Flood Watch 2, NWS State College, PA

924 
WGUS61 KCTP 151148
FFACTP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service State College PA
648 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018


PAZ056-057-063-065-066-151300-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180115T1200Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Carlisle, 
York, and Lancaster
648 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for the Susquehanna River has been cancelled.
River levels area receding this morning and the threat of ice 
jams has diminished. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
723 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep cold upper level trough will swing through the region
this weekend into the middle of next week. This feature will
lift out by the end of next week and be replaced by a building
upper ridge over the east coast by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold, dry air mass settling into Pa this morning. Despite low
inversion heights, patchy stratocu and a few flurries still
noted downwind of the lakes across parts of the Allegheny
Plateau and mountains of northeast Pa. Interesting to note the
limited moisture flux from mostly frozen Lake Erie. Arrival of
high pressure and falling inversion heights should cause
stratocu to dwindle over all but Warren County by later today.

Based on current observations and near term wind forecast, it
looks like only the highest ridgetops of the Alleghenies will
see wind chills of -15 or lower. However, will make no changes
at this point to the advisory, which lasts through 15Z.

Fair and cold weather expected today with surface high directly
over the state. Despite abundant sunshine over most of the area,
temperatures will remain well below seasonal averages. Mixing
down ensemble mean 925mb temps of around -15C translates to
expected maxes from the teens over the Allegheny Plateau, to the
low 20s across the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Another very cold night is in store for the area with favorable
conditions for radiational cooling beneath surface high. Models
do indicate some cirrus spreading into the state ahead of a
shortwave lifting northeast up the Appalachians. However, light
wind and snow cover should allow readings to fall to around -5F
over the northern mountains. Wind chills may again approach -15F
along the ridgetops of northern Pa, but most locations should
remain sub-advisory.

An Alberta Clipper will swing southeast across the lower Grt Lks
Monday, spreading increasing cloud cover into the state and
perhaps a bit of light snow across the northwest counties during
the afternoon. Readings are expected to moderate a bit Monday in
WAA regime ahead of clipper, but thickening cloud cover will
temper the warm up. NBM/SuperBlend indicating highs in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Med range guidance showing a weakening clipper tracking across
the eastern Grt Lks Monday night, a track unfavorable for much
snow in central Pa. Weak WAA, combined with orographic
enhancement, may produce up to an inch across the
northern/western mountains Mon Night, with little further east.

However, a weak secondary low tracking from the southern
Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coast, combined with
frontogenetic forcing resulting from jet streak entrance
circulation, could potentially produce a couple of inches
across our southeast counties Tuesday/Tuesday night.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will work into the region by
Wednesday, as deep upper trough swings through the region.
Surface ridging over the area indicates there will be very
limited lake effect activity, and mostly sunny skies east of
the mountains Wed/Thursday.

00Z NAEFS and ECENS continue to advertise a pattern change by
late in the forecast period, with upper trough lifting out and
an anomalous upper ridge building over the eastern conus by
next weekend. Return southwest flow and above normal
temperatures appear very likely by next weekend, as surface
high passes off the east coast and anomalous 850 temps surge
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Reinforcing shot of cold air will bring breezy NW winds this
morning and a period of MVFR cigs in KJST and KBFD this
morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conds are expected through the
period as high pressure builds into the region.

Outlook...

Mon...PM light snow poss west. PM low cigs poss east.

Tue...Morning snow ending. Becoming VFR south and east,
lingering snow showers and restrictions over the mountains.

Wed...Mainly VFR, but brief reductions in vsby and cigs
possible across the Northern and Western mtns as a result of
isolated snow showers.

Thu...Mainly VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Complicated hydrology going on across the CWA. The rain from the
last couple days is making its way through the river systems.
There has been lots of ice movement and there are still active
ice jams across some of the area and anyone near rivers and
streams should monitor levels closely. With the cold
temperatures water will begin refreezing which should lock up
shortly. Exception to all this is along the lower Susquehanna.
Will be watching a significant rise move downstream towards
Harrisburg tonight and Sunday. Expect flows to rapidly increase
which will begin moving some of the ice. Fortunately water
levels are low and it will take quite a bit of water to produce
flooding from any ice jams but this area will be monitored
closely. It will certainly be interesting to watch the ice move
through the city tomorrow.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ005-
006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Ceru/Gartner
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
602 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

PAZ004-019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-151115-
Warren-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-
Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
602 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042-151115-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Somerset-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
602 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.