Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
422 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave will peak early this week, but hot and humid
weather will last through the 4th of July. A weakening cold
front over the Ohio Valley will slide into Western Pennsylvania
late this afternoon before dissipating tonight and early
Tuesday. A second stronger cold front will push southeast across
the Commonwealth Friday, likely accompanied by a round of
strong, gusty Thunderstorms. This front promises to deliver
a welcome change to cooler temperatures with lower humidity
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Oppressive to dangerous heat will continue late this afternoon
along with poor air quality. Expect max temps in the 90s over
all of the region except for the higher terrain of the
Alleghenies in northern and western PA.

The main difference today (compared to this past weekend's heat)
was the few to several deg F increase in surface dewpoints, and
a corresponding jump in PWATs by 0.5 to 1.0 inch across the
western half to two- thirds of the state. SFC dewpoints were in
the 70-75F range CWA wide.

A very weak cold front will be drifting SE from the Lower Great
lakes late today/tonight, with a preceding Lee Trough and
favorable llvl theta-e convergence developing between the route
219 and I-99/Rt220 corridors. We're seeing an increasing and
potentially serious Flash Flood threat along the east slopes of
the Laurel Highlands INVOF the city of Altoona and points just
to the SSW where radar estimates over the past few hours are
already around 3 inches.

This front and a light southerly flow ahead of it will help
push a surge in PWATS to over 2" this afternoon and evening.
Models also hint at some cooling of the very warm mid level
temps over about the western half of the region. These of course
have been acting as a potent lid to convection the last several
days. This suggests the best chance for some heat relief in the
form of scattered showers/storms that we have seen since about
the middle of last week.

Slightly stronger deep-layer shear across northern PA will
create a better chance for severe TSRA potential via wet
microbursts, while the most persistent and focused llvl theta-e
convergence will lead to the greatest chc for heavy rain and
Flash Flooding over our SW zones.

SPC has put a Marginal Risk out for most of the area with a
smaller slight risk area nested in over north-central PA. WPC
has focused their slight risk of Excessive rain across the
Laurels.

The large sfc based CAPE over 2000 j/kg could also support some
hail, but high melting levels will no doubt take their toll,
SPC places that risk at less than 10%.

High Res CAMs guidance, along with WPC ERO and SPC's DAY 1
Convective outlook points twds a rather high probability for
numerous SHRA/TSRA with isolated occurrences of heavy rain and
strong gusty, wet microburst winds as vertical shear will be
relatively weak, but precip loading of the tall updrafts - high.

Will maintain likely to categorical POPS near the Allegheny
Front and locations just to the east through this evening.

Rising heights aloft and the loss of heating will lead to the
convection fading late this evening. It will be another sultry
night with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Gardeners know their
tomatoes love the warm overnight lows, but they make for very
uncomfortable sleeping weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday will not be significantly different than today.

A heat Advisory will continue across the Central Ridge and
Valley region, while the recent upgrade to an Excessive Heat
Warning will remain for the Lower Susq Valley.

The ribbon of anomalously high PWATs is forecast to rotate over
the region keeping the chance for mainly PM scattered
convection in the forecast. Highs may be a tick or two lower
than today with a few more clouds and the showers, but the heat
wave will continue for much of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*Sweltering heat/humidity will gradually lose its grip through
 late week
*Cooler and less humid air scheduled to arrive this weekend

Pattern Overview: Anomalous closed upper level ridge centered
over the Northeast U.S. on Wednesday will retrograde westward
toward the Rockies by next weekend, allowing an upper trough
over southeast Canada to dip into New England. The upper trough
is forecast to amplify and send a cold front through the region
on Friday, breaking the heat wave and returning temperatures to
near average for early July. There is some question as to how
much upper ridging can rebound into early next week.

Weather threats/highlights: Anticipate isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms Wed-Thu. Most storms should
diminish prior to 4th of July fireworks shows. Max heat index
values peak in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the
mid to lower Susquehanna Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms
may accompany the cold front on Friday. Timing of the front and
extent of cloud cover will be key factors in determining severe
storm risk. Relief from the relentlessly hot/humid weather of
late June-early July will arrive this weekend as cooler and
less humid air sweeps southeast from Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An approaching weak cold frontal boundary will help to
accentuate broader scale lift this afternoon and tonight, before
dying out across west-central or NW PA later tonight.

For the 21Z TAF update will maintain VCTS or even tempo to
categorical TSRA at Central and Western PA Airfields -
KBFD...KJST...KAOO and KUNV.

A ribbon high moisture and instability will set up within this
corridor of TAF sites and lead to areas of MVFR to IFR cigs and
vsbys through 01Z (though isolated reductions in precip areas are
possible for an hour or two afterward.

The other issue will be some patchy dense fog again late
tonight/early Tuesday morning (similar to the past two morning
across northern PA), especially if we do get some rain later
today.

Given the extreme heat of recent days and more to come,
watch your density altitudes.

.Outlook...

Tue-Thu...Patchy AM fog possible. Isolated PM thunderstorm
impacts possible.

Fri...Frontal boundary may bring a line of SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Early July record highs for select sites...

				7/2 		7/3 		7/4

Harrisburg 		104(1966) 	107(1996) 	104(1966)

Williamsport 	99(1966) 	100(1966) 	100(1990)

Altoona 		97(1966) 	97(1966) 	97(1966)

Bradford 		90(1966) 	91(1966) 	91(1990)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ019-025>028-034-
035-045-046-049>053-056-058.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ036-057-
059-063>066.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ037-041-042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...La Corte/Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert
CLIMATE...Colbert

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

PAZ024-033-031900-
Cambria-Somerset-
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours are possible between 3pm and 11pm. Storms will be slow
moving and could produce localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ065-066-031900-
York-Lancaster-
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

Dangerous heat conditions with heat indices over 100 degrees are
possible Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ025>028-034-035-049>053-056-058-031900-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Schuylkill-
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours are possible between 3pm and 11pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Oppressive to locally dangerous heat conditions are possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-031900-
Warren-
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours are possible between 3pm and 11pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ019-045-046-031900-
Southern Centre-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph and heavy
downpours are possible between 3pm and 11pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Oppressive to locally dangerous heat conditions are possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ037-041-042-031900-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours are possible between 3pm and 11pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017-018-031900-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph and heavy
downpours are possible between 3pm and 11pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-057-059-063-064-031900-
Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours are possible between 3pm and 11pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

Oppressive to locally dangerous heat conditions are possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
425 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

PAZ037-022100-
Tioga PA-
425 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TIOGA COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Mansfield, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millerton, Tioga and Tioga Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4190 7691 4183 7706 4189 7717
      4200 7712 4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 223DEG 19KT 4189 7709

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
441 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

PAZ006-022100-
Potter PA-
441 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF POTTER COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

At 441 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
west of Cherry Springs State Park, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wharton, Coudersport, Denton Hill State Park, Cherry Springs State
Park, Lyman Run State Park, Austin, Sweden Valley and Ski Denton Ski
Area.

LAT...LON 4152 7806 4165 7811 4185 7795 4167 7768
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 221DEG 10KT 4165 7796

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
449 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

PAZ033-022115-
Somerset PA-
449 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOMERSET COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Meyersdale to near Friendsville. Movement
was north at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meyersdale, Ursina, Mount Davis, Rockwood, Confluence, Salisbury,
Garrett, Addison and Casselman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7941 3977 7938 3978 7939 3979 7938
      3978 7935 3980 7937 3982 7937 3985 7942
      3988 7940 3997 7904 3972 7902 3972 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 171DEG 5KT 3979 7909 3968 7936

Evanego