Snow Squall Warning 3, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
755 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

It will be blustery and unseasonably cold weather to start the
weekend with lake effect snow showers expected over the
northwestern Pennsylvania snowbelt. Fair but chilly weather is
expected Sunday into Monday. A large storm will bring rain, snow
and travel disruptions to the area Monday night into Tuesday.
Cold air will be reinforced behind the early week system with
gusty winds adding to the unseasonal chill through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

An area of heavier snow showers/brief squalls will impact the
I-80 corridor across Clearfield/Centre/S. Clinton counties and
I-99 from northern Blair into Centre County through mid morning.
Webcams along I-80 show variable road conditions from wet to
snowy. We have been following the snow squalls with the season's
first snow squall warnings. Conditions will improve as the
squalls move east and we start to see temperatures rebound with
the rising sun.

We will have a blustery and cold day today with max
temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below normal for early November.
Highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s is about as cold as you can
get this time of year with forecast highs near record-low maxes.
Factor in a very gusty west wind and wind chills will be in the
teens and 20s during the afternoon. An early taste of winter
for sure.

A tight pressure gradient and mixing in the cold air will result
in gusty winds 30-40 mph across most of central PA. Coordinated
a wind advisory with PBZ/LWX for the southwest ridges with peak
gusts 40-50 mph range. Winds will subside tonight as high
pressure drifts to the south of PA.

Lake effect and orographic snow showers are expected from the
northwest snowbelt down along the Allegheny spine into the
Laurel Highlands. Initial west-southwest trajectory over Lake
Erie will keep the bulk of the lake effect accumulation along or
just east of the I-90 corridor from northern Erie County PA into
Chautauqua County NY. Boundary layer flow gets more favorable
(shifting to the west-northwest) for snow bands reaching the
northwest mtns later today. Blend of hires models supports 1 to
3 inches across northwest Warren County with locally higher
amounts possible. Scattered snow showers/flurries will be
across the central and southern Alleghenies with a spotty
coating-1" most likely on the ridges west of US-219.

A relatively cold night in store for this time of year with
lows in the 20s or -5 to -10 degrees below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lowering subsidence inversion and veering in the low level wind
profile will spell and end to the LES early Sunday. A cold but
fair/partly sunny day with max temps 10 to 15 degrees below
normal. It will stay dry and chilly with increasing clouds
Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

A longwave positively tilted trough evolving across the central
U.S. will spawn a strengthening low pressure system that will
quickly move northeast from the Gulf coast to near the VA coast
by the end of the period. The developing large scale storm will
gather plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and bring
widespread precipitation to central PA in the form of soaking rain
and accumulating snow Monday night into Tuesday. Blend of
NBM/WPC snowfall paints a swath of 1-3 inches across the
northern 1/3 of the CWA in the 00-12Z Tuesday window. The
highest confidence for snow accumulation is north of I-80. The
snow would coincide with the Tuesday morning commute so
anticipate some slippery roads and travel disruptions.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the low continues to deepen as it moves into New England,
expect precipitation to continue through Tuesday afternoon with
snow most likely across the higher elevations from the Laurel
Highlands into the north-central Alleghenies (mainly west of
I-99 and north of I-80). Additional accumulations are likely
over these areas.

It will turn wind and colder Tuesday night into Wednesday with
lake effect/orographic snow showers and perhaps some squalls.
Wind gusts 30+ mph are likely in the tight gradient behind the
departing storm. Additional lake effect accumulations are likely
into Wednesday. Wednesday looks very similar to today (11/10)
and even colder Wednesday night with lows in the teens to mid
20s.

High pressure will provide improving conditions into late week
with temps moderating a bit on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR at BFD and UNV from 11Z through 15Z with periods of IFR
cigs and vsbys at times for BFD, UNV and FIG. Snow bands heavy
to bring vsbys to 1/4SM or less at times. Expect these post
frontal snow bands to continue to move through central PA early
this morning.

