Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Watches in 2018
Flash Flood Watch 13, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood watch at Aug 1, 2018, 4:06 AM EDT for 28 counties in Pennsylvania. It took effect at Aug 1, 2018, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 68 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 1, 2018, 4:06 AM EDT (08:06 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 1, 2018, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 4, 2018, 7:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 68 hr
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
- Flood severity
- None
All 28 counties
Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, York County, PA
The radar
The State College radar (KCCX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 704 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 777 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 112 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.6
The text
As transmitted.
914 WGUS61 KCTP 010806 FFACTP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 406 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 ...Periods of heavy to excessive rain expected Today into Friday... .An extensive plume of tropical moisture will combine with a warm front over the region to focus several rounds of showers and thunderstorms today into early Friday. Some of the thunderstorms could train northeast over the same areas, elevating the threat for Flash Flooding. PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>058- 063-064-020100- /O.NEW.KCTP.FF.A.0013.180801T1600Z-180803T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 406 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in State College has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, and Union. * From noon EDT today through Friday morning * Several rounds of moderate to heavy showers, and the potential for localized training of thunderstorms across the same locations, could lead to excessive rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in less than an hour, and bring the threat of flash flooding. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. Washed out roads and the depth of water over the roads is especially difficult to discern at night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$ Lambert/Steinbugl
10 follow-up statements
035 WGUS61 KCTP 011413 FFACTP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 1013 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 ...Periods of heavy to excessive rain expected Today into Friday... .An extensive plume of tropical moisture will combine with a warm front over the region to focus several rounds of showers and thunderstorms today into early Friday. Some of the thunderstorms could train northeast over the same areas, elevating the threat for Flash Flooding. PAZ037-059-065-066-012215- /O.EXA.KCTP.FF.A.0013.180801T1600Z-180803T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Tioga-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Mansfield, Wellsboro, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster 1013 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in State College has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Lancaster, Lebanon, Tioga, and York. * Through Friday morning * Several rounds of moderate to heavy showers, and the potential for localized training of thunderstorms across the same locations, could lead to excessive rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in less than an hour, and bring the threat of flash flooding. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. Washed out roads and the depth of water over the roads is especially difficult to discern at night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$ PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>058- 063-064-012215- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0013.180801T1600Z-180803T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 1013 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, and Union. * Through Friday morning * Several rounds of moderate to heavy showers, and the potential for localized training of thunderstorms across the same locations, could lead to excessive rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in less than an hour, and bring the threat of flash flooding. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. Washed out roads and the depth of water over the roads is especially difficult to discern at night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$
525 WGUS61 KCTP 020130 FFACTP Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 930 PM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 ...Periods of heavy to excessive rain expected into Friday... PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-021200- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180803T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 930 PM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, and York. * Through Friday morning * Several rounds of moderate to heavy showers, and the potential for localized training of thunderstorms across the same locations, could lead to excessive rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in less than an hour, and bring the threat of flash flooding. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. Washed out roads and the depth of water over the roads is especially difficult to discern at night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$ DeVoir
273 WGUS61 KCTP 020932 FFACTP Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 532 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 ...Periods of heavy to excessive rain expected today into Friday... PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-022100- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180803T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 532 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, and York. * Through Friday morning * Several rounds of moderate to heavy showers, and the potential for localized training of thunderstorms across the same locations, could lead to excessive rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in less than an hour, and bring the threat of flash flooding. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. Washed out roads and the depth of water over the roads is especially difficult to discern at night. * The likely occurrence of another few weak waves of low pressure riding north ahead of a slow moving cold front, will help to trigger additional showers and thunderstorms on Friday. This may prompt the extension of the Flash Flood Watch, at least through the day Friday, with the next update late this morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$ Lambert
758 WGUS61 KCTP 021428 FFACTP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 1028 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 ...Periods of heavy to excessive rain expected today through Friday... PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-030330- /O.EXT.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1028 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, and York. * Through Friday evening * Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, and again Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening. Many of these storms will produce heavy rain. If some of these storms repeatedly cross the same locations, it could cause flash flooding. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. It especially difficult at night to discern the depth of water over a road, and even if that road may be washed out. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$
