Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS State College, PA

310 
WWUS51 KCTP 172002
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
402 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018

PAC041-055-172045-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180817T2045Z/
Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
402 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND WEST CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

At 402 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Upper
Strasburg, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Shippensburg, Upper Strasburg, Roxbury, Orrstown and Shippensburg
University.

This includes The Pennsylvania Turnpike from mile markers 198 to 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4002 7775 4010 7775 4021 7761 4019 7760
      4021 7757 4021 7756 4008 7746 3998 7759
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 248DEG 21KT 4004 7766 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Dangelo

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
301 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will push into the area later today and
tonight. An upper-level disturbance will linger on Saturday
and keep the region unsettled.

Slightly cooler conditions and more comfortable humidity will move
in for the second half of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PWATs between 1.5 and 2.0" mark the very moist airmass firmly in
place over the area. SPC RAP shows CAPEs already in excess of
1000J over the area with the prospects of 2000-3000J being in
place by mid to late afternoon over central and eastern areas.
Deep layer shear is not expected to be terribly strong which
will be a limiting factor for storm organization. SPC has the
entire area under a Marginal risk, with the far NE in a Slight
Risk. The biggest threat will be for a strong damaging wind
gust. With the recent very heavy rains leaving wet ground, trees
could be toppled more easily with lesser gusts. The potential
for flooding remains elevated also due to the recent wet
conditions.

Latest HRRR shows convection blossoming in the lee-side trough
by mid afternoon with the hints of a squall line marching
through the eastern portion of the forecast area through late
afternoon.

The potential for strong to severe storms and flooding of small
streams and poor drainage areas will be lower across the
Western Mountains of the state today, as FFG values are quite a
bit higher relative to the Susq Valley and points east.

Showers will remain a threat well into the overnight as the
parent upper shortwave slowly works it way across the region.
What is apparent is that this soupy airmass isn't going
anywhere soon. Lows will be in the muggy 60s to lower 70s
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The slow moving upper trough will be crossing the region
Saturday. Blended MOS POPs yield high chance to low likely
values for yet another day of scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Highs will rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s, which will be near
to slightly below normal for a change.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Better day of weekend will be Sunday as area is a bit more
stable, but will not be pop free, as some showers and a
thunderstorm are possible during the afternoon hours. Drier
weather on Monday before southerly flow increases with a return
to more showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. A real cold frontal
passage is expected, likely on Wednesday, which will bring drier
air and even some lows into the 50s over a large area for the
first time in a long time. Before the frontal passage look for
an increase in thunderstorms. The end of the week will be drier
with temperatures at or a few degrees below average. Longer term
it looks like ridging builds back in for warmer weather by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Radar is starting to show convection developing over the south-
central mountains. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
to continue to blossom and become more numerous this afternoon
as a cold front approaches the region.

Most airfields will remain VFR except where affected by the
showers/thunderstorms. A more general deterioration to MVFR/IFR
will occur overnight with some fog and stratus forming in the
humid airmass.

Improvement Saturday will be slow, with the most likely areas to
become VFR being our eastern SUSQ Valley terminals, but not
until late morning into the afternoon.

.Outlook...

Sat...Still a chance of showers and storms, mainly across the
south early on in the day.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions developing with showers and
thunderstorms. Improving later Wed.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...La Corte

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
346 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

PAZ041-182000-
Northern Lycoming-
346 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy downpours will
also pose a risk of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-037-182000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Tioga-
346 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy downpours will
also pose a risk of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ042-046-049>052-182000-
Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
346 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy downpours will
also pose a risk of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ019-025>028-033>036-045-056-057-059-063>066-182000-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-
Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
346 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy downpours will
also pose a risk of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ053-058-182000-
Columbia-Schuylkill-
346 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or
greater, frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rain
are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy downpours
will also pose a risk of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
335 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018

PAZ036-172000-
Franklin PA-
335 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Fannettsburg, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and dime size hail are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Willow Hill around 345 PM EDT.
  Upper Strasburg around 350 PM EDT.
  Shippensburg and Roxbury around 400 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Orrstown and
Shippensburg University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 7778 4000 7789 4006 7787 4009 7785
      4023 7765 4022 7764 4023 7761 4021 7761
      4018 7762 4013 7759 4012 7756 4010 7756
      4009 7754 4002 7750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 244DEG 22KT 4003 7782

Dangelo