Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
122 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A plume of deep tropical moisture will continue to stream north
across the Commonwealth into early tonight bringing locally
heavy rain. A weak cold front will push east across Pennsylvania
later tonight and early Saturday, sweeping the moisture off the
Mid Atlantic Coast. High pressure building in will bring drier
but still humid weather and increasing sunshine throughout the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Focus for locally heavy rain continues through Central PA.
Rainfall readings were running almost twice what radar estimates
were indicating and so we changed to tropical mode on the radar.
We have had lots of reports of roads flooding with the more
intense rains. The ground is saturated and so almost all of the
rain immediately turns into runoff. Current large area of rain
from Blair and Center Counties on north and Northwest will
continue to move toward upstate NY. This will provide a break in
the action, however, some breaks in clouds to the south is
already helping to spark the development of more afternoon
showers and scattered thunderstorms.

This rain was being triggered and focused within a zone of
strong low-mid level FGEN, and impressive 925-850 mb Theta-E
convergence, within the Right Entrance region of a 75-85kt upper
level jet with its core extending from Lake Erie...NE to Ottawa
and Montreal, Canada. Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
most of the area overnight...with FF guidance remaining very low
given recent copious rains.

Showers/storms should wane and slide to the east tonight as the
trough to the west opens up a bit and we get more westerly flow
at the sfc and aloft following the passage of a weak cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PWATs returning to near normal values of 25-30mm for the
weekend within a weak ridge of sfc high pressure and generally
fair/dry conditions. Afternoon temperatures will be back into
the 80s with overnight lows from near 60 north to 70 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warmer temps, higher humidity and an increasing chance for
mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms returns for
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large area of rain now shifting north into the north-central
counties. Trend for the balance of the afternoon will be for
showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue streaming
northeastward.

HRRR and short range models continue to slowly shift the focus
of rain and storms east during the evening and overnight.

The hit-and-miss variety of the heavy rain cells and storms make
timing into the TAFs difficult. At this time, have covered with
TEMPO groups to account for conditions, which could swing rather
quickly from IFR to VFR and back again.

Dense areas of fog likely overnight central and western areas,
with rain continuing for the eastern airfields.

For Saturday, expecting widespread morning fog, and some
lingering rain in the east, with improvements to VFR in all
areas by later morning into early afternoon.

.Outlook...

Sat...Morning fog/low clouds central and west in the AM.
Lingering rain and IFR restrictions in the east. Becoming VFR.

Sun...Patchy AM fog possible, otherwise VFR.

Mon...Mainly VFR, with isolated PM TSRA impacts possible
West.

Tue...Mainly VFR, with scattered PM TSRA impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Watson
NEAR TERM...Watson/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Watson/Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Jung/Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
327 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

PAZ004>006-010-011-040730-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-
327 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-017>019-024>026-033>035-037-041-045-040730-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-
Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Southern Clinton-
327 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ027-028-036-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-040730-
Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
327 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1124 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JERSEY SHORE            41.20N  77.27W
08/03/2018  E1.67 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802079

JRB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
234 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

PAZ046-049-052-031900-
Southern Lycoming PA-Union PA-Northumberland PA-
234 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PARTS OF NORTHUMBERLAND AND UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a shower over Spruce Run
Reservoir, moving northeast at 25 mph. While no lightning has yet
been detected with this shower, some lighting may develop over the
next 30 minutes.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Lewisburg, Mifflinburg, Watsontown, Linntown, New Columbia,
Montandon, Allenwood, Vicksburg, Elimsport, Spruce Run Reservoir,
Forest Hill, Sand Bridge State Park, Delaware Run, West Milton,
Turbotville, McEwensville and Bucknell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 7674 4102 7677 4098 7680 4096 7687
      4090 7701 4096 7709 4110 7709 4114 7702
      4116 7691 4117 7673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 212DEG 20KT 4099 7699

Jung

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
332 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NWS STATE COLLEGE       40.83N  77.85W
08/03/2018  M3.27 INCH       CENTRE             PA   NWS OFFICE

            24-HOUR RAINFALL. SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802086

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

PAZ046-049-051-052-032015-
Southern Lycoming PA-Union PA-Northumberland PA-Montour PA-
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHUMBERLAND...
LYCOMING...MONTOUR...AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Spruce Run Reservoir, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Lewisburg, Mifflinburg, Muncy, Watsontown, Montgomery,
Linntown, New Columbia, Allenwood, Vicksburg, Spruce Run Reservoir,
Exchange, Forest Hill, Sand Bridge State Park, Delaware Run, West
Milton, Turbotville and McEwensville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 7663 4090 7702 4102 7710 4127 7683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 228DEG 20KT 4103 7701

Evanego