Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS State College, PA

375 
WWUS51 KCTP 171942
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
342 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

PAC055-171951-
/O.EXP.KCTP.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-180917T1945Z/
Franklin PA-
342 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3972 7777 4010 7768 4001 7750 3998 7745
      3995 7747 3992 7747 3972 7753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 193DEG 36KT 4013 7753 

$$

Steinbugl

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
157 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will bring a renewed flood risk to
central Pennsylvania later today into Tuesday. Dry weather is
expected Wednesday into Thursday before the next opportunity
for rain arrives late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shield of rain associated with the remnants of Florence
continues to lift northward into the Laurel Highlands and
southern Alleghenies this morning. Deep southerly flow of
tropical air along with accelerating northeast track of
Florence will cause rain to spread northeast across the area,
reaching the northern tier by late afternoon.

As surface warm front pivots northward, expect stratiform rain
to transition to more convective elements across south-central
PA this afternoon. A low cape/high shear environment will spread
north from VA/MD and bring the potential for a brief tornado
over the far southern tier counties.

The main threat remains flooding, given combination of extremely
wet antecedent conditions/high streamflows with widespread moderate
to locally heavy rain. Latest guidance maintains a heavy rainfall
signal through western-central PA, though based on the latest
model runs, the increased forward speed of Florence will help
cap rainfall totals outside of well trained/convective activity.
The hires models seem to focus this area over south-central PA
into the Lower Susq. Valley. Blended QPF amounts are between
1-2", though given the impressive deep-layer moisture
parameters, localized amounts of 3+ inches are possible. This
along with relatively low FFG is resulting in fairly high (70+
percent) probabilities of QPF>FFG exceedance in the Moderate
Risk area per the HREF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
CAMS indicate steadiest stratiform rainfall will shift toward
the NY border tonight, while scattered heavy downpours and
possible tsra appear more likely elsewhere. WPC storm total qpf
ranges from 1-2 inches over the forecast area, which runs close
to FFG/FFH guidance from the marfc. However, given anomalous
pwats and instability noted in the models, believe
significantly higher spots amounts are likely, similar to the
2-4 inch max amounts in the HREFV2.

Will also have to continue to monitor the severe weather threat
tonight over the southern tier counties, where a combination of
instability and shear south of surface low track could support
supercells and even a possible tornado.

Improving conditions will overspread the region from west to
east Tuesday morning, as the surface low tracks passes east of
the state. By early afternoon, the bulk of model guidance have
pushed the low east of Pa. However, the back edge of the showers
will likely lag by a few hours, due to passage of mid level
shortwave. Brightening skies by afternoon should help push
temperatures well into the 70s to near 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model soundings indicate low level moisture trapped beneath
subsidence inversion will produce fairly extensive stratus over
the Allegheny Plateau. Downsloping subsidence should result in
clearing skies Tue night across eastern Pa.

All med range guidance is showing upper level ridging building
into the region late next week, supporting a dry and warm
forecast Wednesday and Thursday. A dying cold front will likely
approach or move into the area by Friday, accompanied by a
chance of showers. The bulk of model guidance stalls this front
out just south of the Mason Dixon Line next weekend, so will
maintain the chance of showers Saturday/Sunday, mainly over the
southern counties.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR ceilings have pushed into most all locations as rain moves
from south to north across the area this afternoon. A band of
moderate to heavy rain extends east west across the central
mountains. As it moves north, moderate to heavy rain will affect
KUNV, KIPT and ultimately KBFD.

A 30-40KT SE LLJet slides through later this afternoon bringing
a period of LLWS.

Plenty of low level moisture will bring IFR ceilings and
visibilities overnight even though the rain showers will become
more scattered.

High pressure will build into the region Wednesday and
Thursday. MVFR ceiling reductions will be likely Tue night over
the western/northern higher terrain as flow turns to the NW, but
otherwise conditions midweek will be mainly VFR.

.Outlook...

Tue...Widespread reductions in rain early, then improving
conditions.

Wed-Thu...Overnight cig reductions north/west. Morning fog
poss. Otherwise no sig wx.

Fri...Fair early. SHRA/TSRA aftn/eve. CFROPA late.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The latest guidance from OHRFC and MARFC keep river points
below flood stage. Several points are forecast to exceed action
or caution stages. Will need to monitor rainfall very closely
with streams already running very high.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for PAZ005-006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...RXR/Tyburski
HYDROLOGY...Ross

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
1209 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063-066-181615-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Lancaster-
1209 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-181615-
Warren-
1209 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ064-065-181615-
Adams-York-
1209 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is a very low risk for a brief tornado this afternoon into
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

MS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
249 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

PAZ036-171930-
Franklin PA-
249 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PARTS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM EDT...

At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a gusty shower over Municipal
Stadium, moving north at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

This shower will be near...
  Greencastle around 305 PM EDT.
  Marion around 315 PM EDT.
  Chambersburg, St. Thomas and Guilford around 325 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this shower include Williamson, Upton,
State Line, Quincy and Penn State Mont Alto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7786 4001 7792 4001 7750 3999 7748
      3972 7746
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 176DEG 31KT 3962 7771

MC/MS