Frost Advisory 2, NWS State College, PA

822 
WWUS71 KCTP 182043
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
443 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

PAZ045-046-049>053-058-059-191300-
/O.CON.KCTP.FZ.W.0004.181019T0500Z-181019T1300Z/
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Including the cities of Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, 
Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, 
Pottsville, and Lebanon
443 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...Lows around freezing.

* TIMING...Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures may damage or kill sensitive 
  vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Those with agricultural or gardening interests should take steps
to protect sensitive vegetation in order to extend the growing
season.

&&

$$

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-056-057-063>066-191300-
/O.CON.KCTP.FR.Y.0002.181019T0500Z-181019T1300Z/
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, 
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, 
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Carlisle, Gettysburg,
York, and Lancaster
443 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the mid 30s.

* TIMING...Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost may damage sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Those with agricultural or gardening interests should take steps
to protect sensitive vegetation in order to extend the growing
season.

&&

$$

Lambert

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
130 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A gusty west to northwest wind in the wake of a cold front will
reinforce the chilly air across the region. It will be mainly
dry and much cooler than normal through the end of the week as
the center of a high pressure area drifts by just to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
Lake effect is staying mainly to the north of the PA for the
moment. But, the clouds percolating off the lakes should
continue to hold some snow showers through sunrise. However, the
snow showers are zipping along and are very cellular now. The
disorganized pattern to the showers is likely due to the high
shear and very warm lake contributing to a deep mixed layer. The
intensity of the showers is only a mile or so at worst in KOLE.
Only minor tweaks are necessary to the near term, mainly trying
to follow recent CAM guidance on location of the showers and to
try to time the diminishing to flurries.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Thermal trough lifts off to the NE early in the day, ending the
sct shsn/flurries over the NW by the start of the period. The
clouds should be gone for most of the area in the afternoon, but
the far NW will stay pretty cloudy until late aftn. High
pressure off to our SW will start to shove milder air in aloft
later in the day and overnight Thursday night. But, the cold,
dry air at the sfc will be tough to displace. The sky will be
clear Thur night, and the wind much lighter than tonight. Thus,
a widespread frost still looks likely, with mins a deg or two
colder than tonight over the growing-area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*Frost/freeze conditions Thursday Night-Friday morning may
 damage or kill sensitive vegetation
*A taste of winter Saturday Night-Sunday. Blustery winds, snow
 showers, reduced visibility with some accumulation in the
 higher elevations

Issued Freeze Watch 1-9AM Thursday morning with high confidence
in frost/freeze conditions in areas where the extended growing
season remains active.

Friday will start mostly sunny with increasing clouds late.
Light rain showers are fcst spread into central PA Friday night
into Saturday. QPF is less than 0.25 inch through 00Z Sunday.

A more potent shot of cold air will be accompanied by gusty
winds and snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Light snow
accumulation seems likely in the NW snowbelt and higher
elevations of the Allegheny Plateau down into the Laurel
Highlands (along/west of US-219). Wind chills in the low 30s NW
to low 40s SE on Sunday will make it feel more like early
December than late October. Conditions should improve into
Monday as high pressure migrates eastward from the Mid MS
Valley. Tuesday-Wednesday look seasonably cool and mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the front continues to move south, MVFR cigs have moved into
JST and UNV. Expect them to also form at BFD.

The biggest forecast question is the dropping of the low level
jet to the surface between 01Z to around 06Z. This will allow
for wind gusts up to 30kts possible. The upper level winds will
slacken and will correspond with the building of the inversion
which will allow for gusts to end and winds to weaken between
06Z to 08Z.
 Light rain continues at IPT but conditions should remain above
MVFR. Any reducing conditions will improve by 15Z.

.Outlook...

Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat and Sunday...AM low cigs possible W Mtns Sat. Elsewhere
Scattered showers and areas of mainly MVFR CIGS as a cold front
pushes SE across the PA airfields. Then...SHSNRA/cig reductions
possible NW Mtns after dark Sat evening and through much
Sunday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
306 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042-190900-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Somerset-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
306 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-056-057-063>066-190900-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
306 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ045-046-049>053-058-059-190900-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
306 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.