Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS State College, PA

357 
WWUS51 KCTP 280054
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
854 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

PAC033-280103-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180428T0100Z/
Clearfield PA-
854 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CLEARFIELD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved east 
and out of the warned area, therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

LAT...LON 4093 7771 4087 7805 4093 7810 4095 7810
      4096 7808 4097 7809 4098 7809 4110 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 256DEG 28KT 4095 7790 

$$

PAC027-280100-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180428T0100Z/
Centre PA-
854 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL CENTRE COUNTY...

At 853 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Snow Shoe,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Bellefonte, Milesburg, Black Moshannon State Park, Snow Shoe,
Clarence and Unionville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4093 7771 4087 7805 4093 7810 4095 7810
      4096 7808 4097 7809 4098 7809 4110 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 256DEG 28KT 4095 7790 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lambert

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
754 PM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northward along the Mid Atlantic coast
this morning, then into New England late today. A cold front
will push through Pennsylvania on Saturday. An upper low will
pivot over the area Sunday, then lift out next week as an
anomalous upper level ridge builds along the east coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Ltg on the decrease as it moves deeper into central PA, most
likely losing some heating/instability help. Dewpoints so low -
but were even lower (m30s) back over OH when storms formed
there. The first few of these current showers/storms started
over PBZ. Have mentions of isolated TS in the grids, but it
looks worse on the maps than it really is going to be. Showers
will be most numerous - and nearly constant over the NW 3 or so
counties this evening.

Prev...
Another trough is streaming in from the west. This will cause
the brief clearing skies to cloud up once again. Have trended
temperatures slightly warmer. Given the weak instability with
this trough and incoming showers, there should be isolated
thunderstorms through the central and NW mtns late this
afternoon through the early evening hours. That trough will then
been followed by a cold front that will move through overnight
into Saturday morning. Have adjusted pops accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Modest instability, combined with passage of shortwave, should produce
scattered showers this evening, mainly over the northwest
portion of the forecast area. Will maintain mention of possible
thunder over the northwest counties, where HREFV2 is showing
some minimal CAPE.

For most of the area, expect dry conditions late tonight, as
large scale subsidence arrives in wake of shortwave. However,
will reintroduce the chance of showers toward dawn over
Warren/Mckean counties in association with approaching cold
front.

Upper low and associated cold front will push into the area
Saturday, likely accompanied by a round or two of showers in
most spots. There could even be enough diurnal heating/destabilization
for a late day tsra with fropa over the southeast counties.

Partly sunny skies ahead of the front should push temps into the
60s over the eastern half of the forecast area, while reading
max out in the 50s over the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All med range guidance indicating upper low will pivot over
central Pa Sunday. Low level instability caused by cold temps
aloft will result in plenty of stratocumulus, especially over
the northern/western mountains. Although the lake/850mb temp
difference is not quite large enough for lake effect, do expect
some orographic snow showers across the Alleghenies Sat night
into Sunday, with a possible coating in some spots early Sunday
morning.

Model 850mb temps of around -4C indicate max temps Sunday will
be no better than the low 40s over the northwest mountains and
the low to mid 50s across the Susq Valley. Adding to the chill
will be a gusty northwest wind. Bufkit soundings support
frequent gusts in the 20-25kt range during the afternoon.

A brighter, milder day is expected Monday, as upper low shifts
into New England. However, the real warm up will occur during
mid week, as upper low lifts out and is replaced by anomalous
upper level ridging along the east coast. 8h temps from med
range guidance surge to near 15C by Thursday, which could
support max temps in the low to mid 80s in valley locations.

NAEFS and ECENS showing a quasi-stationary frontal boundary not
too far north of Pa the second half of the week, so will maintain
at least a chance of a shower/tstorm Wed/Thu, mainly near the NY
border.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is dominant as central PA is currently in between systems
this afternoon. MVFR is at LNS and THV though this will break
down as another trough moves in late afternoon. MVFR cigs are
possible late this afternoon at BFD and JST with VCTS possible
at BFD, though given the isolated nature of any storms this
evening have left them out of the TAFS. As the cold front
approaches this evening have dropped cigs and vsbys west to east
overnight into tomorrow. Light showers will accompany the front
tonight into tomorrow. Restrictions will slowly improve late
tomorrow after frontal passage.

Outlook...

Sat...Showers, especially early.

Sun...Breezy. AM low cigs/flurries possible W Mtns.

Mon...No sig wx expected. Breezy early.

Tue...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner
AVIATION...Ceru/RXR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
619 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-281030-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
619 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
811 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

PAZ017>019-024>026-280115-
Northern Centre PA-Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
Southern Centre PA-
811 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CLEARFIELD...
HUNTINGDON...CENTRE...BLAIR...AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
EDT...

At 808 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a broken line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 7 miles north of Lecontes Mills to near
Woodland to near Houtzdale to near Prince Gallitzin State Park to
Cresson.

Movement was east at 30 mph.

Westerly wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Lecontes Mills and Woodland around 815 PM EDT.
  Osceola Mills and Sandy Ridge around 825 PM EDT.
  Altoona, South Philipsburg and Chester Hill around 830 PM EDT.
  Tyrone, Pine Glen and Moshannon around 835 PM EDT.
  Bald Eagle around 840 PM EDT.
  Black Moshannon State Park, Sinking Valley and Warriors Mark
  around 845 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include West Decatur,
Tunnelhill, Ramey, Spring Hill and Cassandra.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 7858 4099 7837 4123 7833 4122 7810
      4117 7806 4114 7801 4118 7797 4121 7797
      4121 7794 4125 7790 4118 7790 4118 7782
      4110 7773 4045 7807 4037 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 251DEG 28KT 4119 7827 4101 7830 4082 7841 4065
7848 4046 7857

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
820 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

PAZ026>028-280045-
Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-
820 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...
AND JUNIATA COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 820 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Raystown Dam, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Huntingdon, Yeagertown, Raystown Dam, Juniata Terrace,
Strodes Mills, Blacklog, Highland Park, Belleville, Rockhill Furnace,
Mount Union, Allensville, Burnham, Alfarata, Waterfall, Saltillo,
Shade Gap, Mapleton, Atkinson Mills and Shirleysburg.

LAT...LON 4009 7790 4011 7794 4013 7808 4018 7815
      4045 7807 4061 7798 4067 7738 4023 7774
      4020 7778 4008 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 260DEG 31KT 4036 7798

Dangelo