River Flood Warning 23, NWS State College, PA

259 
WGUS81 KCTP 250945
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Aughwick Creek At Shirleysburg
  Conodoguinet Creek Near Hogestown
  Yellow Breeches Creek Near Camp Hill
  Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern
  Swatara Creek Near Hershey
  Loyalsock Creek At Loyalsockville
  Swatara Creek Above Middletown

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued this morning.
&&

PAC075-107-252144-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180728T0100Z/
/HTVP1.3.ER.180723T0903Z.180725T1800Z.180727T1900Z.NO/
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern.
* At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 16.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 17.6 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage Friday afternoon.
* At 16.0 feet...Most homes adjacent to the creek are affected to 
  some degree. Numerous evacuations are necessary.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 7648 4052 7639 4037 7647 4034 7659
      4038 7663 4043 7658             

$$

PAC043-252144-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MTLP1.2.ER.180724T0541Z.180726T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Above Middletown.
* At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 17.7 feet by tomorrow evening then begin 
  falling.
* At 18.0 feet widespread flooding occurs.  Numerous homes are affect by 
  high water.  Route 230 is affected.  Flooding begins in the vacinity
  of Hoffer Park.


&&

LAT...LON 4026 7676 4024 7668 4019 7669 4016 7672
      4018 7675                       

$$

PAC043-075-252144-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HERP1.3.ER.180723T1424Z.180726T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey.
* At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 15.1 feet by this evening then begin 
  falling.
* At 14.0 feet...Numerous homes adjacent to the creek are affected by
  high water.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$

PAC081-113-252144-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0023.180725T1900Z-180726T1513Z/
/LOYP1.1.ER.180725T1900Z.180726T0600Z.180726T0913Z.NO/
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Loyalsock Creek At Loyalsockville.
* from this afternoon to Thursday morning...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 9.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late this 
  afternoon and crest near 12.7 feet by after midnight tonight.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by early tomorrow morning.
* At 13.0 feet...Approximate level of the FEMA 10% Annual Chance 
  Flood level (10-year flood).  Several homes and the Loyalsock Game 
  Farm are affected by high water levels.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 7671 4139 7669 4132 7690 4124 7691
      4125 7695 4135 7693             

$$

PAC061-252144-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0021.180726T0400Z-180726T1800Z/
/SLYP1.1.ER.180726T0400Z.180726T0600Z.180726T1200Z.NO/
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Aughwick Creek At Shirleysburg.
* from late tonight to Thursday afternoon...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 4 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight 
  tonight and crest near 10.3 feet by after midnight tonight.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* At 10.0 feet...Aughwick Creek at Shirleysburg exceeds its banks. 
  Several homes are affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7789 4036 7782 4030 7783 4023 7788
      4025 7795 4032 7791             

$$

PAC041-252144-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180728T0600Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.180725T0056Z.180726T1800Z.180728T0000Z.NO/
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Conodoguinet Creek Near Hogestown.
* At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early this 
  morning and crest near 9.6 feet by early afternoon tomorrow.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by Friday evening.
* At 10.0 feet...Some residences in the vicinity of Erb's Bridge 
  Road, Prowell Road, Stone Spring Lane, and Oyster Mill Road are 
  flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7747 4028 7713 4031 7692 4023 7689
      4020 7715 4015 7748             

$$

PAC041-133-252144-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180727T1300Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.180725T0316Z.180726T1100Z.180727T0700Z.UU/
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Yellow Breeches Creek Near Camp Hill.
* At 5 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 8.5 feet by tomorrow morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* At 9.0 feet...A number of homes in the Green Lane Farms development
  are affected by high water. Cedar Cliff Drive on the left bank 
  upstream from the single span bridge on Green Lane Drive is 
  inundated. Creekwood Drive has several feet of water on it, and 
  water is approaching homes.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7686 4023 7685 4016 7689 4015 7693
      4018 7695 4023 7692 4023 7689   

$$

CR

311 
WGUS81 KCTP 251449
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Loyalsock Creek At Loyalsockville

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Aughwick Creek At Shirleysburg
  Penns Creek Near Penns Creek
  Conodoguinet Creek Near Hogestown
  Yellow Breeches Creek Near Camp Hill
  Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern
  Swatara Creek Near Hershey
  West Branch Susquehanna At Muncy
  West Branch Susquehanna At Montgomery
  West Branch Susquehanna At Watsontown
  West Branch Susquehanna At West Milton
  West Branch Susquehanna At Lewisburg
  Susquehanna River At Bloomsburg
  Susquehanna River At Danville
  Susquehanna River Near Sunbury
  Susquehanna River At Harrisburg
  Susquehanna River At Marietta
  Swatara Creek Above Middletown

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued later this afternoon.

