Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
542 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push southeast across the region later this
afternoon and evening, producing scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. The front will likely stall out in the vicinity
of southern Pa into early next week, as an upper level trough
lingers across the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch #75 issued for western and north-
 central PA until 9PM EDT.

Radar is relatively quiet as of early afternoon. However,
atmosphere is destabilizing and the threat for severe weather is
increasing. Already getting gusty winds away from storms in
Ohio, and the threat will spread east as the developing squall
line moves eastward. SPC is considering expanding the watch
into Central PA and SRN NY.

We are in a very moist airmass ahead of the cold front as
indicated by the SREF/GEFS PWAT anomalies. Once again today the
wind fields are impressive with bulk shear already over 50kt
over the entire area. Also once again, instability looks to be
less than overwhelming.

The latest deterministic HRRR shows a squall line moving quickly
SE between about 4 and 7PM, showing a rapid weakening trend
after 5PM.

The front and squall line will move through during the early
evening with the showers expected to have cleared the region by
midnight.

Cooler and drier air will allow for a much more comfortable
night for sleeping. Lows will range from the mid 40s north to
mid 50s SE. The humidity will also be noticeably lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The cold front is forecast to become nearly stationary just
south of the forecast area Saturday, with most of the area
enjoying a dry day. Showers will begin to creep back northward
during the second half of the day, but for now it looks like
best chance of showers before the day is over will be for the
Maryland border counties.

It will feel cool compared to recent days with highs only in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A southern stream trough will team with plume of above normal PW
and frontal wave to produce rain spreading SW to NE across
south-central PA Saturday Night into Sunday morning. Steadier
rain should taper to more showery conditions Sunday afternoon as
the upper level trough lifts northeast and shears out into New
England.

High confidence in dry weather Mon-Wed under influence of high
pressure and below normal PW airmass. Frost potential remains
confined to the northern tier/NW Alleghenies which does not
officially start the growing season until May 11th or May 21st.
Despite lower trending RH, fire wx risk is low due to light
winds and ongoing vegetation green-up.

The next frontal system is slated to arrive Thursday into Friday
with showers and thunderstorms. Near average temperatures should
trend warmer by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Organizing line of thunderstorms now moving through northwest
portions of Central Pennsylvania. In general, VFR conditions
will prevail during the evening, but will be punctuated by brief
reductions to MVFR/IFR with the passage of the line of storms.

Conditions will improve from west to east late afternoon into
this evening. HRRR still indicates that organized line will
weaken considerably as it moves into southeastern PA later
during the evening hours.

VFR expected Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR.

Sun...Chance of MVFR/showers PM.

Mon-Wed...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jung/La Corte

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
623 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042-045-046-052230-
Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Somerset-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
623 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004-005-025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066-052230-
Warren-McKean-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
623 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ049>053-052230-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
623 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
624 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLEARFIELD AIRPORT      41.05N  78.41W
05/04/2018  M54 MPH          CLEARFIELD         PA   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801741

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW KERSEY            41.34N  78.61W
05/04/2018                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES ON SOUTH KERSEY ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801742

TYBURSKI

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