Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS State College, PA

099 
WWUS51 KCTP 211841
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
241 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2018

PAC111-211915-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-180821T1915Z/
Somerset PA-
241 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTY...

At 241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Berlin, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Somerset County, including the following locations...
Wellersburg, Salisbury, Callimont, New Baltimore, Garrett, Indian
Lake and Shanksville.

This includes The Pennsylvania Turnpike from mile markers 118 to 130.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7931 4015 7872 4014 7871 4008 7874
      4006 7876 3983 7875 3976 7879 3972 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 224DEG 33KT 3992 7900 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Tyburski

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1039 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift northeast across the Lower Great Lakes
this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move east of
central Pennsylvania by Wednesday morning. This will bring an
end to the wet conditions that we have seen in recent weeks.
Cooler and less humid air will move into the area on Wednesday,
as high pressure moves eastward and and prevails for the rest of
the work week. While temperatures will warm to above normal
levels by early next week, showers and storms will be more
scattered in nature than what we have seen in recent weeks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
widespread showers across the NW and showers are also breaking
up as they get into the NErn counties. A fast-moving line of
showers with embedded thunder from KERI to KJST is rolling
east/northeast and should continue to move deeper into the CWA.
The thunder is isolated but still worth a mention over the NW.

Stability is still the word for the time-being. Cloud deck is a
little higher than earlier, so some mixing is occurring in the
blyr. Sunshine is busting through over SWrn PA behind that first
volley of organized convection. Wind picking up as low pressure
over central lower MI gets closer. Winds aloft remain
moderately strong. Forecast continues to mention T+ with
gusty/damaging wind the main threat. However, the threat for
thunder and severe wx tapers off in the NE counties. Forecast
remains highly consistent/continuous. Threat for SVR does still
include a small chc of tornadoes in the W and perhaps in the far
S. The highest threat would be across the NW where the shear is
moderate with 35-40kts of bulk/effective shear expected later
aftn. EHI does near/exceed 1 unit in the west as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Sever threat inches into the central mtns and mid Susq, but T
should diminish as it tries to get deeper into the more stable
air over the NE. CAPE and T chc falls off after sunset in the W
but remains moderate for the SE through about midnight. Then
the first front of drier air pushes through. The actual cold
front seems to lag behind a little, but should be off to our
east before/around sunrise Wed. Thus, isold shra/tsra poss
overnight.

Wed looks unstable as colder air aloft moves in and we get some
mixing. Likely pops over the NW half, with 30-40s over the rest
of the area. Should be a post-frontal day with the sky almost
filled over most of the area. Showers will be brief as they will
be cellular and moving along quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
It dries out Wed PM as high pressure will float in for a few
days. Lower humidity will allow for comfortable and pleasant
days with plenty of sunshine followed by mainly clear and
relatively cool nights with valley fog. The next front, which
could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back into the
area, approaches on Saturday.

Regardless of the outcome, the weekend does not look like a
wash out and will probably be mainly dry in most areas.

Temperatures and humidity levels will start to creep upward with
highs climbing back above average by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Have added VCTS to BFD for the next hr or so as the current line
of convection over wrn PA is only an hour away and is still
sparking. The rest of the area will wait for another 3-5 hours
to see any thunder threat. Widespread IFR continues even at BFD
with the best conditions/highest cig out the window thanks to
downslope off Tussey and Nittany mountains. The wind is picking
up as the low pressure moves into LH. All is well, but may have
to delay improvements to MVFR another few hours in a few spots.

Prev...
Latest showers stemming from moist flow out ahead of the
approaching system continues to affect UNV and BFD. IFR cigs
continue at BFD, JST and UNV with MVFR elsewhere. Expect these
cigs and vsbys to continue through at least 14Z. Low stratus
will continue this morning as SREF/HREF prob charts and model
soundings point toward.

The cold air trapped out ahead of the warm front will keep the
stratus over the region and will make mixing out the inversion
difficult. Latest SREF/HRRR models show this will take well
through the morning and in the eastern TAF sites, perhaps into
early afternoon. Between 14Z to 18Z expect lingering stratus and
southeast flow over the eastern half of the state, while a
return to predominantly VFR conditions is likely over the
western part of the state.

As the warm front will lift northeast into the region this
afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms possible after 19Z.
This could bring IFR cigs and vsbys. MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys
could return tonight into tomorrow morning with low stratus.

.Outlook...

Wed...AM low cigs possible KBFD/KJST.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Patchy AM fog possible.

Sat...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Martin
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin
LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin/Tyburski
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Ceru

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
444 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063-064-220930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry-Cumberland-
Adams-
444 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and heavy
downpours are possible this afternoon and evening. The heavy rain may
result in areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066-220930-
Sullivan-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
York-Lancaster-
444 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours are possible this afternoon and evening. The heavy rain may
result in areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Martin