Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Cheyenne, WY

691 
WWUS55 KCYS 142003
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
203 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

WYC001-021-142013-
/O.CAN.KCYS.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-180514T2030Z/
Albany WY-Laramie WY-
203 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBANY AND
NORTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4156 10557 4169 10540 4160 10508 4139 10526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 291DEG 12KT 4151 10534 

$$

Rubin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
123 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Tonight...Expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue to
increase in coverage and intensity as a shortwave trough feature
moves overhead through the evening. CAPE ranges from 1000 to 1800
J/kg with shear only around 25 knots, so expect the strongest storms
to produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph through the early
evening with the main threat being locally heavy rain from slow
moving storms. Greatest coverage will be near the Colorado state
line from Laramie to Cheyenne to Sidney this evening. Storms will
decrease rapidly in coverage with loss of heating by late evening
and after midnight. Again, areas of fog expected late.

Tuesday...Expect a lesser coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
warmer temperatures aloft as heights rise somewhat. Still though,
will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon along and near the Laramie Range.

Tuesday night...Showers and thunderstorms will move slowly east
across far southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska panhandle in
the early evening, then dissipate with loss of daytime heating.

Wednesday...Warmer temperatures will occur with more sunshine and
with 700 mb temperatures rising to near 9 Celsius. It appears that
warming temperatures aloft combined with drier air at low and mid
levels will preclude most thunderstorm formation.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Thursday...Looks like the best chance for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening over our eastern counties
as the flow aloft becomes southwest with lowering heights and decent
low level convergence noted along and east of I-25, along with CAPE
of 2000 to 3000 J/kg over the Nebraska Panhandle.

Friday...As the next trough aloft approaches from Colorado,
negatively tilted, a cold front will move south across our counties
producing cool and moist upslope northeast winds. With a nearly
saturated airmass, and moist flow aloft over the cool dome, expect
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening, along with cooler temperatures.

Saturday...The slow moving trough aloft moves overhead, with the
cool surface boundary layer air well in place. With a nearly
saturated airmass, along with dynamical lift and upslope lift and
diurnal heating, expect scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms again in the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures
will all of the cloud cover and falling precipitation.

Sunday...The upper trough opens up overhead and with more subsidence
behind the trough axis, expect to see only isolated to scattered
coverage of showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of I-25, since it
will be more stable further to the east.

Monday...Although weak ridging aloft persists, there will be
adequate low and mid level moisture to produce isolated to
scattered late day showers and thunderstorms south of a Rawlins to
Lusk line. Warming temperatures with less cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Latest radar loop was showing a few showers and thunderstorms
developing over the mountain ranges. The latest HRRRX is showing
this convection spreading east during the afternoon. May see some
pea to marble size hail occur with this convection as it moves
east this afternoon. The instability is progged to be a little
greater than yesterday in areas along and east of the Laramie
Range which could favor a bit stronger storms along with heavy
rainfall. The HRRRX also shows this convection spreading east into
the Nebraska panhandle this evening similar to yesterday. After
the convection moves out of the picture we will once again see
some patchy fog.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Minimal concerns based on expected winds and humidities, although
humidities will range from 15 to 20 percent Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons across Carbon County of Wyoming.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
433 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096-WYZ106>108-115>119-151100-
Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
South Sioux-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
433 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There will be some patchy fog this morning, some locally dense.
Otherwise scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into this evening. No severe storms are expected but
some locally heavy rain is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will exist mainly through Saturday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NEZ002-095-WYZ101>105-109>114-151100-
Dawes-North Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
433 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
into this evening. No severe storms are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will exist mainly through Saturday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.