High Wind Watch 30, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1145 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Added FWZ 309 to the current Red Flag Warning today as numerous
sensors ovr the south Laramie Range hitting warning criteria this
morning. Latest VWP showing an increase in winds around 11K feet.
Humidity has fallen to single digits at Buford, Pumpkin Vine and
Wildcat Hills with gusts exceeding 25 mph. Expect these
conditions to continue through the remainder of the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Current water vapor imagery indicated a north-south upper ridge
axis over the High Plains, and eastern Pacific upper low/trough
offshore the British Columbia/WA/OR/Northern CA coast. An MCS was
progressing east across eastern NE/far southeast SD/northwest IA.
A few showers developed from north of Torrington into southern
Sioux County overnight. Skies were clear to partly cloudy with
light and variable winds. Temperatures were in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

00Z short range models/ensembles prog the upper ridge to shift
east into the Great Plains this afternoon and MS Valley late
Sunday. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific trough will track east
across the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Northern Rockies by Monday
morning. Surface trough will extend from the Laramie Range to a
low over southeast MT this afternoon. Favored area for strong
convection be over northeast WY and western SD, with perhaps a few
strong storms developing as far south as northeast Converse into
Niobrara counties late this afternoon and move east across the
extreme northern NE Panhandle early this evening. Hail to the size
of nickels and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with these
storms. The remainder of the CWA will be warm and dry, with rather
gusty west to southwest winds developing across Carbon County
this afternoon creating critical fire weather conditions for lower
elevations of the Snowy and Sierra Madre mountains (see Fire
Weather for more details).

Dry cold front will be progressing west to east across WY Sunday,
and through the NE Panhandle Sunday evening. Strong and gusty
west to southwest winds will shift to the west to northwest after
frontal passage. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and behind the front over western Converse County
and northeast NE Panhandle. Will need to watch strong subsidence
in the wake of the front and 700mb winds 40-45 kt for the potential
of higher winds along the central and southern Laramie Range between
midnight and 6 AM Monday. Not confident for a High Wind Watch at
this time. After highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s Sunday, Monday/s
high temperatures will be 10-20 degrees cooler. Northwesterly
winds will be breezy throughout the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Upper level pattern will be dominated by a broad subtropical ridge
across the southern CONUS and progressively active near zonal flow
across the northern CONUS through Wednesday. This will favor a dry
and warm period with generally light winds. The ridge begins to
amplify over the Great Plains Thursday as a trough moves into the
Pacific Northwest. A surface trough over the eastern WY plains
may be the focus for at least isolated afternoon/evening
convection Thursday and Friday. Above normal temperatures will
prevail to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

VFR flight conditions are expected at all terminals through the
period. Gusty southwest winds will develop behind a cold front
moving from west to east this afternoon and evening.There is a
slight chance for VCTS at BFF and CDR late this afternoon but
coverage will be very limited and impacts are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

A warm and dry weather pattern will continue this weekend as a upper
level ridge of high pressure dominates the districts. Strong and gusty
west to southwest winds combined with low relative humidities and ready
fuels will result in critical fire weather conditions for zones 305,
307 and 309 this weekend. A dry cold front will move west to east across
the districts late Sunday, with strong and gusty west to northwest winds
Sunday night and Monday. It will be much cooler Monday, however minimum
humidities will fall below 15 percent west of the Laramie Range during
the afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ305-307-309.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for WYZ305-307-309.

NE...None.
&&

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...ADL
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
403 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

WYZ106-112-114-116-117-101015-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Sierra Madre Range-Snowy Range-South Laramie Range-
South Laramie Range Foothills-
403 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The combination of warm temperatures, gusty winds and low humidities
will promote rapid fire growth for lower elevations of the Snowy and
Sierra Madre mountains from late this morning through early evening.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Critical fire weather conditions will occur Sunday as a dry cold
front moves into southeast Wyoming. Fire Weather Watches are in
effect. West to northwest winds may gust as high as 50 to 55 mph
late Sunday night, mainly over the central and southern Laramie
Range.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

NEZ002-095-WYZ101-102-101015-
Dawes-North Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-
403 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska and east central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will develop.
A few storms may be strong with hail to the size of nickels and wind
gusts to 55 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated thunderstorms will develop after a cold frontal passage
Sunday night. Severe weather is not expected.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096-WYZ103>105-107>111-113-115-118-119-
101015-
Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
South Sioux-North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-East Platte County-Goshen County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Upper North Platte River Basin-
Laramie Valley-Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
403 AM MDT Sat Jun 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.