River Flood Warning 75, NWS State College, PA

691 
WGUS81 KCTP 221455
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
955 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following creeks in 
Pennsylvania...

  Aughwick Creek At Shirleysburg
  Penns Creek Near Penns Creek

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued later today.

&&

PAC061-230200-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-181223T0200Z/
/SLYP1.1.ER.181222T1315Z.181222T1800Z.181222T2000Z.NO/
955 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Aughwick Creek At Shirleysburg.
* At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 10.0 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The creek is forecast to crest just over 10 feet early this 
  afternoon. The creek will fall below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* At 10.0 feet...Aughwick Creek at Shirleysburg exceeds its banks. 
  Several homes are affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7789 4036 7782 4030 7783 4023 7788
      4025 7795 4032 7791             

$$

PAC109-119-230200-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-181223T0200Z/
/PNCP1.1.ER.181222T1022Z.181222T1600Z.181222T2000Z.NO/
955 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Penns Creek Near Penns Creek.
* At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 8.2 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The creek will crest near 8.3 feet late this morning. The creek 
  will fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* At 8.0 feet...The left, or north bank overflows downstream of the 
  Route 104 bridge. A campground is affected. A number of secondary 
  roads in the Penns Creek drainage are affected by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7712 4089 7705 4089 7698 4086 7698
      4085 7706 4086 7711             

$$

CJE

802 
WGUS81 KCTP 221703
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
1203 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following creek in 
Pennsylvania...

  Aughwick Creek At Shirleysburg

...The Flood Warning continues for the following creek in 
Pennsylvania...

  Penns Creek Near Penns Creek

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued later today.

&&

PAC109-119-230200-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-181223T0200Z/
/PNCP1.1.ER.181222T1022Z.181222T1545Z.181222T2000Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Penns Creek Near Penns Creek.
* At 11 AM Saturday the stage was 8.3 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The creek will continue falling to below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* At 8.0 feet...The left, or north bank overflows downstream of the 
  Route 104 bridge. A campground is affected. A number of secondary 
  roads in the Penns Creek drainage are affected by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7712 4089 7705 4089 7698 4086 7698
      4085 7706 4086 7711             

$$

PAC061-221733-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-181223T0200Z/
/SLYP1.1.ER.181222T1315Z.181222T1315Z.181222T1315Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Aughwick Creek At Shirleysburg.
* At 11 AM Saturday the stage was 9.9 feet and falling.
* The creek fell below flood stage at 8 AM Saturday.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* The creek will continue falling to 6.7 feet by Monday morning.
* At 10.0 feet...Aughwick Creek at Shirleysburg exceeds its banks. 
  Several homes are affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7789 4036 7782 4030 7783 4023 7788
      4025 7795 4032 7791             

$$

CJE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
502 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A gusty northwest flow of cooler air will move in behind our
departing storm system today. A weak Alberta Clipper will
affect the region Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure should
bring mainly fair weather for Christmas Day into the middle of
the week before a new storms system moves our way for Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Laurels and
McKean County where occasional snow showers continue in the
wake of the departing storm. Accumulating snowfall should be
ending over the NW this morning, but may linger into early
afternoon in the Laurels.

The wind will be gusty out of the WNW today, reaching 35-40 mph
at times, especially over the ridges.

Highs today in the 30s to lower 40s will be a few deg either
side of normal.

Clouds and perhaps some flurries will linger of western areas
overnight, but it should be mainly fair as weak high pressure
builds off to our south. Lows in the 20s will actually be a bit
above seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

Our best chance at a White Christmas appears to be linked to a
fast moving low amplitude shortwave that will be moving through
the region Sunday afternoon into the overnight. It will be pretty
moisture starved and the models show the usual pattern of the
QPF favoring western higher elevations, and tapering down
rapidly as we move into central and especially eastern portions
of the CWA. But a coating to an inch from central areas west
would be welcome by most given the holiday timing, though travel
issues will need to be monitored. Confidence at this point is
low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Monday-Christmas Eve will feature a chilly WNW wind once again
behind the weak clipper system. Snow showers over the usual
western and northern higher elevations will be diminishing as we
move into Monday night, leaving Christmas day chilly but fair
with a mix of sun and clouds.

Models now agree we should remain dry through Wednesday, with
timing differences arising by Thursday centered on when we start
to see the effects of a developing warm advection pattern with a
storm forecast to move out of the front range of the Rockies. I
used a model blend of POPs for the end of the extended with
mainly rain being the precip type of choice.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow mixing with the rain on the western edge of the precipitation
band. However, not real cold behind the band and the rain and
snow ends shortly after the snow starts mixing in.

06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Low pressure will lift north of Pennsylvania this evening, as a
trailing cold front works east across the region. Upsloping
northwest flow will continue to produce ifr/lifr cigs and light
snow across the high terrain of the Alleghenies this evening
from KBFD south through KJST. Further east, expect predominantly
mvfr conditions late this evening, as band of rain moves across
the area.

Expect diminishing precipitation and rising cigs late tonight,
as drier air flows in behind the cold front. However, the entire
area will experience increasingly gusty northwest winds
overnight. Latest HRRR supports frequent gusts between 20-30kts
late tonight, with the highest gusts across the southwest half
of the state.

Residual moisture ascending the Appalachians is likely to
produce lingering mvfr stratocu Saturday from KBFD south through
KJST. Further east, downsloping flow should yield predominantly
vfr conditions. A tight pressure gradient behind departing
storm system will result in gusty west-northwest winds
throughout the day. Model soundings indicate frequent gusts of
25-30kts are likely with diminishing winds after sunset.

.Outlook...

Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns. Evening light snow
possible, mainly northern/western Pa.

Mon...AM snow showers/vis reductions possible NW Mtns.

Tue...Evening light snow possible, mainly W Mtns.

Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Watching several river points early today. Some spots saw
upwards of 2 inches of rain for the event.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature was set at Williamsport yesterday.

The high temperature of 64 degrees broke the old record of
60 degrees set in 1895.

In addition, the 1.97 inches of rainfall in Williamsport
yesterday was a record for the date. The old record was
1.32 inches set in 1905.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ005-024-
033.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
104 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

PAZ004-006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-230615-
Warren-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
104 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ005-024-033-230615-
McKean-Cambria-Somerset-
104 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.