&&

PAC075-107-260249-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180727T2000Z/
/HTVP1.3.ER.180723T0903Z.180725T1346Z.180727T1400Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.0 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is near crest and will begin falling to below flood stage by late Friday
  morning.
* At 18.0 feet...Widespread flooding occurs with many roads, homes 
  and businesses affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 7648 4052 7639 4037 7647 4034 7659
      4038 7663 4043 7658             

$$

PAC043-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MTLP1.2.ER.180724T0541Z.180726T1500Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Above Middletown.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 17.4 feet by late morning tomorrow then 
  begin falling.
* At 18.0 feet...Widespread flooding occurs.  Numerous homes are 
  affected by high water.  Route 230 is affected.  Flooding begins in
  the vicinty of Hoffer Park.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 7676 4024 7668 4019 7669 4016 7672
      4018 7675                       

$$

PAC043-075-260249-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-180728T0600Z/
/HERP1.3.ER.180723T1424Z.180726T0000Z.180728T0000Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 17.0 feet by this evening. The river will
  fall below flood stage Friday evening.
* At 16.0 feet...Numerous homes adjacent to the creek are affected by
  high water.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$

PAC109-119-260249-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180727T0400Z/
/PNCP1.2.ER.180724T2250Z.180726T0600Z.180726T2200Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Penns Creek Near Penns Creek.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 10.0 feet after midnight tonight. The 
  river will fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* At 10.0 feet...High water overflows both banks. Several homes and 
  cottages on the left or north bank are affected. Many secondary 
  roads along the creek are closed due to high water levels.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7712 4089 7705 4089 7698 4086 7698
      4085 7706 4086 7711             

$$

PAC081-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0024.180726T0339Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCYP1.1.ER.180726T0339Z.180726T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Branch Susquehanna At Muncy.
* from this evening until further notice...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and 
  crest near 21.6 feet by early tomorrow morning.
* At 22.0 feet...A number of homes are flooded. Route 405 is affected
  between Muncy and Montgomery.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 7689 4125 7677 4118 7678 4119 7683
      4121 7685 4123 7690             

$$

PAC081-097-119-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0025.180725T2146Z-000000T0000Z/
/MTGP1.1.ER.180725T2146Z.180726T0900Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Branch Susquehanna At Montgomery.
* from this afternoon until further notice...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late this 
  afternoon and crest near 23.2 feet by early tomorrow morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Several homes on Broad and Second streets are 
  affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4119 7683 4118 7678 4113 7686 4114 7692
      4119 7688                       

$$

PAC097-119-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WATP1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180726T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Branch Susquehanna At Watsontown.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage late this afternoon
  and crest near 23.6 feet by early tomorrow morning.
* At 23.0 feet...The park on the left, or east bank floods. Roadway 
  flooding occurs at a few low lying areas on both sides of the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 4114 7692 4113 7686 4110 7684 4106 7683
      4105 7689 4109 7690             

$$

PAC097-119-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0027.180725T2300Z-180727T0627Z/
/ILTP1.1.ER.180725T2300Z.180726T1100Z.180727T0027Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Branch Susquehanna At West Milton.
* from this evening to late Thursday night...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 16.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  crest near 20.6 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* At 21.0 feet...River Road in West Milton floods. Low lying areas in
  Milton are inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 7689 4106 7683 4102 7682 4099 7684
      4099 7686 4102 7688             

$$

PAC097-119-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0028.180726T0000Z-180727T0736Z/
/LWBP1.1.ER.180726T0000Z.180726T1200Z.180727T0136Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Branch Susquehanna At Lewisburg.
* from this evening to late Thursday night...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  crest near 20.3 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by late evening tomorrow.
* At 21.0 feet...The left, or east bank experiences substantial 
  overflow.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 7689 4099 7684 4096 7684 4093 7683
      4090 7687 4095 7693             

