Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
703 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 12Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Today - Tonight...VFR. Just a few lingering showers and isolated
thunderstorms this morning across the Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads. Drier air continues to filter in today from the north
with some gusty winds. Skies will begin to clear later this
morning/early afternoon from west to east and remain that way
overnight. High confidence.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 453 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

The stronger cold front has pushed off the coast and man was it a
doozy. Convectively driven outflow in tandem with the frontal
passage yielded winds gusts upwards of 65-70 MPH across parts of the
region. A few more showers, all elevated, continue to develop across
the Brush Country and Coastal Plains this morning with small hail
and a few lightning strikes possible. Otherwise we will begin to dry
out through the remainder of the morning hours as northerly surface
winds bring in a much drier airmass.

The drier airmass and breezy conditions give us pause for concern
for rapid fire growth today across much of the region. We peg the
Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains with a critical fire danger for
today/Red Flag Warning as relative humidity values drop into the 10-
20% range. Currently, per TXDFS, only Webb and La Salle Counties
continue to have cured fuels. The other counties in the warning do
show dry fuels for today even with a little bit of early morning
light rain. Current thinking is that the stronger winds, gusts
upwards of 25-30 MPH, and the very low relative humidity values
should help to compensate for the marginal fuel dryness across the
Brush Country. Elsewhere, excluding Victoria, Calhoun, and Goliad
Counties, we do carry an elevated risk for fire growth today...fuels
are wetter here.

Clear skies and lighter winds should allow for chilly overnight lows
tonight. We look to be at least 10 degrees below average for the
lows. Tomorrow looks pretty amazing as we continue with the
northerly flow as high pressure expands across the region. We warm
up a couple degrees from today but the air remains drier so it'll
feel just wonderful.

Marine Interests...

Small Craft Advisory for all our Middle Texas Coastal Waters today
as strong offshore flow develops in the wake of the cold front. Some
deeper mixing is possible over the offshore Gulf waters which may
allow for a brief period of gale force gusts to develop. Confidence
is low at this time of reaching gales so we keep the SCA in place.
Winds and seas will begin to decrease/subside later this evening
setting up a very nice Sunday over our waters.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...

Dry and sunny weather will continue through at least Monday
before return flow resumes and strengthens toward the middle of
the week. Forecast picture for the end of next week looks
unsettled. Models show significant strength and timing differences
with multiple weak disturbances, so will maintain low pops for
day 7 and 8.

Small craft advisories are possible as return flow strengthens
Tuesday and Tuesday night, otherwise no hazardous weather is
expected through the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  51  78  53  79  /  20   0   0   0   0
Victoria          72  42  74  44  78  /  20   0   0   0   0
Laredo            81  52  84  55  86  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             80  48  81  49  83  /  10   0   0   0   0
Rockport          75  55  75  57  76  /  20   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           79  47  80  50  85  /  10   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        80  49  81  50  82  /  20   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       78  59  77  59  77  /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
     zones: Duval...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...
     Webb.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O'Connor.

&&

GH/77...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
633 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-151145-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
633 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Red Flag Warning for the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.

Elevated fire danger for the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-151145-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
633 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small Craft Advisory is in effect through today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Small Craft Advisory conditions possible again Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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