378 WGUS61 KCTP 030259 FFACTP Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 1059 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 ...Periods of heavy to excessive rain expected through Friday... PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-040200- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1059 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, and York. * Through Friday evening * Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, and again Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening. Many of these storms will produce heavy rain. If some of these storms repeatedly cross the same locations, it could cause flash flooding. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. It especially difficult at night to discern the depth of water over a road, and even if that road may be washed out. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$
043 WGUS61 KCTP 030300 FFACTP Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 ...Periods of heavy to excessive rain expected through Friday... PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-040200- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, and York. * Through Friday evening * Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms overnight and Friday afternoon and evening. Many of these storms will produce heavy rain. If some of these storms repeatedly cross the same locations, it could cause flash flooding. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. It especially difficult at night to discern the depth of water over a road, and even if that road may be washed out. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$
719 WGUS61 KCTP 030725 FFACTP Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 325 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 ...Periods of heavy to excessive rain are expected to fall across the region through this evening... PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-040200- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 325 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, and York. * Through this evening * Several rounds of moderate to heavy showers this morning are expected to bring between one quarter and three quarters of an inch of rain to many locations across the Central Mountains, and communities throughout the Susquehanna's West Branch Valley. Additional showers and scattered afternoon thunderstorms will bring the threat for more areas of heavy rain this afternoon and evening. If some of these thunderstorms repeatedly cross the same locations, flash flooding could occur. * Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the roads turn around and seek and alternate route. It especially difficult at night to discern the depth of water over a road, and even if that road may be washed out. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$ Lambert/Martin
501 WGUS61 KCTP 032230 FFACTP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 630 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 PAZ017-032330- /O.CAN.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Clearfield- Including the cities of DuBois and Clearfield 630 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for Clearfield County has been cancelled. Showers remain possible through this evening. However, the threat of flooding has diminished. $$ PAZ028-036-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-040630- /O.EXT.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Juniata-Franklin-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Laporte, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 630 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following counties, Adams, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Montour, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Union, and York. * Through Saturday morning * Heavy showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to affect the area overnight. Locally heavy rain falling on already wet ground could result in flash flooding in a few locations. * If you encounter water over the road, turn around and seek an alternate route. It is especially difficult at night to discern the depth of water over a road, or if that road may be washed out. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$ PAZ012-018-019-024>027-033>035-037-041-045-040200- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton- Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, and Lock Haven 630 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following counties, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Fulton, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, and Tioga. * Until 10 PM EDT this evening * Additional showers are likely across the region this evening. A few locations could receive heavy downpours and flash flooding. The threat of heavy rain and flooding will shift east of the region by late this evening. * If you encounter water over the road, turn around and seek an alternate route. It is especially difficult at night to discern the depth of water over a road, or if that road may be washed out. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$
348 WGUS61 KCTP 040658 FFACTP Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 PAZ028-036-042-046-049>053-056-063-064-040800- /O.CAN.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Juniata-Franklin-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Laporte, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central Pennsylvania has been cancelled. Heavy rain has ended over the area. Creeks and streams will continue to run high for several hours due to earlier rains, but the threat for flash flooding has diminished. $$ PAZ057>059-065-066-041200- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, and York. * Until 8 AM EDT this morning * Heavy showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to continue through about sunrise before tapering off and moving away from the area. Locally heavy rain falling on already wet ground could result in flash flooding in a few locations. * If you encounter water over the road, turn around and seek an alternate route. It is especially difficult at night to discern the depth of water over a road, or if that road may be washed out. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood. && $$
853 WGUS61 KCTP 041145 FFACTP Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 745 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 PAZ057>059-065-066-041245- /O.CAN.KCTP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-180804T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster 745 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The threat of additional heavy rain and potential for new areas of flash flooding has ended. