, will
keep it mostly dry to match our neighboring offices.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

In general, VFR conditions prevails. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the Laramie Range this afternoon, likely
increasing in coverage & intensity as they move east across south-
east Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Some storms could
be strong to severe, with hail as well as gusty/erratic winds. The
potential also exists for brief MVFR conditions associated w/heavy
precipitation cores.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Low afternoon and evening humidities, from 10 to 20 percent west
of a Douglas to Laramie line, though fortunately, winds will
remain relatively light in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
353 AM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

WYZ101-103>107-109>119-041000-
Converse County Lower Elevations-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
353 AM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Wyoming...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening along and east of Interstate 25. Some storms may be
severe with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Friday. A few
strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday along a
stationary front. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threats.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter Activation may be needed this evening across eastern
Wyoming.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ102-108-041000-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Niobrara County-Goshen County-
353 AM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening along and east of Interstate 25. Some storms may be
severe with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Friday. A few
strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday along a
stationary front. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threats.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter Activation may be needed this evening across the northern
Nebraska panhandle.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1234 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018

WYZ117>119-031915-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
East Laramie County WY-
1234 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 115
PM MDT...

At 1234 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Warren AFB, or near Cheyenne, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, South Greeley, Ranchettes, Warren AFB, Frontier Park, North
Cheyenne, Warren Af Base, Fox Farm-College and South Greeley High.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 1 and 27.
 Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 352 and 381.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 10510 4152 10466 4101 10436 4100 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 242DEG 20KT 4114 10490

Hammer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
127 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018

WYZ117>119-032015-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
East Laramie County WY-
127 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 126 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
South Greeley, or near Cheyenne, moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mainly rural areas of south central Laramie County.

This includes Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 365 and
383.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 10475 4123 10441 4100 10438 4100 10475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 265DEG 10KT 4108 10469

Hammer

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