$$

PAC061-260249-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0021.180726T0700Z-180727T0000Z/
/SLYP1.1.ER.180726T0700Z.180726T1100Z.180726T1800Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Aughwick Creek At Shirleysburg.
* from late tonight to Thursday evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow 
  morning and crest near 10.5 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will
  fall below flood stage by early afternoon tomorrow.
* At 10.0 feet...Aughwick Creek at Shirleysburg exceeds its banks. 
  Several homes are affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7789 4036 7782 4030 7783 4023 7788
      4025 7795 4032 7791             

$$

PAC037-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0029.180726T2300Z-180727T2252Z/
/BMBP1.1.ER.180726T2300Z.180727T0600Z.180727T1652Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Bloomsburg.
* from Thursday evening to Friday evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 9.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening
  and crest near 21.1 feet by early Friday morning. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early Friday afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet...A number of homes located between the fairgrounds 
  and the river are affected by high water. Several buildings at the 
  airport are also affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 7655 4111 7623 4104 7623 4097 7621
      4089 7647                       

$$

PAC037-093-097-119-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0030.180727T0025Z-180728T0331Z/
/DANP1.1.ER.180727T0025Z.180727T1200Z.180727T2131Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Danville.
* from Thursday evening to Friday evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening
  and crest near 21.8 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 21.0 feet...Basements flood in homes along Mahoning Creek on the
  right bank of the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 7670 4103 7655 4089 7647 4087 7670
      4094 7677                       

$$

PAC043-067-097-099-109-119-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0031.180726T2200Z-180728T0000Z/
/SBYP1.1.ER.180726T2200Z.180727T0600Z.180727T1800Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River Near Sunbury.
* from Thursday evening to Friday evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening
  and crest near 25.1 feet by early Friday morning. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early Friday afternoon.
* At 26.0 feet...High water affects a number of homes and businesses 
  in areas not protected by the flood wall and levee system.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7684 4094 7677 4087 7671 4080 7675
      4046 7691 4052 7705             

$$

PAC041-043-067-071-099-109-133-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0032.180726T1500Z-180728T1400Z/
/HARP1.1.ER.180726T1500Z.180727T1200Z.180728T0800Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Harrisburg.
* from Thursday morning to Saturday morning...Or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late morning 
  tomorrow and crest near 19.1 feet by Friday morning. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 19.0 feet...A number of homes in West Fairview, Dauphin, and 
  Harrisburg flood.  Flood waters begin to reach Front Street in East
  Pennsboro Township in Cumberland County.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 7705 4046 7691 4034 7686 4015 7664
      4010 7676 4036 7705             

$$

PAC071-133-260249-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0033.180726T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRTP1.1.ER.180726T1200Z.180727T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Marietta.
* from Thursday morning until further notice...Or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 47.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 49.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning
  and crest near 52.0 feet by early Friday afternoon.
* At 52.0 feet...A number of residences in the Wrightsville and 
  Columbia areas begin to be affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 7676 4015 7664 4005 7644 3997 7634
      3987 7647 4001 7662             

$$

PAC041-260249-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180727T2300Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.180725T0056Z.180726T1800Z.180727T1700Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Conodoguinet Creek Near Hogestown.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 9.3 feet by early afternoon tomorrow. The
  river will fall below flood stage early Friday afternoon.
* At 10.0 feet...Some residences in the vicinity of Erb's Bridge 
  Road, Prowell Road, Stone Spring Lane, and Oyster Mill Road are 
  flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7747 4028 7713 4031 7692 4023 7689
      4020 7715 4015 7748             

$$

PAC041-133-260249-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180727T0700Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.180725T0316Z.180726T1200Z.180727T0100Z.UU/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Yellow Breeches Creek Near Camp Hill.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 8.1 feet by tomorrow morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage late evening tomorrow.
* At 9.0 feet...A number of homes in the Green Lane Farms development
  are affected by high water. Cedar Cliff Drive on the left bank 
  upstream from the single span bridge on Green Lane Drive is 
  inundated. Creekwood Drive has several feet of water on it, and 
  water is approaching homes.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7686 4023 7685 4016 7689 4015 7693
      4018 7695 4023 7692 4023 7689   

$$

PAC081-113-251519-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180726T1513Z/
/LOYP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Loyalsock Creek At Loyalsockville.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river will crest below flood stage at 11.7 feet by after 
  midnight tonight.
* At 12.0 feet...Several residences are affected by high water 
  levels.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 7671 4139 7669 4132 7690 4124 7691
      4125 7695 4135 7693             

