Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
312 PM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track slowly east across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight, forcing a cold front across the forecast area.  High
pressure will move across the Upper Ohio Valley Monday, then move
off the SE coast Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Currently there is low pressure over SW Lower Michigan with a cold
front extending SW into TN.  Ahead of the low a warm front extends
SE into Central Ohio.  Models in reasonably good agreement with the
low tracking across the Lower Great lakes tonight, then moving off
the Mid Atlantic Coast tomorrow morning.  Expect widespread rain
showers tonight with the system.  An isolated rumble of thunder is
not out of the question with the cold front, but best chance of
thunder south of the forecast area.  There will be some lingering
showers in the east Monday morning, but high pressure builds in
Monday afternoon putting an end to the rain.  As far as temperatures
expect lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to around 40.  The
highs Monday will range from the low 50s in the west to the
mid/upper 40s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge is finally expected to build into the eastern
United States to bring a reprieve from the wet dreary weather we
have been experiencing the last couple days; albeit short.  The
large surface high pressure that is expected to dominate the entire
eastern United States will push east off the eastern seaboard
Tuesday night.  The good news is this will place the forecast area
on the warm side of the high pressure allowing a warm front to lift
northeast across the area Tuesday night as well.  Vertically stacked
upper level low pressure system just north of Minnesota will force a
surface cold front east over the area by Wednesday morning. The
front is expected to stall and become a stationary front by
Wednesday evening.  A series of weak low pressure systems will track
northeast along the front during this time.  A deep digging upper
level trough will dive into the central United States by Thursday
causing surface cyclogenesis to occur over northeastern Texas.  This
low will tap into some Gulf of Mexico moisture and track northeast
along the stationary front.  The moisture already in place with the
cold front and the moisture associated with the low pressure system
will feed copious amounts of moisture into the local area.  Rain
will begin to spread into the area from west to east Tuesday night
ahead of the cold front.  A threat of rain will persist through
Wednesday night and begin to amplify again Thursday with the
advancing low pressure system.  This scenario appears to be shaping
up for a fairly good overrunning situation ahead of the low.  Storm
total rainfall amounts at this time appear they could exceed 2.5
inches; especially in the southwest portion of the forecast area.
Will have to monitor this situation for possible flooding issues by
mid to late week with this system.  Mild temperatures will return in
the warm air advection flow by Wednesday but will settle back
Thursday as cold air advection in the wake of the low pressure
system occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad upper level trough will be over the central U.S. for the end
of the week. A shortwave will be moving across the area Thursday
evening. The 12z GFS is faster on the movement and placement of this
system than the 12z EURO. We have leaned more on the timing with the
EURO and keeping rain chances likely through Thursday night. Another
shortwave will be quickly moving on Friday and Friday night
lingering into Saturday. We will keep around the clouds and
scattered chances for showers through the weekend. Temperatures will
be near seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front across Central IN will move across the forecast area
this evening. The showers ahead of the front just into MFD. This
evening will be rainy with MVFR and IFR in the heavier showers.
South flow will turn to the west-NW this evening behind the
front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible at times through Monday and again
Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will need to hoist a small craft advisory for tonight through Monday
night as low pressure tracks east across the central Great Lakes.
The low will force a cold front through the area this evening and
this will cause winds to increase behind the cold front to 20 to 25
knots sustained.  The wind max behind the cold front will shift
gradually east up the lake overnight and it will take some time to
arrive at Erie and Ashtabula Counties.  So, will split the lake up
into thirds to account for transition of the stronger winds.  Winds
will gradually diminish through mid week.  Surface high pressure
will build east across the deep south extending a ridge north across
the lake Tuesday into Wednesday.  A cold front will shift east
across the lake Wednesday.  Low pressure will track northeast
Thursday along the front causing winds to increase Thursday into
Thursday night out of the northeast. Flow will shift around to a
westerly direction by Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LEZ148-149.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LEZ144>147.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Lombardy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-290815-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
411 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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