Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

140 
WGUS74 KCRP 152207
FFSCRP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
507 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

TXC273-152345-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180915T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kleberg TX-
507 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
KLEBERG COUNTY...

At 506 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen with additional 
rainfall expected this afternoon. Flash flooding is already 
occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Kingsville, Riviera Beach, Riviera, Ricardo, Malaquite Beach,
Kingsville Naval Air Station and Loyola Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2724 9763 2728 9765 2726 9773 2728 9776
      2728 9778 2724 9784 2724 9791 2756 9787
      2756 9722 2724 9734 2725 9736 2728 9736
      2727 9737 2724 9737 2724 9740 2726 9745
      2725 9749 2724 9749 2724 9750 2723 9754

$$

TC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1234 PM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

A trough will continue to move northwest across S TX leading to
variable wind direction as well as bands of convection throughout
the day and into tonight. Generally expecting VFR conditions this
afternoon with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in and near the
convection. As the trough moves farther northwest, the focus for
the heaviest rainfall is expected to shift west toward the LRD
area this afternoon and evening. Another round of convection is
expected late tonight across CRP to LRD but should begin to see drier
air moving into the VCT area by early Sun morning leading to
lowering rain chances and improving conditions.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1020 AM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z CRP sounding shows a 2.57 inch PWAT. Deep tropical
moisture will continue to advect across S TX today as an elongated
trough slowly moves northwest. This will put the eastern portions
of S TX in the more favorable eastern side of the trough today,
with western areas becoming increasingly favorable for heavy
rainfall through the afternoon. Some instability will also lead to
a few thunderstorms.

For marine concerns, wind gusts up to around 30 knots will be
possible. The atmosphere is also favorable for waterspouts today.
Any heavy downpours will also lead to lower visibilities, making
navigation hazardous.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 AM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...Poor aviation conditions will exist over the forecast
area for the most of the day today. Widespread showers with heavy
rain along and embedded thunderstorms will continue over the
coastal plains today as the area of low pressure near ALI slowly
moves inland. MVFR ceilings will be prevalent over the coastal
plains through the period with IFR ceilings/vsbys expected within
the showers and thunderstorms and even LIFR conditions with the
stronger showers and storms. Scattered showers on the west side of
the tropical wave will increase late this morning affecting LRD
area and continue into the afternoon as the tropical wave
continues to slide to the northwest. The Brush Country should see
convection linger into the nighttime hours as the wave drifts west
of the region. Should see a decrease in convection over the
coastal plains by this evening but MVFR ceilings still expected.
Coastal convergence will lead to scattered showers redeveloping
overnight and affecting the coastal TAF sites with MVFR
ceilings/vsbys.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 AM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

Copious moisture will remain over the region as the tropical wave
slowly moves inland today. Latest analysis shows the surface low
west of Alice with a strong low level convergence axis along the
coast. Strong moisture influx and large scale lift will continue
on the east side of the tropical wave as it moves to the northwest
today. Will continue Flash Flood Watch for entire area today. The
tropical wave will be exiting the western Brush Country this
evening but the region will remain in the favorable region of lift
on the east side of the tropical wave tonight. Expect another
round of convection to develop and move across the Brush Country
tonight. Models show deep moisture will remain in this area with
the precipitable water values around 2.4 inches. With this area
having seen abundant rainfall in the past week, any additional
heavy rain will lead to flash flooding. Extended the Flash Flood
Watch for the western four counties tonight. Hi-res models
indicate there will be another round of showers form in the
coastal convergence zone overnight tonight but the moisture will
not be as high as this morning. The low to mid level low will
continue to drift away from the region to the northwest on Sunday.
But adequate moisture will remain in the area for scattered
convection to develop. Kept chance PoPs over South Texas for
Sunday with higher chances out west. High temperatures will be
slightly warmer on Sunday.

MARINE (Today)...

A moderate onshore flow will continue over the coastal waters
today as the tropical wave slowly moves inland. SCEC conditions
will linger through the day over the Gulf waters as widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms affect the marine areas. Some
of the storms could produce wind gusts to 30 knots at times.

TIDES (Today)...

