Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
714 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 00Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

Coverage of showers and storms will increase over area terminals
as a cold front moves south and stalls across the region
overnight. Anticipate periods of rain, heavy at times, over area
terminals, especially late tonight/early tomorrow morning.
Coverage of showers and storms will diminish somewhat during the
day tomorrow, but could still see activity at and around terminals
through the afternoon. As the front moves farther south tonight
ceilings will lower to MVFR levels. Could see further lowering of
ceilings and visibilities with any heavier downpours that occur.
Conditions will gradually improve to VFR by the afternoon on
Thursday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

The cold front is making its way south through the Hill Country as
of writing and is expected to move through South Texas through
the evening and overnight hours. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop as this boundary moves into the region.
Deep tropical moisture over South Texas will also allow these
showers to produce heavy rainfall at times. With the frontal
boundary is expected to stall along the coast and west across the
southern Brush Country and omega values increasing along the
boundary, focus for the heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
across this region. And with slow storm motion, heavy shower after
heavy shower may lead to flash flooding for this region as well.
Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the southern
Brush Country and across the Coastal Bend for tonight through
early Thursday morning.

In addition, with little to no CIN, and sufficient instability, a
few of these storms may become strong at times with gusty winds
and small hail.

The front is expected to wash out through the day on Thursday, but
lingering moisture across the eastern two-thirds of the CWA will
continue showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night.

Daytime temperatures for Thursday are expected to cool into the
lower 80s, possibly in the upper 70s across the western Brush
Country, behind the front.

HYDROLOGY...

Flash Flood Watch in effect from 10PM tonight through 7AM Thursday
for the southern Brush Country and the Coastal Bend. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches,
possible over this area tonight.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

The upper level trough axis will continue to sit over the region
through the weekend. The positioning of the right entrance region of
the sub tropical jet over South Texas, combined with a mid-level
disturbance and an associated vorticity maximum approaching south-
central Texas from the west on Saturday will support large scale
ascent across the region through the weekend. Looking at the lower
levels, easterly to southeasterly flow will begin to return to the
region providing ample moisture with PWATS around 2.0-2.2 inches.
Some models are hinting at the remnants of the late week frontal
boundary to develop into a coastal trough on Friday. With the ample
moisture, coastal troughing, and the upper level support, it will
result in a rainy pattern across South Texas through the weekend.

By Sunday, models are progging the subtropical jet and the mid-level
low to gradually slide northward into north-central Texas through
the day, therefore decreasing the upper level support and
diminishing the rain chances slightly. By the beginning of early
next week, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible as PWATs gradually decrease to around and below
2.0 inches, but the mid/upper level ridging will move back over the
region, limiting the rain chances by mid week.

Otherwise temperatures are expected to be below normal with
increased cloud cover and rainy conditions. As things begin to dry
out, temperature will return to near normal by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  83  73  86  75  /  80  50  40  60  50
Victoria          69  82  68  85  72  /  70  50  30  50  50
Laredo            70  79  70  86  74  /  80  50  40  40  50
Alice             72  83  70  86  73  /  80  50  40  60  50
Rockport          72  82  73  86  77  /  80  50  40  60  50
Cotulla           68  79  68  86  72  /  70  40  20  30  50
Kingsville        74  84  71  87  75  /  80  50  40  60  50
Navy Corpus       76  83  76  86  77  /  80  50  40  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun
     Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal
     Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San
     Patricio...Duval...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland
     Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

LB/84...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
436 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-272145-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
436 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Flash Flood Watch in effect from 10PM tonight through 7AM
Thursday for the southern Brush Country and the Coastal Bend.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Some storms may become
strong with wind gusts to 40 mph, small hail, lightning and heavy
rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 5 inches
will be possible. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected Friday through the weekend. Brief heavy rainfall will be
possible Friday into the weekend. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected for Monday and Tuesday. No organized
severe weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-272145-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
436 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Some storms may become
strong with wind gusts to 30 knots, small hail, lightning and
heavy rainfall, leading to chaotic seas and low visibilities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected daily, possibly becoming
numerous over the weekend. Wind gusts to 30 knots along with
brief heavy rain will be possible with the thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
621 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

TXZ231>233-262345-
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-
621 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL GOLIAD...CENTRAL
LIVE OAK AND NORTHWESTERN BEE COUNTIES...

At 621 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pettus, or 14
miles south of Kenedy, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mineral, Tulsita, Karon, Normanna, Pettus, Ray Point, Tuleta and
Pawnee.

LAT...LON 2867 9782 2868 9780 2863 9760 2838 9799
      2852 9820 2870 9791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 283DEG 12KT 2860 9786

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
700 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

TXZ233-234-246-270030-
Victoria-Inland Refugio-Goliad-
700 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN VICTORIA...
SOUTHEASTERN GOLIAD AND NORTHWESTERN REFUGIO COUNTIES...

At 700 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Fannin, or 9 miles southeast of Goliad, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fannin, Oak Village and Coleto Creek Park.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2878 9721 2861 9698 2832 9725 2838 9738
      2839 9738 2840 9739 2839 9740 2841 9740
      2841 9744 2842 9747 2844 9748 2845 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 305DEG 13KT 2857 9728

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
702 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

TXZ229-230-270030-
McMullen-La Salle-
702 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE AND
NORTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTIES...

At 702 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Zella, or 17 miles east of Dilley, moving south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zella, Fowlerton and Los Angeles.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2864 9880 2864 9859 2846 9858 2838 9909
      2865 9897 2865 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 001DEG 11KT 2863 9888

MB