$$

CR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
330 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep upper level trough will remain just west of Pennsylvania
through midweek, then lift northeast through the region
Wednesday night or early Thursday. An upper low and associated
cold front will push southeast into the region on Friday. By
early next week, an area of low pressure will likely approach
Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Regional radar loop at 07Z is showing widespread showers across
central Pa in region of high pwats ahead of upper trough over
the Ohio Valley. Low level jet and associated plume of deepest
moisture currently runs from southeast Pa into the Middle Susq
Valley and is progged to lift northeast of the forecast area by
later this morning. However, radar trends and latest HRRR
indicate 2+ inches of rain could fall before that occurs over
portions of Sullivan Co between 07Z-10Z. In general, will keep
the highest POPS of near 100 pct over north central Pa early
this morning in region of enhanced large scale lift associated
with dual jet streaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Expect a relative lull in shower activity late this morning,
as low level jet lifts northeast of the region. However, the
approaching upper trough, combined with modest diurnal heating,
should result in a resurgence of moderately high ML cape, and
widespread convection by afternoon. The combination of high
PWATs and moderate instability will once again support locally
heavy rain amounts, so the flash flood threat remains in effect
through this evening.

Max temps Wednesday will be similar, but vary a few degrees from
those on Tuesday.

Med range guidance indicates weakening upper trough and
associated surface cold front will push through the region early
Thursday. Lingering morning showers in the east should give way
to clearing skies, as drier air filters in behind the front. The
return of partly to mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures
to rebound to seasonal levels in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance remains in fairly good agreement into late week, all
of which shows an upper low and associated surface cold front
pushing southeast into Pa on Friday, likely accompanied by
scattered showers and tstorms. A period of fair weather appears
likely Saturday, as high pressure builds into the area. Model
spread and forecast uncertainty then ramp up Sunday/Monday.
However, the general trend is for an increasing chance of
showers returning, as a deepening upper trough forms over the
Miss Valley and edges east. Based on latest GEFS and ECENS
output, have reserved the best chance of showers for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A continuation of the frequent shower/heavy rain pattern is
expected through Wednesday. Observation trends over the past 24
hours indicate prevailing MVFR conditions for the most part,
with shorter duration IFR reductions in periods of +RA.
Ceilings will improve a bit during the day and trend lower at
night. A wind shift to the west should promote IFR conditions
across the western airspace late tonight into Thursday.

.Outlook...

Thu-Sat...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/t'storms possible
with brief reductions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A wide plume of deep tropical moisture with precipitable water
values running 2-3 ST Deviations above normal will continue to
bring numerous showers and a few isolated thunderstorms with
mainly brief periods of torrential rainfall into this evening.

Given the already wet ground across the eastern half of the
state, any additional heavy rain will pose a very serious
stream flooding threat today through Wednesday, with eventual
River flooding (at least minor flooding) later this week. The
threat of locally heavy rain should abate by Thursday, as high
pressure builds into the area.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ006-012-018-019-
025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert
LONG TERM...Ross/Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Steinbugl
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1240 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-251645-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
1240 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-251645-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1240 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1124 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST YORK               39.95N  76.75W
07/24/2018                   YORK               PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING OF CODORUS CREEK ONTO S RICHLAND AVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802043

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLOOD            TOWER CITY              40.59N  76.55W
07/25/2018                   SCHUYLKILL         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3-4" OF WATER OVER US-209. SR-325/GOLD MINE RD IS
            CLOSED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802044

STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
213 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     FLOOD            KLINESVILLE             40.05N  76.51W
07/25/2018                   LANCASTER          PA   PEMA

            LANDSLIDE HAS CLOSED PA-441 IN BOTH DIRECTIONS BTWN X
            OLD CHICKIES RD AND KLINESVILLE RD IN WEST HEMPFIELD TWP

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802045

STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLOOD            YORK                    39.96N  76.73W
07/25/2018                   YORK               PA   911 CALL CENTER

            ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES INCLUDING GLEN ROCK RD SOUTH
            OF YORK AND CAMP BETTY RD IN WASHINGTON TWP

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802046

STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
323 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     FLOOD            LEBANON                 40.34N  76.42W
07/25/2018                   LEBANON            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN
            PART OF THE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802047

STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
326 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DANVILLE                40.96N  76.61W
07/25/2018                   MONTOUR            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED COUNTY-WIDE

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802048

STEINBUGL