Tides continue to be elevated this morning with levels running
about 1.4 to 1.5 feet above expected. Tides are around 2 feet MSL
at Bob Hall Pier at this time while Port Aransas and Port O'Connor
are around 1.8 feet MSL. High tide this morning is a broad high
tide that will linger through much of the morning before going
toward low tide. If elevated tide levels begin to show a
decreasing trend, this advisory may be allowed to expire this
afternoon or even be canceled early. High period swells continue
to impact the Middle Texas coast. This will maintain the high risk
of rip currents for gulf facing beaches today.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...

Sunday night through Tuesday...Concur with the ECMWF/GFS
deterministic output that an upper ridge will build over the region
while CWA PWAT values fall to below normal per GFS deterministic.
Nevertheless, will maintain isolated convection over the CWA/MSA.
Wednesday...The upper ridge is predicted to move to the SERN
CONUS (GFS/ECMWF), as an upper trough moves across the Rockies.
PWAT values are predicted to increase to approximately near normal
(GFS.) Will maintain isolated convection. Thursday/Friday...ECMWF
and GFS differ with respect to the amplitude of the disturbance
across the Rockies/Plains. The GFS has more amplitude which
contribute to a cold front approaching TX Friday. Yet, the ECMWF
is more zonal which results in a much weaker front. Nevertheless,
PWAT values are expected to continue to increase to above normal
owing to deep layer onshore flow. Thus, anticipate an increase in
the chance for convection. No marine hazards during the period
(based on WaveWatch output and expected wind.) Expect maximum Heat
Index values around 100F or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  75  88  76  90  /  90  50  40  10  20
Victoria          85  73  90  73  92  /  80  30  30  10  20
Laredo            86  75  89  74  92  /  80  60  50  30  20
Alice             85  73  90  74  92  /  90  50  40  20  20
Rockport          83  76  87  78  88  /  90  50  30  20  20
Cotulla           84  73  89  73  91  /  90  60  50  20  20
Kingsville        85  74  88  75  92  /  90  40  40  20  20
Navy Corpus       85  79  87  79  88  /  90  50  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Goliad...
     Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland
     Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
     Islands...Live Oak...Nueces Islands...Victoria.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning For the following
     zones: Duval...La Salle...McMullen...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

TE/81...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
501 AM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-161115-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
501 AM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible today with numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect today for all of South Texas. Threat for locally heavy
rainfall will shift west into the Brush Country tonight as the
tropical wave moves west. The Flash Flood Watch will continue for
the western Brush Country through tonight.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Middle Texas coast
through this evening. Elevated tide levels will cause minor tidal
overflow around the time of high tide today. Long period swells
will keep a High Risk of rip currents for gulf facing beaches
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms
are expected Monday through Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms again
Friday. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents for gulf
facing beaches Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-161115-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
501 AM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible today with numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms
could produce wind gusts to 30 mph at times today. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms
are expected Monday through Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms again
Friday.

TMT/WC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BONNIE VIEW             28.17N  97.30W
09/15/2018                   REFUGIO            TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PART OF FM 629 IN BONNIE VIEW CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800201

DSV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
248 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW BAYSIDE           28.13N  97.27W
09/15/2018                   REFUGIO            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM2511 4 NNW OF BAYSIDE CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800202

DSV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
253 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE ODEM               27.97N  97.56W
09/15/2018                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 1944 2 NE OF ODEM CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800203

DSV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE ODEM               27.99N  97.54W
09/15/2018                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 2046 4 NE OF ODEM CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800204

DSV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
302 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW PORTLAND           27.90N  97.35W
09/15/2018                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FLASH FLOODING ON MEMORIAL PKWY AND LANG ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800205

DSV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

TXZ242-243-342-343-152030-
Inland Nueces-Coastal Nueces-Coastal Kleberg-Inland Kleberg-
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NUECES AND CENTRAL
KLEBERG COUNTIES...

At 307 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Kingsville Naval Air Station, or 11 miles east of Kingsville, moving
north at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bishop and Kingsville Naval Air Station.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2736 9758 2736 9778 2764 9785 2763 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 181DEG 21KT 2744 9768

TC