Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
350 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain warm and humid for over the next seven days. A
stalled out frontal boundary will stay near the Mason-Dixon line
through at least mid day Saturday keeping the chance for showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast. High pressure will ridge in
from the northeast later Saturday through early next week
bringing a decreased chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The radar lit up as expected over my SERN zones with severe
Flash Flooding in progress in portions of Lancaster County. .
SPC meso anal page shows a wedge of PWATs in excess of 2 inches
from the Chesapeake Bay up into SERN PA, with the mean flow out
of the S or SE into the area of deepest moisture.

Low level Theta-E field shows a weak boundary stalled from just
west of Chesapeake Bay north into Franklin County then westward.
Moderate instability is being acted upon by low level
convergence and weak upper divergence up into the right entrance
region of a mid/upper jet streak over SRN NY and NERN Pa
resulting in a small area of slow moving very heavy
thunderstorms. The risk for today will continue to be flooding
rains more than gusty/damaging wind.

The HRRR shows activity waning this evening with little more
than some scattered showers remaining after about 9-10PM. With
the easterly maritime flow expected to continue, we will likely
see precip transition into more of a light rain/drizzle scenario.

Mins will stay mild and in the 60s thanks to the extensive and
rather thick low level clouds. as the clouds move in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Saturday looks like it could be a rather gloomy and damp day
over much of the region as the surface high noses in from the
east continuing the maritime flow. By afternoon the best chance
for skies to brighten will be over my far NRN zones perhaps
along the NY border. While temperatures will not be especially
warm, dewpoints well up into the 60s to even mid 70s will make
for a sticky uncomfortable day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong upper ridge will rebuild over the region Sunday through
Tuesday with very warm to hot and humid conditions prevailing
for much of the coming week. Anomalous PWATS spread northward
on Sunday and remain over the region through this period.
Well above normal temperatures, high humidity and scattered
diurnally- driven convection are expected each day under this
regime.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A moist easterly flow will support a rather extensive shield of
MVFR/IFR ceilings along with localized visibility restrictions
due to the scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

The most favorable conditions today will be over the NW part of
the flying area where KBFD will likely be on the western edge
of the MVFR cigs.

Persistent southeast flow, combined with overnight cooling is
likely to result in deteriorating cigs tonight. Model soundings
support the idea of widespread IFR/LIFR cigs late tonight with
occasional light rain/drizzle.

.Outlook...

Sat...AM low cigs/drizzle likely. Slow improvement in the
afternoon.

Sun...AM low cigs likely. Isold PM tsra impacts poss western Pa.

Mon-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Isold PM
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
AVIATION...DeVoir/La Corte

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
522 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-010930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga-
522 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>035-041-042-045-046-049-050-010930-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-
522 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slow moving showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce
localized heavy rainfall amounts of over one inch in just 30 to 60
minutes. Ponding of water in poor drainage areas and rapid rises on
streams and creeks will be possible. The greatest threat for the
heavy rain will be during the mid to late morning hours across the
Central Mountains, and through the mid afternoon closer to the
Susquehanna Valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-051>053-056>059-063>066-010930-
Franklin-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
522 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slow moving showers and scattered thunderstorms will combine
with a nearly stationary frontal boundary and a very moist
airmass to bring the chance for highly localized, very heavy
rainfall in excess of 2 inches within just an hour or two.
The heavy rain could lead to rapid rises on small streams,
along with flooding of poor drainage areas in cities and towns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E MOUNT JOY           40.11N  76.49W
08/31/2018  M9.60 INCH       LANCASTER          PA   PUBLIC

            4 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802231

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
428 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E MOUNT JOY           40.11N  76.49W
08/31/2018  M9.65 INCH       LANCASTER          PA   PUBLIC

            5 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802232

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
429 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW NAUMANSTOWN        40.14N  76.47W
08/31/2018  M8.88 INCH       LANCASTER          PA   PUBLIC

            5 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802233

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW NAUMANSTOWN       40.15N  76.44W
08/31/2018  M9.41 INCH       LANCASTER          PA   PUBLIC

            5 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802234

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW SCHAEFFERSTOWN    40.29N  76.30W
08/31/2018  M8.88 INCH       LEBANON            PA   PUBLIC

            9 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802235

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
435 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N KREUTZ CREEK        40.03N  76.62W
08/31/2018  M6.20 INCH       YORK               PA   PUBLIC

            5 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802236

COLBERT