River Flood Warning 60, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
741 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Gordon will move into
southern Ontario today, then down the ST. Lawrence River valley
tonight and Tuesday. The trailing cold front will move through
the region tonight. High pressure will follow for mid week.

There is the potential for the region to be impacted by
Hurricane Florence by the end of the week or next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

The surface low associated with the remnants of Gordon are over
central OH as of 2AM, and will continue to slide off to the NE.
The large and persistent deformation zone that has been
responsible for rain falling since Saturday will finally begin
to slide north today as the upper shortwave shears out through
the lower lakes.

Radar shows light to moderate rain across all but the far SE
part of the forecast area. Models are consistent in bringing
another slug of MDT-HVY rain up through the north central
Mountains this morning as the core of the LLJ surges up and
through the region. Question remains if any kind of convective
contribution can be made to the rain totals as a region of
strong forcing aloft moves through. There are indications that
the atmosphere will become inertially unstable creating the
potential for some elevated instability.

The surface low will be moving into the lower lakes by late day
with an occlusion entering the western part of the state. At
this point, if the warm front can move into the forecast area,
it will be over the far SE later today and this evening as the
occlusion begins to slide into the CWA. This will create the
potential for some afternoon thunder with brightening skies and
increasing instability. SPC has a Marginal Risk for this area
which looks reasonable given the potential shear in vicinity of
advancing warm front and potential instability.

Models agree that the front takes its time overnight, and may
still be over the Susq Valley early Tuesday morning.

Flooding is ongoing across the much of the southern third of
central PA. Still expecting another 1-2 inches to fall through
midday today, with a bit more possible over the central and
northwest mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

High pressure will begin to build in for Tuesday. Though we may
start off rather gray and damp, the afternoon promises to be
brighter and certainly warmer than we have been for a couple of
days.

Heights aloft will begin to rebound as the ridge off the east
coast begins to nose westward, but a small chance for a stray
shower will remain in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

After being mainly dry early, sprawling high pressure off to our
north promises to create a persistent easterly maritime flow of
moist air for mid week onward. I used a blend of MOS pops which
leads to a daily mention of showers or thunderstorms.

The track of Florence will play a role in how far north
significant rains will fall.

The strength of the upper ridge will be all important in how
far west Florence will go. With the wet summer we have had, any
additional heavy rains coming out of the tropics will not be a
welcome thing.

Latest guidance has Florence going ashore near Wilmington NC
Thursday evening before slowing down as it moves inland. It
remains to be seen how much of a direct influence this will have
locally, or if some sort of frontal interaction with the
tropical moisture can develop north of the storm. All eyes will
certainly be on this potentially very dangerous hurricane.

Temperatures will begin to rebound by the Tuesday through
Thursday timeframe. As mentioned above, with the influence of
Florence so uncertain, the forecast for the end of the period is
a rather bland mention for small chances of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z TAFS sent.

Still some bands of moderate to heavy rain to move across yet.

CIGS will be mainly IFR and MVFR today into tonight.

Visibilities not bad. Southeast areas have the lowest values for
the most part when I came in at Midnight.

The remnants of tropical storm Gordon moving northeast across
the lower Great Lakes today will bring widespread rain and low
cigs to the area.

Strong SE jet will generate LLWS with speeds of 30-50kts at
2kft early today.

.Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible. Isold PM tsra impacts
possible southeast Pa.

Wed...Patchy AM fog possible northwest Pa. Isold PM tsra
impacts possible southeast Pa.

Thu-Fri...Patchy AM fog possible. Isold PM tsra impacts
possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Long duration rain event will bring significant rises on area
streams/rivers filling them to bankfull. Many small streams and
creeks will or are experiencing at least minor flooding, with
even some of the larger rivers seeing flooding as well.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte/Tyburski
AVIATION...Martin
HYDROLOGY...RXR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
336 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056-058-110745-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Schuylkill-
336 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather will be low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-057-059-063>066-110745-
Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
336 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There will be a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon or evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather will be low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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