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Pennsylvania has been cancelled. Inundation flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas will continue this morning across portions of the lower Susquehanna Valley. Flooding is also expected along some small streams and creeks. $$ MS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Aug 1, 1:21 AM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 1:21 AM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 121 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front to our south and a plume of tropical moisture being lifted up and over it will bring another extended, cloudy and showery period that will last through the rest of this work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Deep layer moisture continues to increase from S to N late this evening in broad southwest flow aloft. Classic cool air damming kept most of my area stable with low clouds locked in east of the Alleghenies into this evening. Shortwaves rotating around long wave trof lifting NE into the central GLAKS acting on the deep moisture will keep a chance of showers going overnight across especially the southern half of central PA. Lows will be in the 60s to lower 70s, which will average around 10 deg warmer than normal. Dewpoints coming up will start to make the humidity become noticeable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Increasing 925-850MB SSW flow will help to advect even higher PWAT air north in the commonwealth for tonight and Wednesday. With the diffuse warm front either moving through the state or just falling apart, a soupy airmass will be in place for any weak disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft to take advantage of. The 12Z GFS develops CAPEs in the 1000-1600 J range by mid afternoon over central and eastern areas. The NAM and ECMWF are even more unstable. WPC has shifted their ERO Slight Risk pretty much right over the center of the CWA for Wednesday, so any convection that develops could be enough to cause flooding issues. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s will be somewhat closer to normal for the beginning of August. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper level energy drops out of the Pac NW and digs a highly amplified trough over the Midwest. Plenty of comparison is beginning to be made between this upcoming wet period and the soggy, boggy conditions (and in some cases flooding) that we had just this past week. It does not look entirely similar, However an upper trough will be digging and sharpening to our west, leading to an extensive and deep south to SSW flow across the Appalachians through much of this upcoming week. PWATS in excess of 2 inches lurking along the Carolina and SE U.S. coast will eventually get tapped and help to produce periods of numerous showers/TSRA over all of Central PA beginning later Monday/Mon Evening as PWATs climb to near 1 sigma across southern PA. Much higher PWAT air - between 45-50MM will once again overspread most of the CWA Tuesday afternoon and night. Any weak disturbances rippling NNE in the flow aloft will tap this moisture and become fueled with areas of mdt ML cape to produce areas of high precip rates. The threat for locally heavy rain and potential flooding is covered in our most recent HWO/graphical EHWO. MMEFS river stages indicate potential larger stream/creek levels exceeding minor flood stage during the mid to late week period. However, exact crest heights and the timing/sharpness of rises will be highly dependent on the amount, location and duration of the rain. As we head through this coming week, flash flood watches may be needed once again, especially across the SE half of the state where the most persistent, high PWAT values will be noted. PWAT wind anomalies from GEFS solutions only peak around 2" for a brief time Tues- Wed. The positive PWAT anomaly shifts a little to the east of the state, and is not fed by the Atlantic as much as last week. The 8H u (E-W) wind anomalies are never easterly - another sign of less/no Atlantic moisture being fed in. That said...There is a high probability for showers/storms each afternoon/evening from Monday thru the end of the period. Day8 (Sun) may be the next day that we can go less than seasonal PoP climatology (25pct NW and 20pct SE for 12 hrs). Most days it's just about worth a 50 or 60 PoP. Those are lofty numbers for this forecaster to place in a medium range fcst. The coverage will be the reason we won't go even higher in this fcst cycle. The temps do not look terribly hot, but rather seasonable. This side of the Bermuda sfc high will make the humidity high. It will feel muggy all week, but likely not oppressive. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... *UNV ATCT tower will transmit manual obs between 10-01Z. Obs will be missing from 02-09Z, but the dial-in option is still available. Expect a repeat of diurnal ceiling trends with widespread MVFR to IFR this morning giving way to MVFR/low-end VFR by the afternoon. Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms will bring intermittent visibility restrictions. Storms may produce strong gusty winds across the eastern 1/2 of the airspace. Low ceilings are most likely to develop across the northwest 1/2 of the airspace tonight into Thursday morning. .Outlook... Thu-Sun...Daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. MVFR-IFR ceilings possible especially in the morning and at night. && .CLIMATE... *Wettest July on record at Harrisburg, Williamsport and State College; 4th wettest at Altoona *4th wettest individual month at Harrisburg and Williamsport Total monthly rainfall of 12.09" at Harrisburg, 11.99" at Williamsport, and 9.37" State College ranks as the wettest July on record. 7.30" at Altoona ranks as the 4th wettest July. The previous record July rainfall totals were 9.72" at Harrisburg in 1969, 9.65" inches at Williamsport in 1992, and 7.30" at State College in 2004. The monthly rainfall totals at Harrisburg and Williamsport are not only the wettest for July, but more impressively (without direct influence from a tropical cyclone) rank as the 4th wettest individual month since records began in 1888 and 1895. The top 3 wettest months at Harrisburg all had direct help from a tropical cyclone: 1. 18.55" June 1972 (Agnes) 2. 18.43" September 2011 (Lee) 3. 14.97" September 1975 (Eloise) 4. 12.09" July 2018 5. 11.04" October 2013 5 consecutive days of at least 1" of rain in Harrisburg from July 21-25 matches the longest stretch on record (Sept. 4-8, 2011 with TS Lee). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 6:36 AM EDT, 21 hours 30 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 636 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 PAZ004-011045- Warren- 636 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ005-006-010-011-017-011045- McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield- 636 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-011045- Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill- Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 636 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding and minor small stream and creek flooding are possible through Friday. Areas that received excessive rainfall over the past week will be more vulnerable to potential flooding issues. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. MS
The office that day
Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 8:50 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | CTP | Bedford, Fulton | 3 hr |
| Jul 31, 8:55 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | CTP | Fulton | 35 min |
| Aug 1, 3:08 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | CTP | Montour | 52 min |
| Aug 1, 3:55 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | CTP | Sullivan | 35 min |
| Aug 1, 5:02 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | CTP | Bedford | 43 min |
| Aug 1, 5:42 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | CTP | Huntingdon | 33 min |
| Aug 1, 5:56 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | CTP | Fulton | 34 min |
| Aug 1, 6:25 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | CTP | Huntingdon | 3 hr |
| Aug 1, 6:40 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | CTP | Franklin, Perry | 35 min |
| Aug 1, 7:11 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | CTP | Cumberland, Franklin, Fulton, Perry | 3 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Pennsylvania, 2018Every flash flood watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.