Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Deep tropical moisture will remain over the region
through the period. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
will continue this morning. Convection over the Brush Country is in
proximity to weak low to mid level low north of Laredo and assisted
by weak low level convergence over this area. Convection along
the coast is in a region of convergence along the coast and being
assisted by weak divergence aloft ahead of an upper trough over
northeast Mexico. Chaotic ceilings exist across the region with
the convection over the area. IFR ceilings/vsbys will be possible
early this morning at LRD/VCT while MVFR conditions will occur
over the coastal plains. IFR vsbys are expected in the stronger
showers/storms. Coverage in activity should wane over the Brush
Country by the afternoon while focus lingers over the coastal
plains. Will maintain MVFR ceilings as prevailing through the rest
of the period. Will keep VCSH in for the latter part of the
afternoon into early evening. Convection is expected to increase
during the overnight hours for coastal areas with MVFR conditions
expected.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 455 AM CDT Mon Sep 10 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Deep tropical moisture remains in place across the region with
precipitable water values above 2.4 inches. The weak low to mid
level low was near Laredo while the upper trough axis is still to
the west over Coahuila. The upper flow will be weakly divergent
over the region as this upper trough slowly moves east. Low level
convergence is increasing over the coastal areas at this time.
With heavy rainfall over the Brush Country the past couple of
days, the soils have become saturated. Any additional rainfall
will lead to flash flooding. Expect the threat for higher rain
amounts will be near the coastal convergence zone with the
activity sharply increasing over the past couple of hours.
Extended the Flash Flood Watch for the Brush Country through 18Z
and expanded it to cover the coastal counties also. This area
could see rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with rainfall rates of
3 inches per hour. Hi-res models depict the convective activity
could diminish some by this afternoon with the showers and storms
moving toward the upper Texas coast. Will keep rain chances high
in the afternoon but this may be optimistic. Convective
redevelopment may occur more toward this evening over the coastal
areas. Can not rule out more rainfall near the weak mid level low
near Laredo also.

The upper trough axis will remain to our west through the night
into Tuesday with the best lift expected to be over the coastal
areas late tonight into Tuesday. Will show the higher PoPs in this
region. Dependent upon rainfall received today but coastal areas
may see locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding problems again
later tonight into Tuesday.

The wet weather pattern will continue across South Texas through the
period, with the concentration of higher rain chances shifting more
towards coastal areas by the mid week.  High precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches shift slightly more to the east, but
will remain over the northwestern Gulf and our eastern counties
through the mid week.  Ridging briefly tries to push in from the
northwest, but rather unsuccessfully, as weakness in the flow aloft
and then inverted troughing develops over the region again through
the rest of the period. This in conjunction with a surface trough
will bring continued rain chance to the area.  The National
Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of disturbed weather
southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with a 30% chance of
development over the next five days as this area moves into the
western Gulf of Mexico.  At this time we know that higher tropical
moisture (PWAT 2.2-2.4 inches) will push back into the region, and
rain chances will continue into the late week/weekend.  Temperatures
will be fairly persistent with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the region and lows in the 70s overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  73  86  75  89  /  90  70  70  50  50
Victoria          82  72  85  73  89  /  80  70  70  50  50
Laredo            84  74  88  75  91  /  90  50  40  20  30
Alice             84  71  88  73  90  /  80  70  50  40  40
Rockport          83  75  83  77  88  /  90  80  70  50  50
Cotulla           83  71  87  73  90  /  90  50  40  20  30
Kingsville        83  73  88  75  90  /  80  70  60  40  40
Navy Corpus       84  77  84  79  89  /  90  80  70  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...
     Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...
     Duval...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...
     Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
     Islands...La Salle...McMullen...Nueces Islands...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

TMT/89...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
516 AM CDT Mon Sep 10 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-111100-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
516 AM CDT Mon Sep 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 1 PM this afternoon for
the Brush Country and the coastal counties of the Middle Texas
coast.

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected across
South Texas today into tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with showers and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across South Texas
through much of the upcoming week. Some storms may produce heavy
rainfall, dangerous lightning, and wind gusts up to 40 mph. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-111100-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
516 AM CDT Mon Sep 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected across
South Texas today into tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms could
produce wind gusts up to 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across Middle
Texas coastal waters through much of the upcoming week. Some storms
may produce heavy rainfall, dangerous lightning, and wind gusts
up to 40 mph. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

TMT/LB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
334 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAREDO                  27.53N  99.49W
09/10/2018                   WEBB               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER RESCUES OCCURRING IN NORTHWEST LAREDO AT MINES
            ROAD/FM 1472, AND LAS CRUCES/BRISTOL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800164

LBEAL