Once the front gets eastward the snow bands will weaken if not
cease. However the gusty winds will continue through the day.
So expect westerly winds with gusts upwards of 30 kts possible
through the day. These winds will shift to the northwest later
in the day which will bring snow showers through the NW.
 After 21Z expect possible MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys at BFD and
JST from these showers.

.Outlook...

Sun...MVFR cigs/lingering snow showers northwest airspace improving
late.

Mon-Tue...VFR early becoming MVFR/IFR with widespread rain
developing Monday continuing into Tue. Some snow possible NW.

Wed...Post frontal flow with regular IFR/MVFR cigs and SCT SHSN NW
and mainly VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
253 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

PAZ026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-110800-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
253 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph today will blow around unsecured
property and may result in minor wind damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ024-025-033-034-110800-
Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-
253 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-110800-
Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-
253 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph today will blow around unsecured
property and may result in minor wind damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Accumulating snow is likely Monday night into Tuesday especially
north of Interstate 80. Be prepared for hazardous travel conditions
and longer commute times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004-005-110800-
Warren-McKean-
253 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Lake effect snow and gusty winds will impact the area through
tonight. 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation is expected with locally
higher amounts possible in the snowbelt areas along and north of
Route 6. Be prepared for hazardous travel, reduced visibility and
longer travel times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Accumulating snow is likely Monday night into Tuesday. Be prepared
for hazardous travel conditions and longer commute times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
537 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

PAZ012-017>019-024>026-045-101230-
Northern Centre PA-Southern Clinton PA-Northern Clinton PA-
Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-Southern Centre PA-
537 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRE...SOUTHERN
CLINTON...NORTHERN CLINTON...CLEARFIELD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA...
HUNTINGDON...AND SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A snow squall accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH which
can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 536 AM EST, a snow squall was along a line
extending from near Woodland to near Northern Cambria and moving east
at 35 MPH.

THIS SQUALL WILL BE NEAR...
  Clearfield, Lecontes Mills and Woodland around 540 AM EST.
  North Philipsburg, Karthaus and Philipsburg around 550 AM EST.
  Prince Gallitzin State Park and Pine Glen around 600 AM EST.
  Moshannon and Black Moshannon State Park around 605 AM EST.
  Blandburg, Snow Shoe and Clarence around 610 AM EST.
  Julian around 615 AM EST.

For those driving on Interstate 80, this includes areas between the
Dubois and Loganton exits, specifically from mile markers 97 to 178.

This includes Interstate 99 from mile markers 40 to 85.

SAFETY INFO...
Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this squall.
Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads are likely to
lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until this squall passes
your location.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 7880 4114 7880 4120 7876 4121 7731
      4063 7776 4059 7781 4055 7784 4060 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 283DEG 30KT 4104 7833 4071 7880

Ceru

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
705 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

PAZ027-049-050-101315-
Mifflin-Union-Snyder-
705 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...Snow squalls early this morning...

Snow squalls accompanied by winds of up to 30 mph will impact
portions of Mifflin, Union and Snyder Counties through 8 AM.
Expect rapid loss in visibility and slippery road conditions.

MS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
740 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

PAZ005-006-010>012-017-037-041-101345-
McKean PA-Potter PA-Northern Clinton PA-Cameron PA-Clearfield PA-
Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-Elk PA-
740 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MCKEAN...POTTER...NORTHERN
CLINTON...CAMERON...CLEARFIELD...NORTHERN LYCOMING...TIOGA...AND ELK
COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A snow squall accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH which
can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 740 AM EST, a snow squall was along a line
extending from Lyman Run State Park to near Westport and moving east
at 45 MPH.

THIS SQUALL WILL BE NEAR...
  Galeton, Glen Union and Hyner around 750 AM EST.
  Leetonia around 800 AM EST.
  Waterville around 805 AM EST.

SAFETY INFO...
Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this squall.
Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads are likely to
lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until this squall passes
your location.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4175 7744 4122 7731 4122 7790 4125 7790
      4122 7794 4121 7871 4123 7871 4123 7874
      4126 7874 4132 7885 4141 7878 4176 7833
TIME...MOT...LOC 1240Z 273DEG 39KT 4172 7779 4125 7777

Ceru