Gale Warning 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Patchy light rain and drizzle along with low visibilities continue
across South Texas early this morning as a coastal trough slowly
shifts northeastward along the coast. A potent long wave trough
near the Four Corners region will deepen over Texas through the
period, bringing a very strong cold front across South Texas this
afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
today ahead and along the approaching boundary, but the primary
weather hazard will be the strong northerly flow and the
plummeting temperatures. Winds will strengthen considerably in the
wake of the frontal passage today, and a Wind Advisory has been
issued for all the coastal counties beginning this afternoon and
running through Tuesday morning. Also, a Gale Warning has been
issued for the bays and coastal waters from late this afternoon
through Tuesday afternoon across the Gulf waters. Winds will
remain elevated through the end of the period. High temperatures
today will generally be in the 60s, before falling into the mid
30s to lower 40s overnight. The combination of the strong winds
and low temperatures will result in wind chill temperatures in the
mid to upper 20s to lower 30s tonight. With this very cold
airmass in place, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s
on Tuesday across the CWA, especially along low drainage areas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

The model guidance continues to indicate a strong and persistent
signal of freezing conditions for Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across all but the coastal/island zones.  This is due to a
1042 mb high pressure area centered over northern Idaho early this
morning advecting southward into the CWA through midweek.  Clearing
skies and weakening northwest winds should allow temps to drop into
the upper 20s to lower 30s for the inland zones on Wednesday
morning. Will likely see a few mid 20s as well especially in the low
drainage areas such as Fowlerton and Cross in the northwest Brush
Country.  As a result, will be issuing a Freeze Watch for the inland
zones for the 06-15Z timerange on Wednesday.  May also need a brief
wind chill advisory for the coastal counties on Wednesday morning.

Another cold night is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning
as the ridge axis moves right over the CWA.  Will likely see
borderline freezing conditions, albeit not as widespread or as cold
as the prior night. Gradual warming conditions are then expected
through the remainder of the week as the airmass continues to
modify. Return moisture is expected to commence on Saturday as the
high pressure area finally shifts east of the area.  Light pcpn will
be possible late Saturday night into Sunday as the return flow
pattern gradually deepens the moisture profile, especially across
the Brush Country and western Coastal Bend. A weak cold front
approaching from the north will also aid in rain chances on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the bays and the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters beginning late this afternoon and continuing across
the Gulf waters through Tuesday afternoon. Strong northerly winds
and building high seas will develop in the wake of a frontal
passage today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible as well during this timeframe. Winds and seas will
finally subside below SCA levels by Wednesday afternoon across all
of the coastal waters. This trend will persist through Friday to
the point where winds and seas will be nearly flat as the center
of the surface ridge axis pushes into the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    64  40  50  31  54  /  40  20  10  10  10
Victoria          58  36  48  28  52  /  40  10  10  10  10
Laredo            63  37  51  30  56  /  30  10  10  10  10
Alice             63  38  50  29  53  /  40  20  10  10  10
Rockport          63  41  51  34  53  /  40  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           61  36  50  28  55  /  30  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        65  40  52  29  55  /  40  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       65  44  52  38  53  /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Tuesday For
     the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...
     Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...
     Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland
     Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces
     Islands.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     For the following zones: Bee...Duval...Goliad...Inland
     Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...
     Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...
     McMullen...Victoria...Webb.

GM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM CST Tuesday For
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Tuesday For
     the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O'Connor.

&&

ANM/88...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
400 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-122200-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
400 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through midnight for area
beaches from Port Aransas southward due to minor tidal overflow
during periods of high tide.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the northern
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the northern
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-122200-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
400 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the coastal waters
tonight.

Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM CST for the offshore
waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Gale Watch in effect Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the coastal waters
Monday.

Hazardous marine conditions will return by Monday evening, with gale
force winds possible over the gulf waters Monday night into Tuesday
and small craft advisory conditions through much of the day on
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

TE